It’s a sad day over at FlashReport.  Eric Roach has announced that he will not be running against Brian Bilbray in the June Primary for the CA-50 congressional seat.

This morning I spoke with Eric Roach, the top-vote getting conservative in last month’s special election in the 50th Congressional District.  So let me be the first to share some unfortunate news (unless you are a big-spending Republican).

It is with great sadness that I share with you the news that after much consideration, Eric Roach has decided not to actively campaign for Congress in the regular GOP primary in the 50th Congressional District.  Eric would have been an outstanding candidate who I personally think could have cleaned liberal/moderate GOPer Brian Bilbray’s clock in that GOP only primary and gone on to win election to the full two-year term in November.(FlashReport 5/8/06)

Aww, poor Jon is upset.  Sorry, I have to keep the Schadenfreude out of this.  Fleischman was, shall we say, the loudest and proudest of the Run,Eric, Run crowd.  He believed that Bilbray was some sort of a moderate/liberal. (Uh…yeah, compared to Roach’s channeling of James Dobson and Grover Norquist). 

But, he does make a compelling argument for Busby defeating Bilbray in the special runoff in June. His argument: turnout.  If Roach doesn’t run, then conservatives stay home.  (“Without Roach on the ballot, Bilbray has a big challenge ahead of him in turning out conservative voters.”)  His argument comes from national numbers that conservatives are disapproving of Bush and other federal Republicans.  Uhh…duh!  People are mad at Bush because his administration is incompetent, not because they aren’t throwing them the bone.  I think the common voter on the street, even the conservative ones, value competence over ideology.

And Francine Busby fits the bill of competence to a tee.  She did a wonderful job as a school board member.  She will be an excellent Congressman.  And in another endorsement of Busby, Jon Says:

If I lived in this Congressional District, I would go to the polls and vote for Bilbray over Busby.  She is awful.  But that said, given that I have traveled to every part of California, it seems, to help candidates in important special elections, but I am so frustrated at what moderate GOPers have done to hijack our majority and imperil its very existence, that I am not to motivate to get myself to San Diego anytime soon.

Well, anytime Jon Fleischman calls you awful,  you know you’ve done something right.

This looks like great news, so why am I skeptical? Over at Flash Report, the drumbeat for right wing Republican darling, Eric Roach, to run against Republican lobbyist Brian Bilbray has become frantic. Roach, for his part, remains silent. In fact, Roach has missed two deadlines established by his own spokesman for an announcement of his intentions. Last week, we were told Roach would have an announcement by week’s end. This week, the same line. No announcement.

Now to this latest poll. The numbers for Busby are outstanding. In a poll of 450 potential voters, skewed heavily with Republicans, Busby outperforms Bilbray 43% to 37%. This seems pretty unusual, so let’s look at the poll a little more closely.

First, the poll was commissioned by conservative Republican and Eric Roach supporter, Bill Hauf. Hauf ostensible wanted to find out both Bilbray’s position in his race against Busby, but also the mood of the conservative electorate. The poll appears to have been designed to insure that Bilbray’s liberal tendencies would be exposed.

Second, the poll used a classic “push poll” methodology. The money question of voter preference is preceded by questions designed to predispose the respondent to make a specific choice. For example, prior to asking if a voter prefers Busby or Bilbray, there might be a couple of questions about Bilbray the lobbyist. Or, depending on the poll, a question about Bilbray eating the flesh of young children.

Third, the poll was designed to scare Republicans. Bilbray (the eater of living children) performed far worse against Busby than Roach, the white knight of the Republican right.

However, this poll is good news for Busby. The margin of error is too great to be just the product of the “push poll” bias. And, it shows that Republican support of Bilbray is incredibly weak.

The continuing drumbeat of bad news regarding the Bush Administration and the support of Republican leaders like Cheney and Hastert are huge negative for Bilbray. In fact, the mainstream party support for Bilbray is playing right into both Busby and Roach’s hands.

The result here is great for Busby, a major negative for Bilbray and a big inducement to Roach to take on Bilbray (for his own good).

50th District Republican Eric Roach has returned from his visit with the lords of the right in Washington and now California conservatives eagerly await his decision. Will he run against Brian Bilbray in the 50th District Republican primary? Certainly, it’s not just conservatives who are hanging on Roach’s impending announcement. Roach’s entry into the primary will force Brian Bilbray to fight a two front war – one against Democrat Francine Busby in the run-off election to fill out the remainder of convicted Republican felon Randy “Duke” Cunningham and the other to fend off Roach in the Republican primary. Both battles to be fought simultaneously and decided on June 6.

Conservative blogger, Jon Fleischman was part of Roach’s entourage on his trip to DC. Roach, Fleischman and the geography challenged Howard Kaloogian visited the various gurus of the right, with Fleischman breathlessly reporting on each new encounter with the great oracles of conservatism – Grover Norquist, Paul Weyrich, and a host of other right wing members of the Republican congress of corruption.  No mention of any visits to Brent Wilkes’ “hospitality” suite.

Why does Roach need Grove Norquist’s permission to run?  Answer after the jump.

More to the point, this trip was designed to grease the skids for what in the end will be a Republican vs Republican cage match. If Roach’s primary candidacy results in a Busby victory in June, it will be considered as collateral damage by the conservatives. Their target is a conservative victory in November. If Roach beats Bilbray in the primary, then whether Bilbray wins or loses the run-off with Busby, his only alternative in November is to run a write-in campaign, which almost guarantees the seat to Busby. At that point, Bilbray will be under incredible pressure from the Republican Party to go back to his home in Virginia and resume his career as a lobbyist.

This is a high stakes game for Roach and the conservatives. If Roach wins the primary and then defeats Busby in November, it is validation for the movement conservatives. If Roach loses to Bilbray in the primary or if a three way race in November results in a Busby victory, the movement conservatives will be repudiated in a district they consider as safe as any in the country, a strong signal that the far right wing driven vision of the conservative movement may well be on the decline.

Upon their return, Fleischman strongly urged Roach to run.

He’s right, the conservative cause needs Eric Roach to run.  What the movement conservatives can’t afford is for Roach to fail.

Eric Roach claims that he is not a “professional politician” and this might be the most honest claim he has made lately. However, Roach has hired a team of slick, professional political handlers to run his campaign for convicted felon Randy “Duke” Cunningham’s seat in the 50th District.

Yesterday, we posted about an illegal Roach campaign mailer that was going the rounds in the North County. The document, purported to have been written by Roach’s wife, bears no campaign disclaimer nor does it indicate who paid for the document and postage. Violations of campaign law that will no doubt get millionaire Roach’s campaign a stiff fine sometime in 2010 or so.

It should be no surprise that Roach’s campaign is sending out deceptive mailers to prospective Republican voters. After all that seems to be the specialty of the team of right wing pros he has hired to run his campaign.

For example, Roach Coach John Feliz, who is on loan from the perpetual campaign of righty John McClintock, helped our pal John Doolittle (CA-4) get elected with a mailer that gained Doolittle just enough of an edge (3%) to knock out a Republican rival, who was running as an independent. In fact, Feliz’s efforts earned him a fine from the state Fair Political Practices Commission.

Shortly before the election, Doolittle campaign consultant John Feliz coordinated the production of a mass mailer sent on behalf of Doolittle’s Democratic opponent, Jack Hornsby. The consulting services of Feliz and a Doolittle fundraiser, Jim Grubbs, along with 60,000 mailing labels, were contributed by the Friends of John Doolittle Committee to the Friends of Jack Hornsby Committee. The mailer was sent to Democratic households as a tactic to bring Democratic candidate Hornsby into the three-way race with Doolittle and former state Senator Ray Johnson, thus pulling votes away from Johnson to Hornsby for the benefit of Doolittle.

And, then there is Roach’s internet coach, Jeff Evans. Evans has a long history working for rightwing candidates. In fact, Evans is closely associated with the California Republican Assembly, which is flooding the North County with hit piece mailers aimed at fellow Republican Brian Bilbray. Evans’ most recent brush with unsavory campaign practices surround mailers he prepared for a Los Vegas city council candidate, Janet Moncrief. The mailers were sent out under false identities by Evans’ consulting operation.

 
Copies of invoices obtained by the Review-Journal show Evans billed Moncrief twice at her
Las Vegas address.

The first invoice, dated April 1, states it was for printing the “McDonald Union piece,” which portrayed the councilman as anti-union. The flier was mailed to union households in Ward 1.

The second invoice, dated May 14, indicates it was for a printing a flier titled “The Moncrief Conspiracy.”

Evans, who said he was paid by check, doesn’t recall who contacted him about printing the fliers. He said he doesn’t recall who signed the checks. But his invoices are stamped “Paid.”

Eric Roach talks about restoring integrity to congress, but he can’t even run a campaign with any integrity.