Tag Archives: exit poll

Exits… and Double Bubble Trouble

CNN’s exit poll is here.  It seems to have wildly undersampled African-Americans, who didn’t make up 1% of the vote.  But as you can see, Clinton was dominant.  She even won young people (likely because of young Latinos).  And she took women by 25 points and Latinos by more.

… thought I’d add to this by explaining some things about the Double Bubble Trouble that has led to the potential disenfranchisement of a bunch of DTS voters in LA County.

There are 700,000-some DTS voters, but they didn’t all vote in the primary.  LA County registered 46% voter turnout yesterday, and my guess is that DTS voters are less likely to come to the polls.  Let’s say 40% of them voted; that’d be 280,000 voters.  And it’s completely unclear how many of them neglected to fill out that extra bubble that said “Democratic.”

I can say this: based on the current vote count, the most likely scenario is that it will not result in changing one single solitary delegate.  Maybe if a bunch of DTS voters in CA-31 or CA-36 went for Obama it’d shift something, but it’s unlikely.

That’s not a reason not to fight for every vote, however, and there are efforts afoot to do that, and it will be done, and those votes will eventually be counted, and this will be fixed for the future, as long as we keep talking about this and keep identifying the problem.