That’s the verdict according to a J. Moore Methods poll that dropped over the weekend and that found its way into my hands this afternoon. Remember that this is an open primary – if someone gets more than 50% they win; if not then the top candidates from each party go to a runoff. According to the poll, Lt. Gov. John Garamendi leads among likely voters (36% have no opinion):
| Garamendi | Rupf | DeSaulnier | Buchanan | |
| Support: | 24 | 17 | 13 | 10 |
| Known: | 80 | 20 | 39 | 45 |
| Favorable: | 35 | 9 | 16 | 17 |
| Unfavorable: | 12 | 9 | 13 | 12 |
(Rupf is Republican Warren Rupf, Sheriff of CoCo County)
The personal ratings are included, which show that Garamendi also has a big name ID and favorability advantage over all his challengers. Voter turnout is projected to be 30%, with 55% Dem, 33% Rep, and 12% DTS.
Of course, Garamendi doesn’t have a 50% lead here, and the election hasn’t even been scheduled yet. There’s time for either DeSaulnier or Buchanan to try and catch up, but it’s going to be a difficult climb. Garamendi’s high public profile and ability to raise money for this campaign will be significant advantages. DeSaulnier, a solid progressive who would also make an excellent member of Congress, can counter with strong on-the-ground support, but it’s unclear if that can trump Garamendi’s built-in advantages.
This leads me to wonder if Buchanan plans to stick around in the race – I can’t see her getting very far against this kind of opposition. Or perhaps DeSaulnier might step back and let Garamendi take it. So far as I can tell, however, both fully intend to continue their run.
Neither Anthony Woods nor Adriel Hampton were included in this poll, but I can’t imagine either one would meaningfully impact the outcome.
So as far as I can tell this is Garamendi’s to lose. We’ll see if this poll shifts the landscape at all.
How was the sample weighted (gender, party, geography)? Was the pollster gender neutral by only identifying last names? Did the pollster read the bios of the candidates and how were they termed (positive, negative or neutral)?
Ruff being at 17% makes me raise these questions.
Very few politicians understand the depth of the economic problems we face and their roots starting from policies in the 1950s as well as DeSaulnier. One of the big pleasant surprises at the convention, I have to say.