Daily Archives: March 26, 2006

Bay Area

New CA-50 poll

Thanks to sdpolitics blog where I found this. It is a new poll for CA-50.

Highlights: Francine Busby has the highest ‘favorable’ rating by far at 38% (next highest is Bilbray at 23%), as well as the lowest ‘unfamiliar’ rating at 20%. Hey, not bad for the candidate the San Diego Union-Tribune dismissed as just a “soccer mom.”

More highlights: Roach’s ‘unfavorable’ is the highest of the R’s at 24% (Busby’s ‘unfavorable’ is 26%, but as the only Dem in the race it is understandable that some hardcore Duke Cunningham Republicans are venting against her).

Check out the whole thing, I don’t want to plagarize too much here! Note: Be sure not to miss the full crosstabs by education, party, etc.

(parts of this are crossposted from dkos)

Blog Roundup

Blog Roundup, 3/26/06: Immigration

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Today’s blog roundup is pretty much going to be about the remarkable reaction to H.R. 4437, the Minuteman House Republican attack on Latinos in the guise of immigration reform. Other blog posts which I’ve seen today will be in tomorrow’s roundup.

A mea culpa is in order here. I have not been writing much on immigration issues, because I don’t feel qualified to do so. It’s a complicated problem, with many contributing factors, and with a lot of emotion on all sides. Clearly, I will have to correct my ignorance.

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Dick Pombo – Lies, Lies, Damned Lies

The AP put out an interesting story about Representative Dick Pombo today. The story is a pitiful fluff piece that goes out of its way to be kind to Pombo. In fact, the story goes out of its way to insure that one of Pombo’s most obvious lies goes unchallenged.

According to the AP story, little Dicky Pombo decided to go after the endangered species act because of the economic impact of the law on local development in Northern California.

 

In the early 1980s, he was upset when the presence of the endangered San Joaquin kit fox contributed to stopping development of a proposed town outside Tracy. After serving on the Tracy City Council from 1990 to 1992, Pombo won a congressional seat by pledging to revise the legislation.

Opponents “were able to use an endangered species that no one had ever seen or heard of in order to stop that project from going forward,” said Pombo, co-author of the 1996 book, “This Land is Our Land: How to End the War on Private Property.”

Unfortunately, this story is much different than the story Pombo told a congressional committee in 1994.  According to the Los Angeles Times:

In 1994 he told a Senate subcommittee that he ran for Congress after the ranch was declared critical habitat for the endangered San Joaquin kit fox, stripping his land of its value and forcing his family to run the ranch “with an unwanted, unneeded, un-silent partner — the federal government.”

But, as the Times notes, Pombo’s 1994 story wasn’t actually true.

The tale turns out to have been embroidered. Pombo’s ranch is a corridor for the kit fox, the smallest fox in North America. But it is not critical habitat, which the government has never designated anywhere for the tiny fox. Pombo paid $5,137 into a regional habitat conservation plan to compensate for houses he and relatives were building on the ranch. But that was years after his congressional testimony.

Today, Pombo concedes his characterization was “mistaken” and says having kit fox habitat on his land “didn’t prevent me from doing anything.”

I’m sure that the AP did all sorts of fact checking before it decided to promote one of Dick Pombo’s more egregious lies.

Bay Area

State Assembly races rundown

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(And now State Assembly from Nathaniel. – promoted by jsw)

Following up on my State Senate races analysis earlier today, here it is for the Assembly. Since all 80 Assembly seats are up every election, it would be a little nutty to go through every one, so I’ll just do open seats and vulnerable incumbents.

Read below the fold…

AD-04 (Gold Country): Tim Leslie (R) is term-limited; the heavy favorite is Placer County Supervisor Ted Gaines.

AD-06 (Marin/Sonoma): Joe Nation (D) is term-limited and running for CD-06 against Lynn Woolsey; the frontrunner is Marin County Supervisor Cynthia Murray, a moderate, while more lefty candidates trail narrowly.

AD-11 (East Bay): Joe Canciamilla (D) is term-limited; is the winner his wife, Laura, or Contra Costa County Supervisor Mark DeSaulnier?

AD-12 (San Francisco): Leland Yee (D) is leaving to run for SD-08; the frontrunner is definitely San Francisco Supervisor Fiona Ma.

AD-16 (Oakland): Wilma Chan (D) is term-limited; the major candidates are Sandre Swanson, Ronnie Gail Caplane, and John Russo. The primary is competitive, with Russo leading in money, Caplane leading in connections, and Swanson leading in political clout backing him.

AD-17 (Northern San Joaquin Valley): Barbara Matthews (D) is term-limited; the Democratic candidate is Cathleen Galgiani, while Republicans are running Gerry Machado. The district leans Democratic, but is no lock for Galgiani.

AD-18 (Alameda County): Johan Klehs (D) is term-limited and running for SD-10; Bill McCammon and Mary Hayashi are competing for the nomination, with Hayashi a slight favorite.

AD-24 (Santa Clara County): Rebecca Cohn (D) is term-limited; Santa Clara County Supervisor Jim Beall is the favorite.

AD-25 (San Joaquin Valley): Dave Cogdill (R) is term-limited and running for SD-14; Tom Berryhill is his heir.

AD-28 (Central Coast): Simon Salinas (D) is term-limited; Salinas Mayor Anna Caballero should be the favorite to succeed him.

AD-32 (Bakersfield and the Desert): Kevin McCarthy (R) is headed for Congress (CD-22), so there is a rush on the GOP side to succeed him. No clear favorite yet.

AD-38 (North L.A. County & Ventura County): Keith Richman (R) is term-limited and running for Treasurer; the successor is Santa Clarita City Councilman Cameron Smyth.

AD-39 (San Fernando Valley): Cindy Montanez is leaving to run for SD-20, and meanwhile that term-limited Senator, Richard Alarcon, is running here.

AD-41 (Ventura and L.A. Coast): Fran Pavley (D) is term-limited; Calabasas Mayor Barry Groveman and Santa Monica School Board Member Julia Brownley are the major candidates.

AD-42 (West L.A.): Paul Koretz (D) is term-limited; his successor will either be businessman Mike Feuer or former West Hollywood Mayor Abbe Land.

AD-43 (Burbank/Glendale/Pasadena): Dario Frommer (D) is term-limited; the Democratic primary is close between Burbank School Board Member Paul Krekorian and Glendale City Councilman Frank Quintero.

AD-44 (San Gabriel Valley): Carol Liu (D) is term-limited; the primary is competitive but favors La Canada Mayor Anthony Portantino.

AD-45 (Los Angeles): Jackie Goldberg (D) is term-limited; the primary is chaotic but favors Kevin De Leon, who is supported by Speaker Nunez.

AD-48 (Los Angeles): Mark Ridley-Thomas (D) is leaving to run for SD-26; will his successor be Anthony Willoughby or bishop Edward Turner?

AD-49 (San Gabriel Valley): Judy Chu (D) is term-limited and running for the Board of Equalization; her husband, Monterey Park City Councilman Mike Eng, should be favored.

AD-51 (Gardena/Inglewood/Hawthorne): Jerome Horton (D) is term-limited and running for the Board of Equalization; Gardena City Councilman Stephen Bradford could be the favorite.

AD-55 (Long Beach/Carson): Jenny Oropeza (D) is term-limited and running for SD-28; either Community College Trustee Warren Furutani or Long Beach City Councilwoman Laura Richardson will win.

AD-56 (Norwalk/Whittier/Buena Park): Rudy Bermudez (D) is leaving to run for SD-30; the favorite could be teacher Tony Mendoza.

AD-57 (Pomona Valley): Ed Chavez (D) is term-limited; his wife, Renee, could be next.

AD-58 (La Puente/Downey/Montebello): Ron Calderon (D) is leaving to run for SD-30; his brother (?), Charles, seems the frontrunner.

AD-59 (Inland Empire): Dennis Mountjoy (blaucgh) is finally term-limited; Anthony Adams looks like the leader of the Republican pack.

AD-61 (Inland Empire): Gloria Negrete McLeod (D) is term-limited and running for SD-32; that Senator, Nell Soto, is running here as well.

AD-62 (Inland Empire): Joe Baca Jr. (D) is leaving after one term to run for SD-32; his brother Jeremy should win here.

AD-65 (San Jacinto Valley): Russ Bogh (R) is term-limited; Jim Ayres looks like his successor.

AD-66 (Riverside & San Diego Counties): Ray Haynes (R) is leaving to run for the Board of Equalization; Kevin Jeffries has the money and the conservative backing. He should win.

AD-67 (Orange County): Tom Harman (R) is term-limited and running in the special election for SD-35; either his wife Dianne or Orange County Supervisor Jim Silva will win.

AD-69 (Orange County): Tom Umberg (D) is term-limited and running for SD-34; Santa Ana City Councilman Jose Solorio and Claudia Alvarez are both running.

AD-72 (Orange County): Lynn Daucher (R) is term-limited and running for SD-34; Yorba Linda City Councilman Michael Duvall and Brea City Councilman Marty Simonoff are facing off for the Republican nomination.

AD-74 (Northern San Diego County): Mark Wyland (R) is term-limited and running for SD-38; either Martin Garrick or Marie Waldron may succeed him.

AD-77 (San Diego County): Jay La Suer (R) is term-limited; is it Nancy Lee Beacham or Joel Anderson?

AD-79 (San Diego County): Juan Vargas (D) is term-limited and running for CD-51 against Bob Filner; former Chula Vista City Councilwoman Mary Salas looks like the successor.

So all of these open seats are fairly safe for the incumbent party. And incumbents that could be vulnerable like Nicole Parra (D) in AD-30, Guy Houston (R) in AD-15, or Bonnie Garcia (R) in AD-80 seem to be getting free passes. The only competitive Assembly race I see so far is Shirley Horton (R) seeking reelection in AD-78; she barely won reelection in 2004 with Kerry winning AD-78, and is facing George Gastil this year. So is Gastil a good candidate? Don’t know. I just know that California is most definitely gerrymandered in favor of incumbents. No way state legislators are THIS popular; so popular they can’t be unseated without term limits.

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CA-50 Eric Roach Caught Cheating – AGAIN

The Swing State Project picks up on an illegal campaign mailer in the CA-50 special election race. Seems that millionaire Eric Roach has put together a two page letter, ostensible written by his wife, touting his candidacy. Problem is the Roach campaign fails to note anywhere on the document that they are responsible for it, a clear violation of the law.

In other words, if you send out a mailer, you’ve got to put one of those little disclaimers on it, saying who authorized and paid for the mailer. The Roach campaign sent out a two-page letter – purporting to be from his wife, Meg – but didn’t include any disclaimers at all. Not on page one, not on page two, not on the front of the envelope, not on the back of the envelope.

The letter, which looks more like a 14 year olds diary entry, suggest among other rather foolish things that the Roach campaign is “more of a ‘grassroots’ effort.” How spending a million dollars out of your own pocket can be classified as “grassroots” seems to be beyond Meg Roach’s grasp.

This isn’t the first time that the Roach campaign has attempted to ignore the requirements of campaign law. Back in February, Roach’s self-funding triggered the “millionaires’ amendment” that opened the door for his opponents to increase their fund raising limits. Rumor has it that Roach did not intend to inform the Federal Election Commission that his campaign had exceeded the self-funding limits and that the Roach crew only made its disclosure after a reporter threatened to expose Roach in print.

This is a candidate whose wife suggests has “been thoroughly dismayed at the way Congress has been acting lately.” Yet, he seems to have already caught on to some of the finer points of rule breaking that so characterize the Republican congress of corruption.

Hat tip to the tireless crew at Calitic’s .

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News Roundup 3/25/06

Today’s news roundup on the flip. Teasers: Piggy banks at the trough, the profitability of being a Rovian acolyte, employment up, housing down, gas prices up, and minor skirmishes in the culture war.

  • Let’s lead with this excellent SacBee graphic explaining the current gubernatorial race for cash.

  • Steve Schmidt, leader of the Schwarzenegger Bush-style, Rove-educated campaign team, is raking it in. Who says crime doesn’t pay? (On a side note, the Republican Flash Report thinks both the paycheck and Steve Schmidt are just ducky.)

  • In economic news, jobs are up across the state, but most of our growth has been in home construction and related industries. Home sales are slowing, as everyone knew they eventually would, so clearly that’s not a sustainable model. Silicon Valley is doing fairly well, but the lack of investment in affordable housing, transportation and education is a looming problem.

  • Just in time for the summer driving season, gas prices are edging up.

  • On the culture war front, a whole bunch of fundamentalist teens have descended on San Francisco for some kind of rally against worldliness. I hope they’re staying in hotels — their money spends just fine, I reckon. The targets of complaint called out in the article include MySpace and the sexualization of pop culture. I keep waiting for these folks to realize that Rupert Murdoch, their nominal ally, owns the sex-saturated Fox Channel and now MySpace. Update: Apparently, Fox News is a bit sex-saturated as well. I can’t wait for the protests from the fundamentalists.

  • On the serious side, there’s been a small victory for the equal treatment of gay Americans. Though I’m no fan of Proposition 13, it allows a surviving spouse to inherit property without triggering a reassessment. That benefit has been extended to registered domestic partners.