This year’s California primary was intended to be unusual for several reasons, not just the move to February 5. It was a common assumption that more voters would choose to vote by mail, and that those voters would be sending in their ballots early, forcing the presidential campaigns to shift their tactics accordingly.

But how is it actually working out? The answer depends on where you are. In Santa Clara County, where more voters (56%) are registered as vote-by-mail than any other high-population county, it seems to be business as usual. From the Mercury News:

Historically, about 25 percent of absentee ballots are dropped at polling places or the registrar’s office on Election Day. And so far, there doesn’t appear to be a lag in votes already cast in Santa Clara County or statewide, officials say. Weir said some counties are even seeing a bigger early vote count than normal, while Santa Clara County officials say the flow is about normal at roughly 4,000 a day.

While down here in Monterey County, most folks seem to be waiting. From the Monterey Herald:

Despite requesting a record number of absentee ballots for California’s Feb. 5 presidential primary, most Monterey County voters are hanging onto them, apparently still undecided whom they will choose as their party’s nominee.

As of Friday, county Registrar of Voters Linda Tulett said fewer than 11,000 absentee ballots had been returned out of 81,000 issued, with a little more than two weeks to go until the state’s primary.

What these articles suggest is that the  assumption that vote-by-mail people would send in their votes early as they committed to a candidate just isn’t happening. Instead a larger number of voters seem to be waiting to see what happens in the earlier states, their votes driven by media perceptions of who is “viable” and who is not. Although California’s votes may help determine the outcome, California voters are still depending on the earlier contests, and we may still act merely as a coronation.

The hope that the earlier primary date would get candidates to pay more attention to Californians and Californian issues doesn’t seem to be paying off either. Leon Panetta, former Clinton Chief of Staff and director of the Panetta Institute at Cal State Monterey Bay, expects campaigns to conduct less expensive but high targeted campaigns:

Leon Panetta said he believes the candidates in both parties have already spent so much money trying to build momentum in the early states that they’re starting to watch their budgets and focusing their campaign efforts on the areas of maximum return, both in terms of votes and money….

“I think they’re beginning to watch their dollars and cents,” Panetta said. “This is probably going to be the most targeted campaigning that we’ll see until the general presidential election (in November).”  [From the Monterey Herald article]

While the candidates will be spending more time in California over the next two weeks, they’re also going to have to spread their attention to other important states like Ohio, Illinois, New York, and other places. Meaning that we can expect the CA primary to be won through a combination of GOTV and media buzz.