In a very insightful look at the (expected) 2008 primary campaign with Assemblymember Mark Leno challenging incumbent Senator Carole Migden, Randy Shaw writes:

Migden’s inability to mount a serious challenge to Leno’s slate of delegates for the California Democratic Party convention reflects her disconnection from the city’s activist base. For a sitting Senator to field a slate, then abandon the slate, then deny she ever tried to run a slate, is not a good sign for her chances against Leno in the June 2008 primary.

There was a surreal feel to Leno owning the very same room where Migden once ran Democratic Party Central Committee meetings with an iron fist. But as Shaw notes, the upcoming primary race will be about far more than the traditional San Francisco fight over who is the most left.

More and more, I believe it is important to judge primary campaign candidates on three axis:

Left – Right
Grassroots – Top Down
Forward – Back

While there may not be much difference between Leno and Migden on the first axis, I think only looking at the traditional stances on issues is a very superficial way to view the race (but I’m sure we’ll see many articles on how they are both gay and similar on the issues).

On the second axis, Shaw is correct in noting the disconnect between Migden and the SF activists. While a few years ago many would have assumed that the fallout from the Leno/Britt primary would have lingered, Leno has so impressed San Francisco’s activists that many of Britt’s biggest supporters have nothing but great things to say about Leno. Even more, Leno has significant approval from members in both the Milk and Alice clubs — a feat deserving a peace prize.

But the third axis may have even more contrast. Shaw sums this up nicely:

Why have people encouraged Leno to run against a fellow Democrat for the State Senate? The late Miquel Contreras, whose leadership of the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor starting in the mid-1990’s soon transformed the city into a pro-labor stronghold, offered the best explanation in a similar context.

Contreras drew some criticism when he backed Democratic State Senator Hilda Solis against an incumbent Democratic Congressperson Marty Martinez, who had an 80% pro-labor voting record. Contreras said labor would no longer be content to support politicians who simply voted right, instead “we want warriors for working people.”

Mark Leno has proved a warrior for progressive causes in the Assembly, and many San Franciscans want the city to have a fighter for its interests in the State Senate. In contrast, Carole Migden is so disinterested in fighting for her constituents that she abandoned the powerful role as chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee so she could devote her full energies to Steve Westly’s campaign for the Democratic nomination of Governor.

That’s not a misprint. San Francisco’s chief representative in the State Senate cared more about advancing the political career of the multi-millionaire Westly than she did the economic interests of her own constituents.

This is what Matt Stoller calls the bar fight primary and this axis is the one that has become far more important during the Bush era. Phoning it in isn’t good enough. Activists don’t want leaders to pay their dues, they want them to aggressively lead.

Looking at the full picture of the race, it is clear that Leno is viable (if not heading into the race with an advantage). Throw in Joe Nation minimizing the North Bay vote and I think Leno is the front-runner.

When I filled out the online form to run for delegate, I viewed it as an insurance policy.  I just wasn’t sure how many people were planning on running and who was planning on running.  Sure SF is a pretty darn progressive city, but this is probably the most political city that is not a capital city.  And you know, it’s probably more political than most capital cities.  So, just because there are a lot of progressives here doesn’t mean that progressives won’t get out maneuvered.  Hey, it happens.  I put my name up in order to help ensure that progressives would grab those seats.

However, ultimately, the battle in AD-13 will end up being a bizarre one. You probably saw the diary by alecbash about Mark Leno’s slate for AD-13.  What Alec didn’t mention is the competing slate of Senator Carole Migden and the pissing match started by a the good senator becoming involved in the caucus. The prospect of a Migden slate sent SF politicos into something of a tizzy.  Well, I’ve now heard that Senator Migden has pulled her slate.  For whatever reasons that she may have, it seems that we have avoided at least one ugly battle on a secondary front.  Wow, I sound like some bad journalist from the 19th century. 

However, I am a Mark Leno fan, after all, he is the man that whipped the votes on the gay marriage legislation.  And as for Migden, she is generally a good progressive.  I will not fault her for that.  However, her antics  are a bit over the top. Leno has provided real leadership for our community, and I laud him for that.  (Warning: Debra Saunders (writer of the above-linked story, is a right-wing shill, but the voting for Guy Houston incident happened.) While I think improvements could be made to the slate (which you will find over the flip), it is a solid one.  I think he missed some really good people.  Alix Rosenthal, who’ve I written about during her quest for the D8 Supe seat, is great. Nicole Rivera, who has done some really important field work in CoCo cty for the ’06 election and for the OC Supe race, would also have been a good choice.

On the male side (I still think the bifurcation is stupid), well, Leno’s slate is fairly solid.  Of course, I’m on that side, and you can still feel free to vote for me (Brian Leubiz/Leubitz).  However, I’ll be supporting Leno’s slate (full listing over the flip).  If you’d like more details about the slate or about my opinions on the CDP, shoot me an email.

The following is from the Leno folks:

WHEN: Sunday, January 14th, 2007
Registration and Voting begin at 2:00PM
Official Program begins at 3:00PM–but arrive no later than 2:45PM (doors close promptly at 3:00PM).  You do not have to stay for the program in order to vote starting at 2:00PM.

WHERE: The State Building Auditorium, 455 Golden Gate Avenue (between Polk and Larkin)

WHAT:  Come support me and the rest of Assemblyman Leno’s unified, gender-balanced, community-representative team of Assembly District 13 for election to the California Democratic Party Central Committee:

Our Team has 6 Women:
– London Breed, Exec. Director African-American Arts & Culture Complex, Vice President SF Redevelopment Agency Commission
– Kamala Harris, District Attorney
– Jennifer Longley, SF Young Democrats, California Young Dems Women’s Caucus Officer
– Hydra Mendoza, Board of Education Member
– Eva Royale, Labor leader (UFW) & Dolores Huerta Foundation
– Leah Shahum, SF Bicycle Coalition Director & SF Municipal Transportation Agency Board Member

…and 6 Men:
– Jeff Anderson, Alice B. Toklas LGBT Democratic Club Board Member
– Alec Bash, President, DemocracyAction
– Dan Enrique Bernal, Speaker Pelosi’s District Director
– David Chiu, Small Business Commission, CEO Grassroots Enterprise– technology firm for political & non-profit organizations
– Toye Moses, President, African-American Democratic Club
– Michael Sweet, President, Raoul Wallenberg Jewish Democratic Club

A while back I addressed the possibility of a primary battle between Mark Leno and Carole Migden for SD-03, the state senate seat that encompasses most of San Francisco (although, even though I’m in Leno’s assembly district, I’m in Yee’s Senate seat) and a portion of Marin.  The Bay Guardian’s blog  said that Leno had told a local Dem club that he was planning on running.  I’ve been told by somebody close to the Assemblyman that no such decision has been made. 

However, that does not mean that the relationship isn’t colder than July in San Francisco.  Little proxy battles are emerging between the two in some sort of pissing match.  The battle ground these days? The Assembly District Covention of course.  The two are said to be preparing rival slates.  While I know that several other districts will have heated competition, few will rival the craziness of AD-13.  Last year, 13 people ran for the 12 seats.  This year, 57 people are running.  Last year, no frenzy.  This year…oh boy. 

Of the 57 people scheduled to run, you might know some of the names.  Kamala Harris, SF’s District Attorney.  Sarah Low Daly, Supervisor Chris Daly’s wife.  Alix Rosenthal, a candidate for supervisor last year, and that’s just from the female side.  (By the way, isn’t this male/female bifurcation all very 4th Grade.)  Given the well-known affinity between Daly and Migden, one would expect to see Mrs. Daly on Migden’s ballot.

If you go to the list of candidates that I mentioned above, you will notice that I am on that list.  (Apparently I, or somebody who transcribed my name, mispelled my name as Leubiz rather than Leubitz. Ah well.)  I haven’t really been promoting myself on the blog, partially because I figured something like the dueling tickets might happen.  But with the new filing requirement, it was prudent to make sure that if I wanted to run, I could still have that opportunity at the meeting. 

I’m not really going to actively campaign, or form some alternate ticket to the Leno/Migden tickets or anything like that.  Rather, I’m going to go, speak for my one minute (and boy will I rock the house for those 60 seconds…j/k), and do a whole shitload of listening.  And quite a bit of smiling, as this is going to be some wild, wild stuff.  It might be a preverse waste of time, but it will be fun.  So, I strongly advise any registered Dems in the 13th (map here) to come on down (information link here, and in the extended) to the meeting at 2pm on Saturday the 14th at the California State Building’s Milton Marks Auditorium (455 Golden Gate Ave.).  You’ll definitely have a good time.  Oh, and as for me, yeah, feel free to vote for me as well.  I think I would bring an interesting perspective.  If you’d like to talk more with me about it or if you are going and would like to let me know, shoot me an email.