Prop 82 held a huge lead in the February Field Poll. In that poll, 82 was up by a 21-point margin (55-34). In last week’s poll, 82 had only a 13-point lead (52-39). Yes, that is still a sizable lead, but losing that much support that quickly can’t be a positive for its supporters. But, I think there is another worrisome number hidden in the bottom of the big table of statistics in the poll. If you scroll down to the bottom of that table there is a breakdown by whether the respondent had heard of 82 before the survey. Respondents that hadn’t heard of 82 (44 % of respondents) strongly supported it (55-33-12). However, respondents that had heard of it gave a support/opposition ratio that was within the margin (49 46 5).
The reason that this is worrisome for the future of 82 is that there will be lots of “education” in the next 6 weeks. 82 sounds good on a ballot, but it can be spun negatively. Its costs are uncertain. Its public face (Reiner) is enduring some challenging times and can be villified by the right. In other words, what I’m saying is that Prop 82 is in a classic position of vulnerability to a media campaign.
UPDATE: PPIC’s statewide education survey is out. They have a 11 point lead for 82 as well, but at only 50% support, passage is still in doubt.
Proposition 82 – which would fund voluntary preschool education for all four-year-olds in California through a
tax on wealthy state residents – is currently supported by 51 percent of likely voters, with 40 percent opposed. Democrats (64%) are more likely than independents (50%) and Republicans (38%), and Latinos (63%) are more likely than whites (47%), to back the measure. Is access to preschool perceived as a problem in the state today?
Seven in 10 likely voters express at least some concern that children in lower-income areas may not be able to attend preschool.
More on the flip…
So, yes, it appears that 82 has lost its momentum. Of course there are the numerous politicians who have removed their support. Schwarzenegger couldn’t endorse it due to the radical right wing of his party. But the SF and LA Chambers of Commerce are taking a little bit of a risk supporting 82, especially as the statewide Chamber is basically now the lead opponent. By the by, is Rob Reiner running for governor? No? Really, Becuase you would sware that he is based upon the website name for the opposition to Prop 82: www.stopreiner.org. I mean WOW! That’s some serious pandering to the right. They always need somebody to hate…this time it’s Reiner. It’s actually quite unfortunate. Prop 82 should be judged on its merits…not some BS about Reiner.
But at least part of the progressive shift away from 82 is due to the fact that elected officials are growing tired of legislation bypassing the traditional channels. Would Perata support a preschool program if it was brought in the legislature? Probably? Would it pass? Hell no. Unless the money can be found without taxing, the supermajority rules allow the Reps to block progressive legislation like that. While Burton isn’t in the legislature anymore, that must be part of his logic as well. With the current wave of initiatives, the legislators began quite supportive. They supported the mental health bill that passed a few years ago, they supported the stem cell initiative (for the most part), but now they are realizing that if this tide doesn’t turn, their budget will be eaten alive by the initiatives. Of course in this case, preschool won’t be taken out of the general fund, but rather this new tax on the wealthiest Californians. But, at least in the case of Angelides, this is a tax they already plan on using for other purposes.
Preschool is a worthy cause. And 82, while somewhat flawed, is the best chance of that happening anytime in the near future. Until we reform our governance system to remove these unreasonable obstacles to majority will, we are left with the second best choice. In this case, that is 82.