The 2008 California Assembly District election results are in, and Democrats have picked up Assembly Districts 15, 78, and 80, and lost Assembly District 30.
Riding a tidal wave of new Democratic registrations in California, Assembly Democrats had high hopes of getting closer to a 2/3s majority, and poured a huge amount of money into the top races.
An analysis shows relatively little movement in the Democratic performance in most districts since 2004, but two districts in Southern California showed significant trends.
The Secretary of State’s office has yet to publish a breakdown of the Presidential vote by Assembly District. However, a comparison with the vote for Barbara Boxer in 2004 shows the election results follow that vote fairly closely.
Below are the most competitive open seats, ranked by the 2004 vote for Boxer, and with the 2008 vote for the Assembly District candidate for comparison.
| District | Candidate | Boxer Vote | 2008 AD Vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| *78 | Marty Block | 57.9% | 55.0% |
| *80 | Manny Perez | 57.5% | 52.9% |
| *15 | Joan Buchanan | 52.6% | 52.9% |
| 30 | Fran Florez | 49.8% | 48.3% |
| 26 | John Eisenhut | 48.6% | 48.3% |
| 10 | Alyson Huber | 48.1% | 46.2% |
*pickup
In most of these races, the AD candidates are slightly underperforming the 2004 Boxer vote. The exception is Joan Buchanan in Assembly District 15. Buchanan may have been helped by demographic changes in the district.
Two races in Southern California showed signicant improvement over 2004, and could be targets for 2010.
| District | Candidate | Boxer Vote | 2008 AD Vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Linda Jones | 44.7% | 48.1% |
| 37 | Ferial Masry | 48.0% | 48.5% |
Jones may have been helped by Democratic trends in San Bernadino County, and Masry by the state Senate campaign and Democratic voter registration efforts in Ventura County. Both Ventura and San Bernadino counties turned blue this year.