CTA joins AARP in saying “No on Prop 98!”

That's the BAD Prop 98 that will be on the ballot in the June primary, not the good Prop 98 from 1988.  Still sounds kind of weird to see the California Teacher Association opposed to Prop 98, though.  But the AARP and the CTA are not the only members of what is a growing coalition against the Hidden Agendas embodied in the BAD Prop 98. You can get the full list of groups that oppose these hidden agendas on Friday here or over the flip.  But, it's quite an impressive list, running the gamut from all areas, including environmental groups, senior groups, education groups, labor, religious organizations, homeowner's groups, business, and even farming groups.

I think it's also important to note that several good government groups, such as the League of Women Voters, have come together with organizations across the state to reject Prop 98. A lot of propositions get a lot of pushback, but few get this depth and this breadth of pushback. In this video, you see Senator Carole Migden (D-SF) talking about the long, hard fight that we're going to have wage against the Bad Prop 98. 

The Bad Prop 98 will eliminate rent control in California, make governance of our state even harder, and generally be a problem for Californians.  This Bad Prop 98 is really, really bad for progressives and bad for California.

WE OPPOSE PROP. 98 – THE HIDDEN AGENDAS SCHEME  

 

Senior  

 AARP  

 

 California Alliance for Retired Americans  

 

 Gray Panthers California  

 

 

 

 Business  

 

 Silicon Valley Leadership Group  

 

 

 

 Public Safety  

 

 California Police Chiefs Association  

 

 

 

 Education  

 

 California Teachers Association  

 

 California School Boards Association  

 

 

 

 Homeowners  

 

 League of California Homeowners  

 

 Golden State Manufactured-Home Owners League, Inc. 

 

      (GSMOL)  

 

 California Mobile Homes Resource and Action 

 

      Association  

 

 Coalition of Mobile Home Owners- California  

 

 Resident Owned Parks, Inc. (ROP)  

 

 California Coalition for Rural Housing  

 

 Butte County Mobile-Home Owners Association  

 

 GSMOL Chapter 1613  

 

 GSMOL Chapter 1279  

 

 GSMOL Chapter 708  

 

 Homeowners Association of Cameron 

 

      Mobile Estates  

 

 Mobilehome Residents Alliance of Nevada County  

 

 Mobile Parks West Homeowners Association  

 

 New Frontier Homeowner Association  

 

 Neighborhood Friends  

 

 Palos Verdes Shores Homeowners Association  

 

 Santa Ana Mobile Home Owners Association  

 

 Windsor Group  

 

 Mobile Home Owners Coalition  

 

 

 

 Agriculture  

 

 Western Growers Association  

 

 

 

 Water  

 

 Association of California Water Agencies  

 

 

 

 Consumer  

 

 Consumer Federation of California  

 

 

 

 Labor  

 

 State Building and Construction Trades Council  

 

 AFSCME 2712  

 

 International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers  

 

 Marin County Building and Construction Trades Council  

Renter Advocates/Housing Providers  

 Housing California  

 

 California Housing Consortium (CHC)  

 

 California Rural Legal Assistance Foundation  

 

 Coalition for Economic Survival  

 

 Eviction Defense Collaborative  

 

 Sacramento Mutual Housing Association  

 

 Inquilinos Unidos  

 

 Just Cause Oakland  

 

 San Francisco Tenants Union  

 

 Santa Monicans for Renters' Rights  

 

 Council of Tenants – Los Angeles  

 

 Eviction Defense Network  

 

 Lincoln Place Tenants Association  

 

 Oakland Tenants Union  

 

 

 

 Environmental  

 

 National Wildlife Federation  

 

 California League of Conservation Voters  

 

 Natural Resources Defense Council  

 

 Planning and Conservation League  

 

 Environmental Defense  

 

 Defenders of Wildlife  

 

 Greenbelt Alliance  

 

 Healthy Homes Collaborative  

 

 Mariposans for the Environment and  

 

 Responsible Government  

 

 Wild Heritage Planners  

 

 

 

 Public Interest/Community  

 

 League of Women Voters of California  

 

 Western Center on Law and Poverty  

 

 Community Advocacy Center  

 

 Inner City Law Center  

 

 Los Angeles Community Action Network  

 

 Miracle Mile Action Committee  

 

 Our City  

 

 Union de Vecinos  

 

 Los Angeles Community Legal Center and Educational  

 

 One Stop Immigration Counselor  

 

 

 

 Ethnic  

 

 Black, Asian, Minority and Ethnic Renaissance CDC  

 

 

 

 Government  

 

 League of California Cities  

 

 California State Association of Counties  

 

 California Special Districts Association  

 

 California Chapter of the American  

 

 Planning Association  

 

 California Redevelopment Association  

 

 

 

 Faith  

 

 California Church Impact  

 

 St. Anthony Foundation  

All Over But The Counting

There are still three weeks of counting left to go until the California Democratic primary is certified, and with delegate counts taking on such a significance, I thought I’d check in at the Secretary of State’s returns site to see where we’re at.

While thousands of new votes have been counted since the initial Election Day totals, the statewide vote has not moved significantly.  With over 4.3 million votes in, Hillary Clinton continues to lead, 52.0%-42.4%.  That extrapolates to a 71-58 lead for Clinton in the delegates that are apportioned statewide.  However, the Secretary of State’s office reports that 845,000 votes have yet to be counted in the Feb. 5 primary statewide – and that doesn’t include any outstanding votes from Los Angeles County, the most populous in the state.  Frank Russo estimates that maybe 1.5 million votes have yet to be counted, and we can say with some confidence that almost a million of those could be cast in the Democratic race.  This has the ability to impact that statewide number, as well as several close Congressional districts where delegates could flip.

over…

The uncounted votes thus far are greatest in Sacramento, Orange and San Diego counties, with over 300,000 in those three counties alone.  Orange County went pretty strong for Clinton, while Sacramento and San Diego were more of a mix.  Also remember that there are around 94,000 votes uncounted due to the “double bubble trouble” in LA County.  The registrar has started a hand count of 1% of those ballots, but a full count is still being demanded, so that could shift things.

Here are the districts where the delegates could flip:

CA-01: Barack Obama has a 450-vote lead in this 5-delegate district, so that could go from 3-2 Obama to 3-2 Clinton.

CA-04: unlikely that Obama can overcome a 3,000-vote lead, so 3-2 Clinton.  However, there are 15,000 votes out in Placer County, so keep an eye on this one.

CA-16: Clinton is very close to getting a 3-1 split in Zoe Lofgren’s district.  You need 62.5% of the head-to-head vote and she now has 62.47%.  I’m not sure if they round up.  This one could obviously shift.

CA-17: It’s a 2,600-vote lead for Clinton right now, but there are 30,000 votes left to count in Monterey County, so a shift is plausible.

CA-18: The current 3-1 split for Clinton could go down to 2-2 if Obama comes back a little.

CA-23: Obama’s lead is just 2,200 votes, but Santa Barbara County is not reporting any votes left to count, so this could be safe.

CA-40: Clinton’s got 61.89% of the head-to-head votes here and needs 62.5%, so it’s possible.

CA-41: Clinton has 63.6% of the head-to-head vote, enough for a 3-1 delegate split, but Obama could shrink this enough to get it back to 2-2.

CA-45: Clinton has 63.6% of the head-to-head vote, enough for a 3-1 delegate split, but Obama could shrink this enough to get it back to 2-2.

CA-50: This was a lot closer before, but Clinton now has about a 1,000-vote lead in this 5-delegate district with a lot left to count, so anything can happen.

CA-51: This one is razor-thin.  Clinton needs 62.5% for a 3-1 delegate split, and she now has 62.42%.

CA-53: About 250 votes separate Obama and Clinton.

As it stands right now, by my calculations Hillary Clinton leads in delegates 205-165.  That could change by +5 on the Clinton side and +7 on the Obama side.  So we could see as high as a 210-160 split, or as low as a 198-172 split.  And that’s not factoring in how the statewide delegates could fluctuate, which is probably as much as 3 delegates on either side, given all those votes left to count.  So the best-case scenario for Clinton is a 56-delegate lead out of California, and the worst-case is a 20-delegate lead.  That’s how much this can change.  So nobody bank on anything just yet.

SD-03: Joe Nation enters the race

Well, I must say, the timing of this is a bit surprising.  Former Assembly member Joe Nation has decided to run for State Senate in the 3rd district. From Mr. Nation on his candidacy:

“It’s late to be getting in in some respects,” Nation said after his announcement in a patch of wetlands near the Petaluma Marina on Saturday. Migden and Leno have been campaigning for more than a year already, while Veronese began only slight later, he said.

But Nation said he was “thrilled” by poll results showing a dead heat between him, Migden and Leno if he entered the race, with lesser known Veronese trailing.

“I know it will be a sprint,” he said, but plans to take a leave from his consulting work, allowing more time to campaign. “I more or less have 16 hours a day, seven days a week to work, and I think I can get it done,” he said. (Santa Rosa Press-Democrat 2/9/08)

The polls he references are internals, of course, but I’d expect that to be fairly reasonable. Nation has decent, but not great, name ID in the district from his days in the Assembly and from his ill-fated run against progressive Democrat Lynn Woolsey. However, I would imagine that there are a lot of people who remember the guy well. He’s a pretty smart guy when it comes to policy, that has never been the question.

The question of how this affects the race are quite numerous. It substantially diminishes Joe Veronese’s chances, given that the son of Angela Alioto was trying quite hard to lure those North Bay constituents. Nation’s entrance into the race puts that much more incentive for SF to either rally around one candidate, or face the possibility of being represented in the Senate from outside of the County.

Either way, it is even more clear that SD-03 will be the most interesting legislative primary this year.

Remembering Representative Tom Lantos: 1928-2008

Representative Tom Lantos has succumbed to esophageal cancer today in Washington, DC. The 80-year-old Congressman has represented parts of San Francisco and the Peninsula for the better part of thirty years.

He was a commanding figure in both the Capitol and in the Bay Area. His personal story was amazing and powerful. He escaped the Holocaust with the assistance of Raoul Wallenberg, a Swedish diplomat who issued passports for those fleeing the Nazi death camps, but most of his family perished in the Holocaust.

While I didn’t always agree with Rep. Lantos, I always knew that his motivation was always the best interests of America and the pursuit of human rights across the globe. Rep. Lantos’ voice will be missed.

Rep. Tom Lantos 1928-2008

Already a quick hit, AP/SacBee has the unfortunate news:

Rep. Tom Lantos of California, the only Holocaust survivor to serve in Congress, has died, his spokeswoman said Monday.

Lynne Weil said that Lantos, 80, passed away at the Bethesda Naval Medical Center in suburban Maryland.

Lantos was the only Holocaust survivor in Congress and had a long record on human rights issues.

Lantos, who was elected to the House in 1980, founded the Congressional Human Rights Caucus in 1983. In early 2004 he led the first congressional delegation to Libya in more than 30 years, meeting personally with Moammar Gadhafi and urging the Bush administration to show “good faith” to the North African leader in his pledge to abandon his nuclear weapons programs. Later that year, President Bush lifted sanctions against Libya.

Lantos had already announced his retirement because of the cancer.  He becomes the second California member of Congress to succumb to cancer in this session after Juanita Millender-McDonald who passed away in April.

Tom Lantos was a giant and will be missed both as a legislator and a person.

Update: Capitol Alert notes there will be a special election for the seat before November, possibly in tandem with the June election.