I noticed this little gem from Stu Rothenberg in Political Wire this morning:

Technology obviously changes campaigns, and one day YouTube, Facebook and the Internet overall may determine who wins and who doesn’t. But for the 2008 cycle, it’s still those dreary “old media” that matter, no matter how many people want to get ahead of the curve and how creative and interesting the new technologies of the day. (Politcal Wire 3/20/07)

So, nope, it doesn’t matter. Try all you want, but nothing on the net will matter. Why? Because Rothenberg says so! Follow me over the flip…

However, at least he does throw some cold water on DC consultant types:

But at the end of the day, the YouTube ad will be a footnote about the campaign. It’s yet another example of the tactical nature of this 2008 campaign, and while tactics can and do matter, the Democratic race will be decided in Iowa and New Hampshire by a relative handful of Democratic participants, not by Washington, D.C. insiders who are all aflutter with the latest hip happening.

But, just so you don’t take Rothenberg’s prediction skills too seriously, how about this golden oldie:

But as national political analyst Stuart Rothenberg points out in a recent blog post, Democratic pollsters are pushing a lot of polls that show second- and third-tier candidates performing surprisingly well.

“If most of these challengers win, the Democrats will gain 30 or 40 House seats,” he wrote. “Obviously, that’s unlikely. Extremely unlikely.”(CoCoTimes 10/08/06)

That last quote was in the context of a story dismissing Jerry McNerney’s chances to take down Richard Pombo. How did that work out exactly, Stu?

From Stu Rothenberg’s lips to God’s ears. It looks like official Washington is accepting the frame of a likely Democratic takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Our latest race-by-race review of Congressional districts around the country convinces us that a Democratic wave is building and that the party is poised to take control of the House of Representatives in the fall. The only question now is the size of the November wave….

That’s a recipe for a GOP disaster, and there is no reason to believe that things will change dramatically between now and Election Day to improve Republican prospects.

At the district level, voters are more critical of Republican incumbents – and supportive of even unknown Democratic candidates – than they usually are at this point in the election cycle. GOP candidates are running behind where they would be in anything approaching a “neutral” year. While some firming of the Republican base is likely over the next ten weeks, that alone may not be enough for the party to retain the House.

Strong fund raising by the DCCC should mean that some Democratic candidates won’t face the huge financial discrepancy that they have in the past, though RNC money should boost the Republican ground game nationally….

Therefore, we are raising our estimate of likely Democratic gains from 8-12 seats to 15-20 seats, which would translate to between 218 and 223 seats – and a majority – in the next House.

I never like to count chickens before they hatch and there is a lot of work to be done between now and November, but when an established figure like Stuart Rothenberg publishes a report like this, you have to know he reflects a consensus of the current political scene. Stay tuned!