(The real reason behind the Feb. primary? – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

X-posted at California Notes

Legislative leaders and the Governor are determined to move California’s Presidential primary from June to February 2008, and I am still convinced they are doing it for purely personal political reasons and not to give the state more clout. Legislation to move the primary (SB 113) cleared the two Senate committee hearings on votes of 3-0 and 11-1. It pains me to say it, but the only Senator who had the good sense to vote against it is a Republican, Dave Cox. It now goes to the Senate floor where we can only hope for the bill’s demise, but that looks like even a remote possibility.

Frank Russo likens SB113 to a speeding train.

“SB 113 is a fast train with no curves or other obstacles on the track—at least ones that will slow it down. The proponents of the February primary, which include the leadership of both houses and the Governor are taking no chances on anything that will delay it from becoming the reality.”

More on the flip.

But it isn’t the early primary that interest them most, but rather the potential to alter term limits and give them all more time in Sacramento. The plan is to pass a term limit change in time for them to run in the regular June ’08 primary which will still go on as planned, sans the Presidential race.

Moving the Presidential primary will probably depress turnout June, but the ramifications go beyond voters sitting out one of three elections in 10 months. Candidates who are scheduled to be termed out in ’08 are making decisions about their next step right now, and aspirants are lining up to run in the open seats.

Here’s an example of the mess this could bring. In the 8th Assembly District, Lois Wolk, at the moment, is termed out and has her eyes set on the 5th Senate seat held by also termed out Mike Machado. But, if term limits are changed next February, Machado could continue in the Senate and Wolk in the Assembly. That’s not bad, but if Wolk wants to run in what could be a hotly contested Senate primary, she needs to be able to start planning now. The same goes for any challengers.

Imagine that you’re on the outside wanting to run for a seat that is scheduled to be open. You declare your candidacy, start raising money, put a stellar team together, and make a substantial investment. You like the person who is in office, and would be just fine with them continuing, but the law won’t allow it, so with the blessing of the incumbent you declare your candidacy for the soon to be open seat.

Then, four months before the primary term limits are changed and the incumbent is allowed to run again, and does. Because you like the incumbent, who is of your party,  and has done great things in office, you don’t want to put them out and face the reality you probably couldn’t anyway. So, after a major investment, months of work, and thousands of dollars raised and spent, you decide not to run. 

The entire dynamic changes if a change in term limits happens in February ’08, and leaves very little time to make adjustments before the June ’08 primary. If you thought our elections were screwed up now because of term limits, just wait and see how screwed up June ’08 will be if we make this change this way.

If the goal is to move the primary so California has more clout, do only that and leave off the term limit and redistricting initiatives. That won’t happen because the real reason for an election in February is to change term limits. The Presidential primary just happens to be convenient.

Term limits should be repealed altogether. They’re horrible and do nothing to make government better. As a matter of fact, since term limits things have only gotten worse. So, repeal term limits, but make the repeal effective only for incoming legislators. Then, current legislators would show that they want them repealed because it is the right thing to do, not because they benefit by lengthening their stay in office. It could be done in such away that after sitting out a term, the formerly termed out legislators could run again under the new rules.

Doing this gives us a change in term limits, but doesn’t screw up a whole election cycle for challengers and others. It also goes a long way to convince many of us that they really do want the Presidential primary earlier for the sake of California’s clout.