So, you know what I really hate, when computers crash. That really bugs me, although I think this one was kind of my fault. But I’m still going to blame it on the Mac. Anyway, before I crashed I had this great little rant going about the polling data. Long story short, Phil is down by about ten. But he’s not giving up, and neither should we. It’s been said here before that we can just liken him to Bill Clinton and get some of that Comeback Kid Mojo. And that’s great stuff, but I think there are more reasons than just plain hope to indicate that we have miles yet to go before we can call this one.
Reason #1: Seriously, do you people (and more importantly all you people who don’t read this) really think Phil is going to get less than 40%? Really? I’m sorry, but that is not going to happen. The Democratic nominee will get 40, more likely 45% just for having a D after his name. And as the crosstabs from the polling show, Phil is a little weak in the Democrats. But that won’t last. These Dems who are thinking of straying over to Arnold, well most of them will come home. I’ve said this one for a long time, and it’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
Reason #2: There are a lot of pissed off people out there, many of whom are outside polling companies’ target audience. For one, let’s look at PowerPAC’s new poll. It polls native Spanish speakers. These are people that won’t respond to surveys and/or won’t be asked because they answer the phone in spanish. While the polling organizations won’t show that these are your typical “likely voters”, these people will vote.
How do I know they’ll vote? Well, they really, really don’t like Arnold. They think he is something of a bigot. From PowerPAC:
69% holding a negative view of him, but he is also seen as untrustworthy. 73% of these voters said they do not trust Schwarzenegger to represent the interests of the Latino community…68% of these voters said the recent comments by Gov. Schwarzenegger, in which he referenced a Latina Assemblywoman as being “very hot” due to her “black blood mixed with Latino blood” were insensitive or racist, with only 26% agreeing the comments were “mostly harmless,” as was the primary reaction portrayed in the media.
You don’t think those people will turn out to vote? I think they will. Now, most of these people don’t know who Phil Angelides is, but they do know that he is anti-Arnold, and that seems to be enough to support him at a 64% clip 6 weeks out from the election.