(Registration is an important feature as we look for opportunities to get to 2/3. Thanks for organizing all this data! – promoted by Brian Leubitz)
The Secretary of State has just published new voter registration statistics. Compared to the February 10 update, there were 115,300 fewer voters in California on March 20–46,445 fewer Democrats, 41,538 fewer Republicans and 23,295 fewer decline-to-states. Democrats now make up 0.03 percent more of the electorate than they did in February (now 44.55%), while Republicans make up 0.03 percent less (now 31.10%) and Decline to States have remained virtually unchanged (at 19.99%).
At the county level, Republicans have lost ground to Democrats in 36 counties, and gained on Democrats in 21. One county, Napa, has remained perfectly unchanged. The Republican registration advantage in Orange County, for example, has shrunk from 12.21 percent in February to 11.84 percent now. Similar leftward shifts (percentage-wise) are occurring in San Mateo, Alpine, Yolo, Sierra, Tuolumne, San Bernardino, San Francisco and Imperial counties. The only comparable Republican gains are in Kings and Madera counties. If the Orange County rate of Democratic relative growth continues (it most certainly won’t), Democrats will outnumber Republicans in Orange county by 2012.
In the State Senate, there are 14 districts where the incumbent party has been losing its relative share of voters since February–nine currently held by Republicans (SD-01, SD-12, SD-14, SD-15, SD-17, SD-18, SD-29, SD-33, SD-35) and five by Democrats (SD-05, SD-16, SD-25, SD-26, SD-39). Only SD-12, SD-15 and SD-17 are competitive. All three of those are held by Republicans and all three already have Democratic registration majorities. SD-12 is the only one of these seats that is up in 2010 and is almost certainly the only 2010 Senate race that will be even close to competitive (Democrats have a 14.04 percent registration edge). SD-04 is theoretically possible to flip if we get a very, very strong Democrat (Republicans have an 11.05 percent registration advantage); but we’d probably wind up with a Democrat like Bob Nelson or Evan Bayh who’d vote against the budget anyway. Our best chance at 2/3 anytime soon is for Maldo or Strickland to quit.
Assembly details over the flip….
In the Assembly, there are 50 districts where the incumbent party is losing ground. Among potentially competitive districts, there are nine such districts, all of which are currently held by Republicans: AD-03, AD-05, AD-25, AD-26, AD-33, AD-36, AD-37, AD-38, and AD-63.
POTENTIALLY COMPETITIVE ASSEMBLY SEATS
| District | Incumbent | REG | DEM | GOP | DTS | Margin | Net change since 2/10/09 | 2008 Result | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD-03 | Logue (R) | 252,208 | 87,806 | 34.81% | 101,274 | 40.15% | 48,085 | 19.07% | R+13,468 | R+5.34% | D+86 | D+0.03% | R+11.2% |
| AD-05 | Niello (R)* | 256,796 | 97,395 | 37.93% | 99,633 | 38.80% | 48,752 | 18.98% | R+2,238 | R+0.87% | D+68 | D+0.03% | R+16.2% |
| AD-10 | Huber (D) | 254,048 | 99,891 | 39.32% | 100,078 | 39.39% | 43,767 | 17.23% | R+187 | R+0.07% | D+97 | D+0.04% | D+0.3% |
| AD-15 | Buchanan (D) | 304,961 | 123,827 | 40.60% | 110,067 | 36.09% | 59,691 | 19.57% | D+13,760 | D+4.51% | D+133 | D+0.06% | D+4.6% |
| AD-25 | T. Berryhill (R) | 241,469 | 88,962 | 36.84% | 102,138 | 42.30% | 38,773 | 16.06% | R+13,176 | R+5.46% | D+91 | D+0.02% | R+19.6% |
| AD-26 | B. Berryhill (R) | 202,966 | 85,327 | 42.04% | 79,603 | 39.22% | 29,854 | 14.71% | D+5,724 | D+2.82% | D+108 | D+0.06% | R+3.6% |
| AD-30 | Gilmore (R) | 130,882 | 60,607 | 46.31% | 47,986 | 36.66% | 17,582 | 13.43% | D+12,621 | D+9.64% | R+330 | R+0.24% | R+1.6% |
| AD-33 | Blakeslee (R)* | 227,227 | 81,597 | 35.91% | 92,649 | 40.77% | 41,248 | 18.15% | R+11,052 | R+4.86% | D+214 | D+0.03% | R+27.8% |
| AD-36 | Knight (R) | 225,302 | 89,133 | 39.56% | 87,069 | 38.65% | 38,347 | 17.02% | D+2,064 | D+0.92% | D+183 | D+0.08% | R+3.2% |
| AD-37 | Strickland (R)* | 256,682 | 92,041 | 35.86% | 106,279 | 41.40% | 46,644 | 18.17% | R+14,238 | R+5.55% | D+199 | D+0.07% | R+4.4% |
| AD-38 | Smyth (R) | 261,799 | 96,437 | 36.84% | 104,766 | 40.02% | 49,014 | 18.72% | R+8,329 | R+3.18% | D+92 | D+0.03% | R+10.0% |
| AD-63 | Emmerson (R)* | 245,320 | 92,967 | 37.90% | 98,997 | 40.35% | 43,398 | 17.69% | R+6,030 | R+2.46% | D+366 | D+0.13% | R+8.8% |
| AD-64 | Nestande (R) | 244,838 | 88,421 | 36.11% | 102,404 | 41.83% | 43,116 | 17.61% | R+13,983 | R+5.71% | R+893 | R+0.36% | R+100.0% |
| AD-65 | Cook (R) | 249,598 | 92,701 | 37.14% | 102,542 | 41.08% | 42,446 | 17.01% | R+9,841 | R+3.94% | R+54 | R+0.02% | R+6.6% |
An * signifies a term-limited incumbent.