(Great analysis on the voter pool. – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

So one of the arguments I’ve been seeing against gay marriage is that the 2000 ballot initiative Prop. 22 showed what the “will of the people” is.  Except… a closer look at what happened back then makes it more ambiguous as to what will actually happen this November.

First, yes, Prop. 22 passed, 61.4%-38.6%.  But it wasn’t on the ballot in November 2000, but rather in March 2000, in the primary election.  Now, here’s the thing.  By then, Al Gore had already clinched the nomination against Bill Bradley, so there wasn’t really an impetus for Democrats to go vote (much like you’re seeing the GOP say now for McCain).  Meanwhile, the race between Bush and McCain was still going on, though winding down.

And so, you had this situation where, in a blue state like California, Republican turnout well exceeding Democratic turnout.  3.2 million people voted for Democratic candidates (almost all for Al Gore), while over 4.1 million voted in the Republican primary, which Bush won by less than 400,000 votes over McCain.  (And WTF, Lyndon LaRouche listed as a Democrat??  Ewwwwww.)

Now, as to how each party voted, the best we have is the exit poll (.pdf) from the L.A. Times.  And the results may surprise you.

Blacks were actually MORE in favor of banning gay marriage than whites were.  58% of whites voted in favor of Prop. 22, while 62% of blacks did so, and 65% of Latinos did so.

Among Republicans, as you would expect, 80% voted in favor of it.  But among Democrats, it wasn’t anywhere near 80% voting against it.  In fact, only 57% of Democrats voted against it, with 43% voting in favor of it.  And Independents went for the proposition too, 58%-42%.  While 74% of liberal Democrats voted against it, among moderate Democrats, it was a blowout in the other direction, with 61% of them voting in favor of banning gay marriage.  Moderate Republicans were actually less inclined to support it, with Prop. 22 only getting 56% of them.

And since people are bringing up religion, it was the Protestants, and not the Catholics, that broke heavily in favor of banning gay marriage.  75% of Protestants voted for the ban, while only 59% of Catholics voted for it.  Conversely, 76% of Jews voted against the ban.

Regionally, the Bay Area was the only part of California where there was more opposition to the ban than support, if only barely.  51% voted against it in the Bay Area.  Even in Los Angeles County, it easily passed with 58% voting for it.  And the rest of California voted for it at an even higher clip.

So there’s your baselines from 2000.  Had it been a “normal” primary that March, where both parties still had actual primaries to compete in, the numbers would’ve been closer, but Prop. 22 still likely would’ve passed, given how many moderate Democrats were voting in favor of it, and given how it also easily won among Independents.

So, what does that portend for 2008?  We’ll see.  Certainly young people now are much more open to gay marriage than older folk, so if they turn out in record numbers for the general election too, that’ll be a big swing in shooting down the proposed constitutional amendment.  Also, Arnold Schwarzenegger coming out against the ban now is going to play a role, though it remains to be seen just how big of an impact his voice will have in this.

The recent SurveyUSA polling shows promise, with it tied as to whether they supported the court’s decision.  But something’s odd… while young people agreed with the court’s ruling 50%-38%, you have 51% supporting amending the state constitution to keep marriage between a man and a woman.  Those numbers seem to be flipped.  Perhaps the wording of the question was confusing, and people thought you had to amend the constitution to allow gays to get married?

Anyway, these numbers show in what areas the pro-gay marriage groups are going to need to work on to stop the amendment this November.