CA-11: Jerry McNerney, California’s Jon Tester

( – promoted by SFBrianCL)

Jerry McNerneyIn CA-11, Jerry McNerney took the Democratic nomination.  He will face “Paid-for” Pombo in the general election.  We’ve been following the CA-11 race here at Calitics for a long time, more so recently due to the recent comments of Filson.  I posted a diary both at Calitics and at dKos about the bullshit surrounding the triangulation theories playing out in this race.  I’d like to go through this a little and make the proposition that Jerry McNerney is our Tester, a progressive leader that is simultaneously electable and responsive to his Democratic base.  For more on Tester, check out dKos.

CA-11 District Map So, a brief background on the race would probably be helpful here.  Jerry McNerney ran a campaign that got a late start in 2004.  He struggled to build a campaign structure for that race, going so far as to mortgage his house in order to run a decent campaign.  In the end, he garnered about 39% of the vote, a respectable figure against a well-funded incumbent.  Of course, at that point Richard Pombo was merely an unremarkable Congressman with a penchant for hyperbole, or outright lying, depending on how you see fit to describe it.  The 11th district isn’t your typical Bay Area district, it has its soul in San Joaquin county.  It previously had more Democrats, but the Democratic heart of Stockton was shifted from what is now the 11th to what is now the 18th.  This was due to the Gary Condit scandal.  Legislative Democrats wanted Condit to retire so that the Democrats could retain his seat in the 18th District, now held by Blue Dog Valleycrat Dennis Cardoza.  Thus, the 11th now has a substantial Republican registration advantage.

There’s lots more on the flip…

Now, Jerry McNerney didn’t give up after 2004.  He knew that Richard Pombo was not the right man to be representing the 11th.  And then came the candidacy of Pete McCloskey, a “moderate” Republican.  (Sidenote: It’s probably just as well McCloskey didn’t win.  The man has had some problems with attacking the Jewish community and a touch of Holocaust denial, specifically saying, “I listened to speeches about the courage of men who have spoken out against the commonly accepted concept of what occurred during the Second World War in the so-called Holocaust.” Yikes!  That’s more than a bit scary.) Whatever McCloskey did or did not say, one thing is clear: he riled up the moderate Republicans who had grown weary of Pombo.  The GOP Ex-Congressman who challenged Pombo in this year’s primary, accused Pombo of a litany of wrongs, including:

Why Retire Pombo?
•  Pombo has been named by non-partisan watchdog groups as:

  •  “One of the 13 most corrupt members of Congress”-COMMITTEE FOR RESPONSIBILITY AND ETHICS IN WASHINGTON (CREW)

  •  “One of the first six inductees to the Congressional Hall of Shame” – PUBLIC CITIZEN

•  Richard Pombo is among the top recipients of money from admitted felon and former lobbyist Jack Abramoff and his associates.  (Source: Time)
•  Pombo owes his chairmanship of the House Resources Committee to indicted former majority leader Tom DeLay.  Pombo, who votes in lockstep with DeLay 92% of the time, actively tried to change House Ethics Rules to protect DeLay (House Resolution 5) and donated thousands of dollars to the DeLay legal defense fund.
•  Pombo used his official powers to protect a large donor, Charles Hurwitz, thwarting a Federal investigation in what federal regulators called, “a seamy abuse of the legislative process.” (Source: LA Times 1/8/06) (PeteMcCloskey.com)

These allegations and plenty more were made by a Republican.  It lends credibility that may not have existed if it were only coming from the Democratic candidates.  The Wall Street Journal picked up on the story too:

In one of the year’s most improbable races, the 78-year-old former congressman has jumped back into politics in a long-shot bid to oust House Resources Committee Chairman Richard Pombo here in Tuesday’s Republican primary. Few give Mr. McCloskey much chance of success as he tours the San Joaquin Valley in his red, white and blue van….”The Republican leadership in the House has abandoned ethics, they’ve abandoned the concept of balanced budgets, they’ve abandoned the concept of limited government,” Mr. McCloskey tells his conservative host, Bill Mick. House leaders are “dead wrong” in resisting the recent Justice Department criminal search of one lawmaker’s office, and Congress should begin to pull troops out of Iraq as proposed by his fellow Marine, Rep. John Murtha (D., Pa.).
***
Environmentalists, angered by Mr. Pombo’s direction of the Resources Committee, are pouring money into efforts to help the McCloskey campaign, and Democrats hope the challenge will open the door for them against Mr. Pombo in the November election. (WSJ 6/1/06)

And open the door it has.  In a recent Defenders of Wildlife poll, both Democrats were leading Congressman Pombo.  And even Rep. McCloskey has said that he would prefer the Democrat over Pombo.  So, this brings us all back to who do we want to take on Congressman Pombo.  Jerry McNerney worked hard for a long time to restore dignity to the 11th District.  However, once the DCCC discovered that Pombo was vulnerable they brought their own man in:

Democrats are having their own identity crisis in the 11th District. Jerry McNerney, who lost to Mr. Pombo in 2004, still enjoys the support of liberal activists.
But House Democrats want a more moderate face: Steve Filson, a Navy veteran and United Airlines pilot who situated his campaign headquarters in the San Joaquin Valley as a direct challenge to Mr. Pombo’s base.
A Republican-turned-Democrat, Mr. Filson says his politics were changed by United’s labor struggles, and warns that just running against Mr. Pombo isn’t enough. “We have to concentrate on what I offer, too — in addition to what Pombo’s done,” he says. (WSJ 6/1/06)

And Filson continued to run away from progressives where McNerney did not.  McNerney proudly states progressive friendly positions on health care, reproductive freedom, environmental issues (he’s got a background in wind energy) and supports Rep. Murtha’s position on Iraq.  Filson did not have much different stances on the issues, with the exception of some lukewarm support for a more Clinton-esque Iraq strategy.  However, he attempted to go fuzzy moderate, and decided the best way to do that was to bash the left and the grass and netroots.

“We need members of congress… who do not get endorsements from places in Marin County and Sonoma, from extreme and progressive sections of the party.”(Audio file)

Now, that just won’t do, especially when you’re in a tight primary campaign.  That’s essentially when the wheels fell off of Filson’s campaign, and Jerry started gaining strength.  And no amount of Ellen Tauscher’s meddling could make Filson the shoo-in that he thought he was supposed to be.  Like Tester, the party faithful came out to support a proud, principled man who wasn’t afraid of his own beliefs.  That will resonate in the California 11th against Pombo like it will in the Montana Senate Race against Burns.

The full slate

(Check out the flip for a review of the races for the open seats in the Legislature. – promoted by SFBrianCL)

We still have a few votes left to be counted in certain areas of the state, but the picture is clear now.
Let’s start with the state officers (as covered on the front page):
Governor – Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-incumbent) vs. Phil Angelides (D)
Lt. Governor  – John Garamendi (D) vs. Tom McClintock (R)
Secretary of State  – Bruce McPherson (R-incumbent) vs. Debra Bowen (D)
Controller  – John Chiang (D) vs. Tony Strickland (R)
Treasurer  – Bill Lockyer (D) vs. Claude Parrish (R)
Attorney General – Jerry Brown (D) vs. Chuck Poochigian (R)
Insurance Commissioner – Cruz Bustamante (D) vs. Steve Poizner (R)
Superintendent of Schools Jack O’Connell was reelected in the nonpartisan race.
The interesting state legislative results below the fold:

STATE SENATE

Biggest Upset: Lou Correa over Tom Umberg. Were Democrats that afraid of a sex scandal? Wow. Also Gloria Negrete McLeod crushed the Baca dynasty with 62%. And Ellen Corbett and Johan Klehs didn’t split the liberal vote, Dutra actually came in THIRD.

It looks like the Senate won’t be losing as many women as I thought. Even if Lynn Daucher (R) doesn’t win against Correa, the Senate will only lose two women, and if she does win, it will have lost just one. This is due to upsets by Jenny Oropeza, Negrete McLeod, and Corbett.

Here are the results in open-seat races (since all but one of these districts will be solid for the incumbent party, I only included both parties’ candidates in District 34):

District 2 – Pat Wiggins (D)

District 6 – Darrell Steinberg (D)

District 8 – Leland Yee (D)

District 10 – Ellen Corbett (D)

District 14 – Dave Cogdill (R)

District 20 – Alex Padilla (D)

District 26 – Mark Ridley-Thomas (D)

District 28 – Jenny Oropeza (D)

District 30 – Ron Calderon (D)…recount?

District 32 – Gloria Negrete McLeod (D)

District 34 – Lou Correa (D) vs. Lynn Daucher (R)

District 38 – Mark Wyland (R)

STATE ASSEMBLY

Only including the primaries that were tossups or had a result different than I predicted. Note that the Black Caucus did much better than expected, winning Oakland’s AD-16, Long Beach’s AD-55, and in possibly the biggest upset in the state last night, AD-62 against Jeremy Baca. The Fabulous Baca Boys did badly last night.

District 6 – Jared Huffman (D)

District 16 – Sandre Swanson (D)

District 18 – Mary Hayashi (D)

District 41 – Julia Brownley (D)

District 42 – Mike Feuer (D)

District 43 – Paul Krekorian (D)

District 45 – Kevin De Leon (D)

District 48 – Mike Davis (D)

District 51 – Curren Price (D)

District 55 – Laura Richardson (D)

District 56 – Tony Mendoza (D)

District 57 – Ed Hernandez (D)

District 59 – Anthony Adams (R)

District 62 – Wilmer Carter (D) HUGE UPSET

District 65 – Paul Cook (R)

District 66 – Kevin Jeffries (R)

District 67 – Jim Silva (R)

District 69 – Jose Solorio (D)

District 72 – Mike Duvall (R)

District 74 – Martin Garrick (R)

District 77 – Joel Anderson (R)

District 79 – Mary Salas (D)

No Assembly district is considered at all a possibility to flip, except perhaps District 80 with former Assemblyman Steve Clute (D). So these people will all be in the Assembly next session barring some major surprises.

The Statewide Winners and Also-Rans

Well, the election last night had its ups and downs, but I think overall, it was an exciting night.  The Democratic voters elected a strong slate heading into the general election.  We’ll take them one by one.

Governor

Phil AngelidesPhil Angelides has officially claimed victory over Steve Westly. ( KGO7 has the victory speech video.) The campaign was mired in muck, but Angelides was ultimately able to emerge. I would have appreciated a clean campaign, but now the focus needs to shift to Schwarzenegger.  He’s already started his campaign, so we need to redouble our efforts and ensure that we can proudly claim Governor Angelides in the fall.

Lt. Governor

This was something of a nailbiter early, but John Garamendi’s lead grew throughout the night. I sincerely hope Jackie Speier will be back on the statewide stage.  I think throughout the campaign she looked like something of a rising star.  Garamendi was helped along by his allegations of improper insurance company harassment.  Garamendi will be taking on Tom McClintock, and you can’t help but be pretty confident about our chances there.  The California GOP does pretty poorly when they choose their idealogues, and Garamendi will continue that trend in November.

Secretary of State

This one wasn’t really that close.  I think ultimately it looked more like Debra Bowen ran a more focused campaign.  She primarily stuck to the issues that are important to the SOS position.  Deborah Ortiz’s campaign never really got any momentum.  Bowen has a formidable challenge in the primary in the person of incumbent, but unelected, Bruce McPherson, a so-called moderate.  Bowen has been campaigning on the issues of voting machines, and knows the issues.  This could be an important race, so keep an eye out for it.  It will likely fly below the radar for a while.

Controller

John Chiang and Joe Dunn ran fairly clean campaigns, and for that I am thankful.  Hopefully Dunn will be back, I think he has a lot to offer the state in terms of electability and vision.  Chiang will take on Tony Strickland, a corrupt GOP former assemblyman and leader of the Norquist-inspired California Club for Growth.  Thank you GOP for not nominating the more electable candidate, Abel Maldanado.

Treasurer

Current AG Bill Lockyer ran unopposed.  He will face anti-tax loon and BOE Member Claude Parrish.  Once again, thank you GOP for not nominating the more electable candidate, Keith Richman.

Attorney General

Jerry Brown won solidly, mostly based upon his name recognition.  Rocky Delgadillo ran a good campaign, but he just ran head-on to a popular former governor.  Again, I hope Rocky will be back.  I think he has a lot to offer the state.  Chuck Poochigian will be hard-pressed to seriously challenge Brown.

Insurance Commissioner

Current Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante easily defeated Kraft foods heir John Kraft.  The general will be an interesting race against wealthy businessman Steve Poizner.

CA-50: 18% Gain, Not too shabby

( – promoted by SFBrianCL)

Francine Busby took the disappointing loss.  However, I think we have no reason to hang our heads in shame.  CA-50 was a seat that was gerrymandered to give the GOP an advantage.  They held a 15% registration advantage, and more importantly outspent us 2 to 1.  The fact is that the NRCC was scared, very scared.  But they won’t be able to pour that kind of money into every seat.  There was low turnout caused by voters who were just angry at their government.  That will show up in the Dem column come November.  And while we may be sick of moral victories, this definitely counts as one.  We are on the right track.  From Chris Bowers at mydd.com:

In 2004, Busby lost the CA-50 by 22.0%. Today, it looks like she will lose by around 4.5%. And that was with the NRCC spending $4.5M on the race. If Republicans want to spin losing 18 points after spending $4.5M of committee money as a good thing, go for it. After all, spin is basically why they spent so much money on this race. By blowing their wad in a solidly Republican district, they wanted to change the media narrative on the election in their favor. It will probably work, given how subservient and generally inaccurate the media tends to be when it comes to Republicans and elections. In reality, for a Republican candidate to pull 49.5% of the vote in a district with 44.5% Republican registration is shocking. Given those numbers, Bilbray probably managed all of 20% of the vote among independents.

No matter what the media says, no Democrat should be mistaken about this result. First, this is a huge, seismic shift in our favor that bodes extremely well for November. If we receive an 18% shift nationwide, we will win the House easily. If Republican candidates are pulling only 20% of the independent vote, the Indycrat realignment is still on.(MyDD 6/7/06)

We did well, but we still have room for improvement.  In future elections, a more refined message will bring us the additional seats that we need.  I think we saw through the Montana Senate Primary (see David Sirota’s opinion on that) that we can have a populist message and succeed.  I look forward to the Congressional midterms; you can’t help but be optimistic.

Results Thread

Well, the polls have closed.The Secretary of State’s Results page is here.  We should start getting some absentee results soon after the polls close at 8pm tonight.

Christine Pelosi is liveblogging from Busby HQ.


10:50: Some interesting early results: Leland Yee and Fiona Ma taking their respective races with fairly large leads.  It looks like Lou Papan might have acted as something of a spoiler for Nevin: or Leland yee’s name recognition is higher.  I think same thing with Fiona Ma: people are used to voting for her in the district.

On the big No leads on the two statewide props (81 and 82): I think there’s a lot of that resulting from the typical conservative skew of absentee votes.  Look for that to narrow.  Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think 82 can come back, but it will be closer.  81 actually has a chance of passing too.

It looks like Lt. Gov might be going the distance.  If those Alameda votes take all night like expected, we may not know the winner until tomorrow morning.