All posts by strategist

Running into a brick wall in state legislative races?

Democrats haven’t picked up a state legislative seat in California since 2000, when they won the 24th and 28th Assembly seats in Saratoga/Los Gatos and Salinas, respectively.  They also picked up Mike Honda’s South Bay Area Congressional seat that year.

In 2002, Democrats pushed through a redistricting plan to protect incumbents in the state legislature, and gerrymandered Senate District 12 for Rusty Areias.

This didn’t stop Republicans from picking up two Assembly seats and the 12th Senate District seat in 2002.

Republicans take lessons from Howard Dean

Ironically, it is the California Republican Party that has taken note of the success of Howard Dean’s 50 state plan, and has moved in 2007 to give significant early resources to eleven counties in strategically targeted regions.

A review of first quarter spending reports  by the California Republican Party shows that the following counties are getting $4,000 a month.   Some have already hired full-time, paid coordinators:

Northern CA
Placer County

Bay Area
Alameda, Contra Costa, and Santa Clara counties

Southern CA
Orange, Ventura and Los Angeles Counties
San Diego and San Bernadino Counties

Central Valley
Fresno and Kern County

Democratic Party activists have been pressuring Chairman Art Torres to commit similar resources to regional party-building.  This would be a big shift from previous election cycles, where funds were spent mostly on central campaign staff and consultants, media and mailers.

Financial resources appear to be similar for both the California Republican and Democratic Parties — the Republican party raised $4.9 million in the first quarter,.while the California Democratic Party raised $4.6 million.

(Full reports on the FPPC CalAccess website)