If the candidate is Mike Lumpkin, victory in November is not only possible, but perhaps likely.  Granted, there is still a primary election in June, but at a forum last week hosted by the League of Women Voters, Vickie Butcher proved once again that she had no command of the issues.  For much of the debate she seemed lost and unable to formulate a coherent answer for questions on healthcare, the economy and the war on terror.  It was painful, at times, to watch her struggle with issues on which she clearly had not researched.  Though a pleasant and accomplished educator, Vickie Butcher is simply over her head in this race.  As dismal as her prospects for congressional success are, however, those of Mike Lumpkin not only give Democrats encouragement, but the best likelihood for victory since 1980 when a young Duncan Hunter edged out a victory against a Democrat incumbent by the name of Lionel Van Deerling.

Lumpkin is a retired Navy SEAL Commander with both combat and leadership experience.  Those qualifications alone will earn him a significant number of cross-over votes, which will be necessary in the conservative 52nd.  If that isn’t enough, he is moderate and pragmatic on the issues and can pull off what Duncan Hunter was unable to do in his entire time as the district’s representative-provide fair representation to all citizens of the district, not just those who support his campaign.

Lumpkin’s campaign will not be an easy one, however.  Though Duncan Hunter is relinquishing his seat, his name may still be on the ballot.  Duncan D. Hunter, Jr. has moved back to California to keep the seat in the family, though not without a fight.  His strongest opponent in the Republican primary-Brian Jones-is mounting an aggressive, but bleak grassroots campaign.  Jones has not been intimidated by the Hunter dynasty and has repeatedly attacked Jr. for his lack of commitment to curb the use of earmarks.

Any of the Republican candidates will have to face a formidable Mike Lumpkin in the General.  The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which will help fund the top 29 congressional races in order to attain a super-majority in the House, has recently upgraded Lumpkin’s campaign from 20 to 14 and considers his resume the best of any congressional candidate in an open-seat race.  Additionally, a recent Rasmussen poll suggests 2008 is not going to be a good year for the Republicans.  He’s the underdog now, but keep an eye on Mike Lumpkin.  His will be the race to watch.