Welcome to the Poll Headquarters.  We’ll be posting notable
Polls
and Endorsements here. The dates are the date of release to the public,
not the dates of survey. The Governor related polls will be in the
main, congress, down-ballot, and other polls will be in the extended. Here
are the polls with primary data. If you know of any
additional polls, let me know. Thanks!

California Governor Polls

Phil Angelides (D) vs. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)

Descriptions:

Field California Polls

The dates are the date of release to the public, not the dates
of
survey. The Field Poll is the gold standard of California political
polls. I always trust the Field Poll when it’s in conflict with
another.

Rasmussen California Governor Polls

The Rasmussen poll is a computer polling operation. Its
results are
a little more questionable within California and can sometimes be
skewed towards the political right.

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) and L.A. Times
Polls

The LA Times poll and the PPIC poll also have polls on down
ballot
races. I didn’t summarize them here, but click the links for the full
PDFs. The PPIC is known for in-depth research, and their survey guru,
Mark Baldassare, is highly respected for his statewide surveys. The LA
Times is, well, a major media organization. I’ll leave it at that.

Survey USA Governor Approval
Pollshttp://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=1137993a-c120-4ea6-bc97-017dd6931c94

Are on the flip. There are lots of crosstabs available at
their website. 

Many of the links are PDFs.

Poll/Candidate	Angelides	Schwarzenegger	U/DK	Other	MoE
Zogby 9/28/06	33.8	43		12	±3.5
PPIC 9/26/06	31	48	15	6	±2
SUSA. 9/27/06	38	52	9	1	±4.5
Field 9/26/06	34	44	15	7	±3.8
Datamar 9/18/06	31.4	53.6	3.6	11.4	±2.3
Rasm. 9/12/06	39	47	14		±4.5
Zogby 9/06	40	43.5			±3.5
Rasm. 8/31/06	42	48	10		±4.5
PPIC 8/06	32	45	17	6	±2
SUSA. 8/28/06	38	52	8	1	±4.5
Zogby 8/06	40.3	45			±3.5
Rasm. 8/1/06	41	47	12		±4.5
PPIC 7/06	30	43	19	8	±2
Field 7/25/06	37	45	15	3	±3.8
Zogby 7/06	44	42.3			±3.5
Rasm. 7/13/06	46	44	10		±4.5
SJSU 7/6/06	37	44	14	5	±3.3
Zogby 6/06	44.6	44.5			±2.7
Datamar 6/5/06	34.3	53.5	12.2		±2.46
Field 6/2/06	39	46	11		±3.8
LA Times 5/26/06	46	45	8	1	±5
Rasm. 5/24/06	45	45	10		±4.5
PPIC 5/06	38	38	24		±2
Rasm. 4/17/06	36	49	15		±4.5
Field 4/14/06	40	44	13		±3.8
LA-Times 4/28/06	43	43	13	1	±5
SJSU 4/4/06	37	40			±3.3
PPIC 3/06	29	41	30		±2
Rasm. 3/23/06	45	44	11		±4.5
Field 3/2/06	39	39	20		±3.8
Rasm. 2/13/06	40	41	19		±4.5
Rasm. 1/24/06	39	41	20		±4.5
Rasm. 12/15/05	44	40	16		±4.5
Field 11/3/05	47	41	12		±3.8
Field 9/7/05	43	40	17		±3.8
Field 6/29/05	46	42	12		±3.8
Field 2/25/05	35	52	13		±3.8

S-USA Schwarzenegger Approval

The actual Survey USA site has the ability to do demographic
breakdowns.

California Proposition Polls

Infrastructure Bonds

Poll/Prop	1B: Transp.			1C: Housing			1D: Educ			1E: Disaster			84: Water
	Yes	No	U/DK	Yes	No	U/DK	Yes	No	U/DK	Yes	No	U/DK	Yes	No	U/DK
Field 9/29/06	52	36	12	58	28	14	52	33	15	51	36	13	50	30	20
Datamar 9/06	55.9	31.2	12.9	34.5	53.9	11.7	41.4	46.6	12.0	60.8	27.7	11.5	47.6	36.3	16.0
PPIC 8/06	50	38	12	57	32	11	51	39	10	56	35	9	40	45	15
Field 7/28/06	54	27	19	33	42	25	48	37	15	47	33	20	49	31	20
Field 6/5/06	57	24	19	39	38	23	48	34	18	58	25	17	N/a	N/a	N/a
PPIC 5/06	62	32	6	60	37	3	74	22	4	62	34	4	N/a	N/a	N/a

Other Initiatives

Poll/Prop	83: Sex Offenders			85: Anti-choice			86: Cigarette Tax			87: Oil & Alt. Energy			90: Em. Dom.
	Yes	No	U/DK	Yes	No	U/DK	Yes	No	U/DK	Yes	No	U/DK	Yes	No	U/DK
Datamar 9/06	79.4	13.0	7.6	48.5	42	9.5	52.1	41	6.9	43.4	44.0	12.6	61.3	24.0	14.7
Field 8/2/06	76	11	13	44	45	11	63	32	5	52	31	17	46	31	23
PPIC 7/06	N/a	N/a	N/a	N/a	N/a	N/a	N/a	N/a	N/a	61	23	16	N/a	N/a	N/a

Down Ballot Polls

Candidate	Field Poll 8/1/06 (MoE: ±5.2)
Lt. Governor	Poll Support	Favorable	Unfavorable	No Opinion
John Garamendi (D)	48	46	17	37
Tom McClintock (R)	38	40	17	43
Attorney General	Poll Support	Favorable	Unfavorable	No Opinion
Jerry Brown (D)	54	45	36	19
Chuck Poochigian (R)	33	9	7	84
Secretary of State	Poll Support	Favorable	Unfavorable	No Opinion
Debra Bown (D)	38	10	6	84
Bruce McPhereson (R)	35	19	9	72
Treasurer	Poll Support	Favorable	Unfavorable	No Opinion
Bill Lockyer (D)	52	43	16	41
Claude Parrish (R)	27	9	5	86
Controller	Poll Support	Favorable	Unfavorable	No Opinion
John Chiang (D)	38	13	5	82
Tony Strickland (R)	27	11	8	81
Insurance Commissioner	Poll Support	Favorable	Unfavorable	No Opinion
Cruz Bustamante (D)	43	38	43	19
Steve Poizner (R)	39	7	8	85

The Field Corp has released two major polls in the last two days.  The first (PDF) was a poll on Gov. Schwarzenegger involving his approval ratings, his budget, and the bond proposals.  His approval numbers are up to 40% with 49% disapproval.  His bond package is heavily supported: 56% for to 27% against. However, one must take this for what it is.  It doesn’t compare other plans to the governor.  So what they are really polling on is whether we need to do infrastructure improvement through a bond program.  It would be interesting to see a poll with a comparison plan allowing for choices between the various bond proposals.  However, that’s not likely to come as the deadline for the June ballot is rapidly approaching.

The more recent poll (PDF) concerned the gubenatorial campaign.  Currently Steve Westley has a four point lead on the Governator, which is within the MOE (+/- 6%).  Angelides is tied with Schwarzenegger at 39%.  However, Ahnold’s “unlikely to vote for” group decreased from 55% to 47%.

Last year at about this time, a 56% majority of voters said they were inclined to re-elect Schwarzenegger as this state’s Governor. However, since then voter opinions of the Governor have soured considerably. In four subsequent Field Poll surveys conducted since then, the proportions of voters inclined to re-elect the Governor have dropped to the 34% to 39% range. The current survey finds just 37% favoring his re-election at this time, 47% not inclined to support him and 16% undecided. This represents a decline in the percentage of voters disinclined to reelect the governor compared to October and an increase in the proportion undecided.
One factor working against the Governor is that only 65% of Republicans are inclined to back him for re-election, 14% are disinclined and an  unusually large 21% are undecided. (Field Poll 3/2/06)

The effects of the union barrage following the Special Election are fading somewhat.  While Arnold is attempting to pull off a new modeate appearance, the electorate is not totally sure how to treat him.  His cozy relationship with McClintock scares some voters (it does me anyway) and the unions haven’t really forgiven him.  On Tuesday’s California Report (KQED), Art Polaski, E.D. of California Labor Federation, claims that he’s still waiting for the Governor’s phone call.  And until he makes peace the unions, it will be hard for Schwarzenegger to win any elections, special or otherwise.