CA-50: Who is Busby running against? Maybe both?!

Who knows?  Bilbray says he’s the “presumptive” candidate. 

Neither of the two leading candidates claimed outright victory after Tuesday’s special election to finish the final eight months of Cunningham’s term. They were separated by less than 900 votes.

With 100 percent of the precincts counted, lobbyist and former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray had 19,366 votes or 15 percent of the vote in California’s 50th District. Eric Roach, a venture capitalist who poured at least $1.8 million of his own money into the race, had 18,486 votes or 14 percent.

You also have to love that Roach’s money could only buy one vote for each $10.  $10/vote.  Wow, those are some expensive votes.  So, while neither Republican can decide who is the winner, they can spend lots of money to decide nothing.

But Roach hasn’t ruled anything out.  Anything.

“We are waiting for those final 10,000 votes to be counted,” said Roach spokesman Stan Devereux. “Then we’ll see if a recount is necessary.”

Devereux didn’t rule out the possibility that Roach might attempt a write-in campaign in the June runoff if he finishes behind Bilbray.

Well, I must admit that I thought Busby vs. Bilbray was my dream scenario for the runoff (if there had to be one.)  But I take that back.  My dream scenario is now Roach running a well-financed write-in campaign and handing the election to Busby.  Hey Eric, you want to spend another $10/vote?

Arnold announces opposition to Prop 82 (well, kind of)

Well, not opposition, but not endorsing, and definitely not “fantastic” (thanks Julia).

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s campaign said Wednesday he would not endorse a universal preschool initiative that filmmaker Rob Reiner has championed, citing the governor’s long-standing opposition to tax increases.

“Put simply, the governor does not support tax increases and is opposed to Proposition 82 because it will raise taxes,” Katie Levinson, communications director for the Schwarzenegger reelection campaign, said in a statement.(LA Times 4/13/06)

I can understand Schwarzenegger’s hesitancy over the tax increase; he is a Norquist-Republican after all (now, there’s a nice meme).  But, from what I understood, he had agreed to stay out of this race entirely if he wasn’t going to endorse it (more as a personal favor to Rob Reiner than anything else).  Well, I still haven’t heard anything directly from the Governor’s mouth, but I’m not expecting to.  He tends not to say much of consequence when can. 

If you want to endorse it, do that.  If you don’t, then just say that you oppose it.  Arnold needs to learn that Sacramento is not Hollywood.  You can’t just smile and say nothing.  He needs to be leader.  Or more accurately, we need a NEW governor who is going to be a leader. 

California Blog Roundup, 4/13/06

OK, here’s the California Blog Roundup for today. Teasers: 5 House Districts to watch, a smidge more on CA-50, more fun with Brian Bilbray, wobbly Governor (and not the good kind of Wobbly), some endorsements from a couple groups, news of the funny and weird.

CA-50: Roach: recount option open, NCTimes: GOP has unity problems

This article in the North County Times is already bearish on GOP chances of uniting behind Bilbray. Roach sends out a press release saying the recount option is very much on the table, they are just waiting to see what happens with the 10,000 absentee and provisional ballots that are not yet counted.

supporters called on the field to “unite” behind Bilbray’s candidacy.

But a day later, it appeared that unity could be slow in coming.

Eric Roach, Bilbray’s nearest Republican rival, said Wednesday through campaign managers that he might ask for a recount of votes cast in the sprawling 50th District —- a move that would delay Republican solidarity in the weeks of campaigning left before June 6.

Only 55 days until the runoff! They don’t have time for weeks of finishing counting the provisionals, and weeks of recounts. (cue small violin) The NCTimes notes that not only can Roach contest the primary in June, but can even run as a write-in in the runoff question. Ouch!

Brian Bilbray: Bought Outright or Just Rented?

So, it looks Francine Busby will be facing Brian Bilbray in the runoff for CA-50 on June 6.  His bio is interesting:  he was a house member from 1994 until 2000; he’s been a lobbyist since.  TPM Muckraker tells us about one of his clients, both while he was a member of the house and after:

In the mid-1990s, an unusual project called Bajagua landed on desks around Washington. Bajagua — a plan cooked up by two Southern California developers — was to pump water from Mexico to San Diego; process the water once; pump it back to Mexico; and process it a second time, then pipe it into Mexican households. …

Both the EPA and the State Department rejected the idea. But Bilbray believed! He also got campaign donations from the Bajagua project’s backers.

…Bilbray got to work: with another lawmaker, he crafted a bill in 1999 that forced the State Department to renegotiate with Mexico to allow for the project. It also handed the Bajagua brains the keys to a sole-source contract to build the Mexican plant. The bill passed in 2000.

In 2000, Bilbray lost his Congressional seat. For $35,000, the Bajagua guys snapped him up as their lobbyist. He pressed State to get the OK’s from Mexico and to issue his backers a contract to start building their plant.

Bilbray even testified before Congress on behalf of the Bajagua project. He didn’t bother to mention he was being retained by the project’s creators to sell the thing in Washington, however.

Wow.  Taking money both as a legislator and as a lobbyist to push legislation benefitting just one company that wants to build something nobody else wants.  I’m impressed.

The Republican Party should be proud of this candidate — he’s clearly a thought leader.

CA-50 Special Election Post-Mortem Blog Roundup

OK, here’s the CA-50 Special Election Postmortem Roundup.

If you read just one of these, read this one, by Frank Russo of the California Progress Report.  He hits most of the topics that everyone else does, and couple that others don’t, like the high number of uncounted provisional ballots. (Thanks, HAVA and Secretary McPherson!)

I would follow that up with Markos’s concerns about turnout, which is the only issue that Frank doesn’t hit.  CQ Politics has a good just-the-facts (well, mostly just the facts) summary.

See also Bowers @ MyDD (optimistic) D-Day (cautiously optimistic), Down with Tyranny (more optimistic), Ezra Klein (neutral), and Words Have Power (tired, I think).

For what it’s worth, I tend to agree with Frank Russo + Kos.  It’s about motivating the voters on your side, getting them to the polls, and making sure their votes get counted.  The Republicans are fracturing and appear demoralized, not just in CA-50, but nationwide.  The Democrats need to prove they can stand up and campaign to take advantage of that.