The new Field Poll(PDF) has been released, and it shows a much more reasonable lead for Arnold: 10 points. As I have frequently said, the Field Poll is the best poll on California elections. Another interesting number also comes from this poll: 67% of voters think that Arnold will win the election.  It looks like the media has done their job on this one convincing the world that it’s over before it ever started.  Well folks, it ain’t over.

A few encouraging points:

• Arnold is still languishing well below fifty percent, currently at 44 percent, while Angelides has 34%.  Arnold has all the media coverage he could ever want, and he still can’t get fifty percent.  That’s not a good sign for the “greatest superstar governor EVER!”
• This poll was done BEFORE the unions upped their antes against Arnold.  I think the nurses “hounding Arnold” project and the new ABC ads will have a real impact on the race as people begin to remember the special election.  If more people go to the voting booth thinking about November 2005, Phil has a shot.
• Arnold’s lead has been pretty much stagnant since Arnold originally grabbed his seven point lead in the spring.  While everybody has been burying Phil, Arnold has made little actual headway.

I’ll get some more interesting numbers over the flip.

(Also see the Alliance’s post – promoted by SFBrianCL)

UPDATE: Arnold’s Campaign has launched a fact check on these ads.  Here’s my breakdown of their “fact-check”:

1. They argue that Arnold didn’t cut educational funding by saying that funding went up every year.  True enough, but Arnold did steal money to which the schools were entitled under Prop 98.  That is the real fact that they don’t mention.
2. They then argue that that ABC misstated the cost of the special.  They have a reasonable point, but a relatively minor one.  They don’t even dispute the fact that they wasted money, instead they quibble about the amount: “ABC Misstates Cost Of Special Election And Governor Schwarzenegger Plans To Sign Bill Reimbursing Counties $39 Million For Special Election.” And the fact that Arnold is signing a bill to reimburse the counties just moves the money cost from the counties to the state.  Does Arnold plan on personally reimbursing the state for that $39/70 million dollars, or however much it was? Signing a bill having the state pay isn’t a solution for the cost.
3. On “In his own words” they build a straw man to tear down. Damn you Straw man, why did you say that Arnold wouldn’t raise campaign funds. Oh, I assumed that was you, because ABC certainly never said that.  But that’s what Arnold is trying to tear down.  The point that ABC is making in that ad is that Arnold came to town saying that he doesn’t need special interest money, but then he took $100 million.  He’s no reformer, and no better than any other politician.
4. Their response to the fact that Arnold has taken more special interest money than any other California politician in history?  Well, none, they just say, “yeah, well Phil took some money too, kinda, well, just not as much as Arnold.  Phil is jealous of our cash!” Umm, well, Phil has to take money to keep up with the Governator’s massive cash machine.  And Phil also never went to the Railroad Museum to say how he was going to kick special interest butt.  He went there to support Prop 89 to really reform the way the state plays politics.

I present these ads from the Alliance for a Better California.  In my opinion, they are the best Dem-leaning ads of the cycle.  They make their point.  The first ad says that he’s against working people and that we can’t trust him.

I’ve moved the ads over the flip.

“In His Own Words”

“In the Eye

This second ad talks about his raid on education funding and the special.

(x-posted on dailykos)

I have been promising you all for a while that we would be back and active this year.  Here is what you have been waiting for, a new round of ads.  Below is the press release and several formats of the ads including YouTube.

These ads focus on Arnold’s broken promises and question his trustworthiness.

This ad is titled “In His Words”

Quicktime
Windows Media Player

Here is “In the Eye”

Quicktime
Windows Media Player

And part of the press release:

Sacramento – The Alliance for a Better California, the coalition that led the effort to defeat Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Special Election Agenda last year, today released two new television ads focusing on Schwarzenegger’s broken promises and questioning his trustworthiness. The ads’ release coincides with the second year anniversary of the women’s conference where the Governor attacked union members, declaring “I’m always kicking their butts.”

The 30-second commercials featuring teachers, firefighters, nurses, and police officers (available online at www.betterca.com) begin airing today in television markets statewide. The ads cite Schwarzenegger’s broken promises on funding public education and other issues, and question the Governor’s integrity based on his policy reversals, including his promise to be different.

“The Alliance is continuing its efforts to protect working men and women because we don’t know what Arnold Schwarzenegger really believes,” said Gale Kaufman, consultant to the Alliance for a Better California. “There is no evidence of what his core values are. Time and time again we’ve seen him try to reinvent himself in an effort to gain advantage in the polls and to fool voters into thinking he’s not just another politician.”

“These ads remind voters of some very basic things – this Governor will say whatever it takes to get re-elected and that for this Governor talk is cheap. He has no record of holding up his end of the bargain. How can voters trust that next year, should he be re-elected, they would have any idea what his policies will be?” Kaufman said.

Glendale teacher Sandra Fink, who appears in the ad, says, “Governor Schwarzenegger is again promising to make education his top priority because it’s election time and he knows that’s what voters want to hear. But how can we trust him? What happens if the governor who broke his promises to our students and schools – the governor teachers had to sue just to get back the billions he borrowed from education – shows up again next year? We can’t trust this governor. He hasn’t earned it.”

“Integrity is something California’s firefighters don’t take lightly, and we have been profoundly disappointed in Governor Schwarzenegger,” said Brian Rice, a Sacramento firefighter also featured in the ad. “He wasted all of last year on a divisive Special Election on issues that attacked working people. He lost our trust. How can we trust him to not go back to being the Governor who attacked working men and women?”

Why is the Alliance continuing their efforts to protect working men and women? Because we don’t know who Arnold Schwarzenegger really is and we have no way of knowing what he really believes. Time and time again we’ve seen him try to reinvent himself to be able to gain advantage in polling numbers, fool the voters into thinking he’s not just another politician, and spend taxpayers’ money on wasteful big stunts.”

We’re currently on Arnold #4, by my calculations. So, the Alliance asks, which Governor would show up after re-election, after the votes are counted? Why would we want to wait to find out?” Kaufman concluded.

The California Nurses Association has been fighting Arnold Schwarzenegger for as long as anybody else.  And they haven’t quit just because he’s changed his colors (to green!) for the election.

Yesterday, CNA members protested in San Francisco, at a $1,000 per plate fundraiser at the Fairmount Hotel, and in Los Angeles at the State’s Women’s Conference.  Apparently, he blessed the event with ten of his very precious moments.  From BeyondChron:

Approximately 30 activists from the California Nurses Association gathered in front of the Fairmont Hotel yesterday to protest a $25,000-a-plate fundraiser that Arnold Schwarzenegger was holding inside for his re-election campaign. Waving signs in support of Proposition 89 (the Clean Money Initiative that will provide public financing for California campaigns), the protesters vowed to challenge Arnold every step of the way as he shatters all campaign fundraising records. Over the next two weeks, the Nurses will target Schwarzenegger at ten sites throughout California (most in the Los Angeles area) as part of their “Hounding Arnold” tour.
{snip}
The Nurses hope to bring Arnold’s Extreme Make-Over to a grinding halt. “The month of October is the chance for [Schwarzenegger’s Democratic opponent] Phil Angelides to change the narrative, and he can do it,” said Shum Preston of the Nurses’ Association. “While Arnold has made some feints towards the center, it hasn’t altered his fundamental character – which is an insatiable fundraiser. Our goal is to create a tsunami of public opinion against Schwarzenegger.”

Arguably, these “hounding Arnold” could be more successful in driving votes from Arnold to Phil than the Alliance ad campaign or CDP’s ads.  dday’s GovernorPhil post expounds on the importance of these events:

But in my view, the ads are not what brought down Schwarzenegger in the special election last year. It was the tenacity of the various union organizations, who were at every public event, in Arnold’s face at every moment, not allowing him a moment in the limelight without them right there with him. They started in January and they didn’t give up. Arnold cracked under the pressure and said “the special interests don’t like me because I kick their butts,” picking a fight with the regular people who help Californians every day, police, firefighters, nurses, teachers. This was the key to victory last year.

I’ll try to cover as many of these events as possible in the upcoming six weeks.

The new CDP ads should be running.  I thought it was a lot better than the previous “Arnold Schwarzenegger is for George W. Bush, is he for you?” ad.  This one actually brings up some of the problems with Arnold Schwarzenegger, rather than just the fact that he’s a Bushite. It first draws parallels from privatization of Social Security with Arnold’s attacks on state pensions. It then moves on to NCLB and Arnold’s stealing money from schools, and concludes with a comparison of raising student loan fee hikes by W and tuition hikes by Arnold.  All in all, a pretty effective ad.

I uploaded it to YouTube as well and it should be up and running in a few minutes:

The union cooperative organization Alliance for a Better California, will begin running ads tomorrow. From Political Muscle:

Alliance for a Better California, the union-backed group that defeated Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s legislative agenda last year, starts a TV advertising blitz Tuesday for Phil Angelides.

The advertising buy is certainly multiple millions of dollars and could last through election day.

This is the big union buy Angelides has been waiting for. The ads say nothing about Angelides, however; they are all about Schwarzenegger. This is an independent expenditure, outside the control of the Angelides campaign.

Better late than never I suppose.  A big ad buy certainly would have been very helpful in July when Phil was being battered by the Schwarzenegger negative ads.  However, the unions have finally decided that Arnold really hasn’t changed.  It’s just to risky to gamble on who Arnold 17.0 will be.