March 16, 2006 CA Blog Roundup

Californa Blog Roundup for March 16, 2006

All on the flip…

That’s it for today. Use the comments to let us know of other bloggy California goodness.

Preview of November: the CA-50 debate – w/ pics & fact check!

(We’re all about CA-50 right now. And we particularly appreciate CarlsbadDem crossposting from DailyKos. – promoted by jsw)

YOU need to care about the CA-50 race (featuring our candidate Francine Busbydonate), because is the best preview we have of how all the other races will go this November.

The candidates debated tonight, let me tell you what happened–with pictures!–below the fold:

In attendance were: Brian Bilbray (R), Bill Boyer (R), Francine Busby (D), Richard Earnest (R), Paul King (Lib), Scott Orren (R), Eric Roach (R), Alan Uke (R) and Chris Young (D – sort of). Much to my disappointment (probably would have made for some good laughs), two Republicans in the lead pack, Howard Kaloogian and Bill Morrow, were not in attendance.

Here is the lineup (in that order, from right to left of the image):

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Sing along with me now, “One of these things is not like the other!” All those greyish suits and there’s our Busby standing toe-to-toe and standing out in a good way!

FYI, the Republican front-runners are Bilbray, Roach, Kaloogian, Morrow and Uke (in that order), so watch out for their responses–if we don’t support Busby, they could be in YOUR congress voting on YOUR issues!

First, the fact-checking. Of course there were too many to pick out everything, but these were some of the more egregious ones.

  • Brian Bilbray: Asked, Did Bush violate the 4th ammendment when he wiretapped US citizens, and if yes, should he be held accountable?” Bilbray spent his entire response harping (literally he was much more passionate than usual and speaking in a very raised voice) on the fact that people say “domestic” wiretapping, but (he claims) that only international-international and domestic-international, not domestic-domestic calls were tapped. (He dodged the question of whether this broke the law.)
  • TRUTH: The Washington Post reported (Feb 5) that some purely domestic calls were monitored.
  • Alan Uke: On the same question, Alan Uke claimed that every president since and including Washington, has used domestic spying during wartime.
  • TRUTH: Whatever the history pre-1978, the passage of FISA clearly changes the landscape when it comes to whether such actions are legal. Clinton, Carter, and other presidents post-FISA have not violated that law. Bush’s spying–relative to the law at the time–is unprecedented.
  • Eric Roach: Asked his opinion on abortion, Roach said he’d “never seen a pro-life bill he wouldn’t support.” He said those words very, very carefully and deliberately, so I can’t believe he wasn’t trying to specifically refer to the South Dakota legislation. He also argued that “you make your choice before” (when you have sex).
  • TRUTH: The South Dakota bill does not include an exception for rape. So, when did rape victims make their chioce?
  • Roach: He also claimed that we could have border guards posted 24/7 on the US-Mexico border so densely that they could hold hands with each other, across the whole border, for the same cost as our current border enforcement programs. But “special interests” aren’t letting it happen.
  • TRUTH: wtf?

I’m not going to bother fact-checking the lesser-known candidates.

Ok just for fun, here are the signs I’ve seen out so far:

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Oh yes, that is Busby with by far the coolest design. How embarrassing for Bilbray and Uke to show up wearing the same colors. I guess there are only so many color combinations to go around when you have a dozen candidates. Ok but seriously now, there is something to notice on these signs that relates to the debate: the messages that are on some of them. Bilbray’s says “Proven Tough on Illegal Immigration,” which has been the central (only?) issue of his campaign, and frankly a central issue in this whole race (this being San Diego and all). Note that Uke’s also refers to immigration, “For a more secure America” (that will be interpreted by people here as war on terror as well as immigration). This is the kind of thing that should get our attention: Roach’s and Morrow’s both say “Conservative for Congress” instead of “Republican for Congress.” Two front-runners running as fast as they can from the Republican party, the party of imcompetence and corruption, the party of Katrina, Terri, Iraq, deficits, oil compaines and medicaid cuts. CA-50 is a red district by registration count, and they are running scared from their own party’s label. Not hard to understand why (ahem: 33%), but this is the kind of thing that helps me sleep at night. Read on for more distancing from Republican failures.

Other highlights of the debate:

  • Roach asked himself the rhetorical question, “Are we better off than we were X years ago?” (forget what he said exactly for X) And he answered it NO. There you have it folks, Republicans have already conceded the Nov elections! LOL! (one of many examples of them running away from their party’s record)
  • Young, the other “Democrat” in the race, used her opening statement to brag about how there is something missing from her campaign web page (very much on purpose)–her party affiliation. Nice. She then went on about how Duke was and is a patriot, and nobody should talk about his “tragedy” as part of this race. Riiiiight…
  • Roach was clearly dying to play his emotion card: he used to work in the WTC and knew some people who died there. He trotted that out twice but it came across pretty awkward–didn’t quite fit but he went with it anyway.
  • On the domestic spying question, Orren said simply, “He didn’t violate the law, he is the president.” NICE. The other Republicans’ answers were depressingly similar. Even Boyer, who at least had the honor to start his answer with a big, loud “Yes! [he broke the law],” qualified it by saying he got bad advice, and his motives were pure. ALL said almost word for word that we have to support the Commander in Chief during wartime.
  • ENERGY: Bilbray supports drilling in ANWR. But most of the Republicans were sounding almost like Jerome a Paris on the question, “How can we become energy independent?” Earnest laid out a bold agenda for getting off foreign oil completely in 15 years. Boyer said if he had his way, this would be the #1 issue at the federal level. Even Bilbray said we should be more like France (haha! I thought that was the ultimate Republican taboo), ie using nuclear energy, a point echoed by several others. And Roach wanted us to use biofuels like Brazil. (yo! another example of them running like mad from their party’s record)
  • Every candidate bemoaned earmarks and the out of control spending of this congress. Some even openly admitted it was their party that was out of control. (Roach is especially trying to make himself out as the one who will restore the “true” Republican party, often invoking Reagan.)
  • Bilbray said in resposne to the question, “Would you bring our troops home?” that when you give a speech on the floor of the House, “the enemy is listening” and you have to be careful you “don’t give aid and comfort to our enemies” by making them think we might leave Iraq. Ugh! Not that old canard!
  • One of the Repubs (I didn’t get his name) is a Vietnam veteran, and in response to the same question, he said we treat Iraq war veterans as badly as Vietnam veterans, only we give (phony) lip service to supporting them and honoring them. It was a very sincere and bitter complaint, and he went on to list some specific problems like veterans benefits cuts. Ouch!! So much for Bush’s/Republican’s “supporting the troops” advantage.
  • The South Dakota Effect?? Republican Party has MaryScotts? Amazingly, many of the Republicans sounded like Democrats on the abortion question (notable exceptions of Roach and Bilbray). Earnest sounded almost like MSOC, raising his voice almost to a yell to say, “At the end of the day, government should stay out of the bedroom, out of the living room! [not sure what he was refering to there, maybe the sofa? heehee]… It is between themselves and their mate!…” Uke gave unqualified support to Roe v. Wade, and said if it were overturned (which he didn’t support) he would support legislation to implement in effect the same system as Roe v. Wade. Orren and another R seemed deeply uncomfortable with the subject, staring down at the table while they spoke and stumbling, both saying that although they were personally pro-life and very conflicted, they agreed abortion was needed in society (Orren’s wife is a neonatal nurse and he said she told him stories and cases and he has come to realize it is a very complicated issue). King complained that abortion is such a big fundraising issue, and said it was personal and politicians should just stay out of it. Even Bilbray complained about politicians talking about it as a “black and white issue” (although that came across way less sincere than the others’ statements I thought). As far as interpreting what this means for the rest of the country and November, I think there are two main possible interpretations: (1) note the two front-runners were the exceptions, so maybe there are tons and tons of people who identify as Republicans who are pro-choice and not represented well by their party and not being allowed to seek office in the party, or (2) South Dakota and other recent overreaches past the sensibilities of even most people who consider themselves “pro-life” is turning the political tide in the country.
  • Roach was the only one to come out swinging for the fences on the abortion question. He went on and on about the first time he saw a sonogram of his pregnant wife. As noted above, he said he had never seen a pro-life bill he wouldn’t support. Bilbray was also in contrast to the other apparently pro-choice Republicans, saying ‘partial birth abortion’ is “as close to infanticide” as anything he had heard of, and noted he had voted to ban it when he was previously in congress.
  • Uke got a nice one-liner in against Young, whose ENTIRE argument for her candidacy and qualifications is that she is a 6th generation San Diegan, and this-and-that was named after her family, blah, blah. Everyone was sick of her bringing that up. Anyway, Uke turned to her (she was sitting next to him) and said, “I can beat your story, I’m part Cherokee.” Haha! It actually worked against Uke because the audience laughed and applauded so long that it cut way into his limited time for his closing statement.

Now for a summary of Busby’s star performance:

  • On the domestic spying question, Busby stood strong saying, “Nobody is questioning if he broke the law. He made a decision not to follow [FISA].” Thank you! So tired of the whole is-he/isn’t-he–nobody has seriously put forth that he didn’t break the law (except apparently Bilbray, Uke, Roach and Orren).
  • On the Iraq war, she went back to her campaign theme of honesty, that she introduced in her opening comments, “Honesty means knowing what is going on in Iraq.”
  • On abortion, Busby is pro-choice. She said it is simply not (or shouldn’t be) a federal issue. Obviously, she supports comprehensive sex ed and she also emphasized the need to provide adequate healthcare to all women regardless of means, to help prevent unwanted pregnancy (as well as the need for access to healthcare for more people in general).
  • On budget and corruption (closely tied), Busby has a “Clean House” plan she introduced last fall.
  • On energy independence, Busby noted that the other governments who the Republicans were fond of citing, had actually made energy independence a genuine priority (go figure!), unlike Republicans in congress.
  • Busby closed with a moving account of her story of going from nothing–no money, no infastructure, to build one of the largest grassroots teams in the country for a congressional candidate, all because she just started speaking her mind on the terrible direction she saw this country going, and shd found that “what I was saying is what people were feeling.” She said she is running as a “mom,” a woman, a regular citizen who is fed up with what she sees going on in Washington. That pretty much sums it up!
  • Afterwards, I heard people talking about how they just loved Busby’s sincerity, attitude and story. This is really a very strong intangible selling point for her as a candidate. She has that “It” that makes people want to trust her and feel energized about supporting her.

Well, anyone else who was there can fill in below in the comments. My fingers are getting tired. =)

PS: This was originally posted at dailykos, where I also did this diary about how the North County Times’ letters to the editor are overwhelmingly and enthusiastically in favor of Busby (all related letters of the past 2 weeks are there for reference).

A Tiny Bond deal perhaps?

The Legislature is back at it again:

Steve Maviglio, spokesman for Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, D-Los Angeles, said the Assembly was to consider placing two measures on the June ballot: a $10.4 billion bond to build schools and upgrade universities, and an undetermined amount to repair the state’s fragile levee system.(AP-Sac Bee)

Well, at least the levees get some attention.  It is a shame that the GOP couldn’t manage its caucus.  The state would have been better off with an investment in its infrastructure.  It is too bad that the GOP can’t put the people of California first.

Also, watch out for deadline hijinks.  It’s really not clear what the actual deadline is.

CA-50 New Poll

A new poll that gives a very comprehensive look at the congressional race in the CA-50 was made public today. The poll conducted by Competitive Edge provides extensive insight into both potential voter preferences and the key issues from the voter’s perspective.

If the poll is an accurate predictor, Democratic candidate Francine Busby will garner the most votes in the April 11 Special Election, but she will fall short of the 50%+1 requirement for election and will be forced into a run-off with Republican former congressman, Brian Bilbray.

On April 11th, there will be a special election in the 50th Congressional District. If that election were held today and you had to vote, would you be voting for . . .

Francine Busby, Democrat, Trustee, Cardiff School Board 33.5%
Brian Bilbray, Republican, Immigration Reform Consultant 14.8%
Eric Roach, Republican, Businessman 7.9%
Howard Kaloogian, Republican, Charitable Trust Attorney 7.1%
Bill Morrow, Republican, California State Senator 4.7%
Alan Uke, Republican, Business Owner 3.6%
Bill Hauf, Republican, Businessman 1.5%
Chris Young, Democrat, Retired Bank Executive 1.2%
Richard Earnest, Republican, Business Entrepreneur 1.0%
Another Candidate 1.1%
Unsure (Not read) 23.4%

More poll results follow.

In a head to head race, Bilbray has a slight edge of Busby with 19% of the respondents undecided. Busby has a resounding edge over all of the other Republican hopefuls in head to head match-ups, except for Eric Roach, where she is dead even.

From an issues perspective, this group of likely voters put dealing with illegal immigration at the top of their list of congressional priorities.

Now I’m going to read you a list of issues your next member of Congress may be faced with. Please tell me which one you would like to see them working hardest on.

Stemming Illegal Immigration 21.8%
Restoring Ethics and Integrity to Government 21.6%
Improving Healthcare and Prescription Drug Benefits 15.6%
Holding the Line on Federal Spending 15.2%
Fighting the War on Terror 14.8%
Improving Local Transportation and Roads 6.7%
None of The Above / All of the Above / Unsure 3.4%

These results have to be disappointing to Bill Morrow and Howard Kaloogian. Despite their reputations as high profile conservatives, with roots in the district, more than a third of potential voters had never heard of either man.

The millionaires club of Uke, Hauf and Earnest faired even worse than the veteran politicians, with a “never heard of” response from 50% to 75% of likely voters.

There is still lots of campaigning to go and the millionaire candidates are heavily into television advertising, but it certainly looks like this is shaking out to be a two horse race between Busby, the reform minded Democrat and Bilbray, the guy who had to go to court to keep his real profession, lobbyist, from showing up on the ballot.

Poll of 802 “likely” voters.

CA-24:Now He’s Out/Now He’s In…Now He’s Sick/Now He’s Not

Well the Republican incumbent, Gallegly, has dropped out too late and now has jumped back in….it’s like watching a tennis match. What illness could have driven him out that got cured that quick but still may not allow him to move at ‘1,000 miles an hour’? Hmmm….sounds like a campaign theme to me….

<Sigh>….my neck hurts from this one. And I bet his ass hurts from the kicking it got between last week and this one. My best bet is that he wins the General then resigns and causes a Special Election. <Sigh> We’re getting used to those…ask Francine Busby in CA-50.


Here’s the story from CQPolitics (sub)

CA 24: Gallegly To Run After All

      

This is an updated version of a story that was first posted on March 15 at 4:38 p.m.

California Republican Rep. Elton Gallegly announced this afternoon
that he will seek an 11th term this November — ending the confusion
caused by his sudden and ultimately unsuccessful retirement
announcement last Friday, just hours before the candidate filing
deadline in California’s 24th District.

Gallegly, who attributed his initial retirement decision to health
concerns, said at a press conference in Washington that he was given a
clean bill of health by John Eisold, the attending physician of the
Congress. Gallegly, 62, declined to specify his condition beyond saying
that medical examinations showed that “there is no catastrophic issue
that we have to deal with.”

Gallegly said some symptoms are persisting that that will keep him
from running “1,000 miles an hour,” but emphasized that he is “100
percent” and would wage an aggressive campaign for an 11th term — which
he also said would be his last.

“I will give it my full vigor the next two years as I have the previous twenty years,” he said.

Gallegly, who filed to run for re-election in February, had announced his
retirement under the mistaken belief that he could withdraw from the
ballot and that the candidate filing deadline would be extended by five
days. Neither action is allowed under state law. Upon learning this,
Gallegly said he spent “five days working” and “thousands of dollars
trying to find another way” to extend the filing deadline.

Gallegly said he received a call early today from President Bush,
who left a message inquiring about his health and urging the
congressman to run again if he felt well enough. Gallegly missed the
call but spoke with White House deputy chief of staff Karl Rove, Bush’s
top political adviser, who followed up on the president’s message and
assured Gallegly that the president was offering his full support for
Gallegly’s re-election.

Gallegly also used the press conference to quash some rumors
surrounding the circumstances leading up to his unusual announcement
last Friday. One was that Gallegly spoke to five potential successors
before announcing his retirement; the congressman said this was not the
case.

Rep. David Dreier, who represents California’s 26th District and
chairs the Rules Committee, said that the California GOP delegation is
“gratified” that Gallegly has decided to run and that Republican
leaders will support his campaign. Dreier and other House Republicans
from California appeared with Gallegly at Tuesday’s press conference.

Gallegly will face lawyer Michael Tenenbaum in the June 6 GOP
primary. Tenenbaum, 37, planned to challenge Gallegly from the outset
and has criticized the incumbent’s record on fiscal policy.

Some local Republican officials who endorsed Tenenbaum after
Gallegly said he would retire may rescind their support now that
Gallegly has reversed his position. Gallegly said that he has received
calls from people who originally endorsed Tenenbaum but assured the
congressman that he is their preferred candidate.

Gallegly is favored to win re-election in the primary and in
November would face Jill Martinez, a Presbyterian minister and
affordable housing activist who is the only Democrat in the race.
President Bush in 2004 won 56 percent of the vote in the 24th District.

CQ rates the race as Safe Republican. Please visit CQ’s election forecaster for ratings on all races.