Tag Archives: delegate counts

Final California Tally

Though Barack Obama has been nominated by the Democratic Party by acclamation, the delegate counts still are tabulated.  And I just heard that the final count here in California was 263-169.

FWIW.

…let me update.  Apparently it was 273 for Obama, 166 for Clinton, with two superdelegates not voting, one of them DiFi, who isn’t here.

…the fact that California was the only state of the ones that went through the roll call that had to pass because they didn’t have all the votes cast… well, the word “disorganization” comes to mind.  Of course, it’s also the largest delegation, so it’s maybe understandable.

Report: Feinstein Puts Pressure on Hillary Clinton

Apparently, Sen. Feinstein is asking Hillary Clinton for her primary “game plan”.

“I, as you know, have great fondness and great respect for Sen. Clinton and I’m very loyal to her,” Feinstein said. “Having said that, I’d like to talk with her and [get] her view on the rest of the race and what the strategy is.”

Clinton, who eked out a win in Indiana Tuesday night but lost big to front-runner Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) in North Carolina, has not responded to Feinstein’s phone call, the California senator said.

“I think the race is reaching the point now where there are negative dividends from it, in terms of strife within the party,” Feinstein said. “I think we need to prevent that as much as we can.”

Interesting.  What I’d like to see is Feinstein show some leadership on the Rules Committee and block Hans von Spakovsky’s resurrected nomination to the FEC.  But I’d say DiFi is as good a bellweather as there is of the emerging CW on the Democratic nomination fight.

In other news, California superdelegate Inola Henry committed to Obama today.

I’d Like To Start A Flame War

Well, I guess it’s down to me to take the contrarian view of this whole list purge business.

The short answer is that activists aren’t owed seats in Denver just because they’re activists.  It’s perfectly legitimate for the Obama campaign to reward supporters who walked precincts, made phone calls, dropped lit, stayed up late at the campaign office, and generally did anything and everything logistically to help the candidate win California (confidentially, I was told by someone high-up on the campaign last night that they did indeed tie on Election Day; it was the absentees that swung the race to Clinton).  Just being a good activist is not enough.  You’re actually not going to the convention to represent the party, you’d be going as an Obama or Clinton delegate, representing the candidate.  Honestly, considering that there were about 1,000 precinct captains in California, if you weren’t one, you shouldn’t be an Obama delegate.  Bottom line.

What I and many of us object to is the haphazard, seemingly random standard applied here, where delegates with little or no ground experience remained on the ballot, while those with a lot didn’t (like the guy in CA-36 who was a paid Richardson staffer who remains on the Obama list).  Because you’re talking about 1,700 delegates, there are lots of arguments you can make for why the campaign chose one candidate or another, but they’re all unprovable and contradicted by the group in the next district over.  The people still in the race range from bundlers to people who never gave a dime, those who worked their hearts out to those who didn’t lift a finger, progressive antiwar activists to those who aren’t as vocal.  When you’re talking about 1,700 for 108 slots, there’s not going to be any one reason, and anyone who says otherwise is being extremely myopic.  In addition, there are the well-established CDP demographic rules and needs, so compiling a list that will fit those needs is probably a great puzzle.  And also, practically everyone on the Obama campaign is in Pennsylvania or North Carolina and Indiana by now, so the vetting process had to be undertaken by a very small number of people.

Over…

I’m not defending the Obama campaign at all, but I have to say that there are those in the grassroots that need to, and this is where the flame war might begin, grow up.  You don’t just automatically get to be a delegate to the DNC because of who you are or what you advocate, even.  You ought to get it because of what you’ve done, real work on a personal level.  If you did and you were culled, that’s wrong.  If you didn’t and you’re still on that list, that’s wrong.  But it’s a huge undertaking and you have one or two staffers making value judgments on 1,700 people based on all sorts of criteria, and there’s bound to be slippage and “my activism is better than your activism” arguments.

What’s more, if you actually think your activism is better than someone else’s activism, you can actually appeal to a higher power!  From an email:

It is actually Brent Messenger in Northern California that vetted the candidates.

brent.messenger-at-gmail-dot-com

What they are asking for is evidence like “you were a precinct captain for Obama”

They are purging all people besides those that worked heavily on the campaign.  

They want FOR SURE Obama delegates.  

I spoke with Laura of LAgrassroots4obama and they are rewarding people that have spent the last year of their lives on planes and in the volunteer office.

If you are in Southern California and truly worked on the Obama Campaign prior to the Feb 5 Primary and were cut from the candidate list contact Laura:

laura-at-LAgrassroots4obama-dot-com

I do think the Obama people are a little paranoid from Clinton’s whole “there’s no such thing as a pledged delegate” shtick, and they let it get inside their heads.  But people who did the time should get the prize.  So if you did the work, don’t mourn, send an email and organize.  If you didn’t work and you’re pissed, all politics is local so go talk to your neighbors instead of deciding you’re entitled to a trip to Denver.

I’d Like To Start A Flame War

Well, I guess it’s down to me to take the contrarian view of this whole list purge business.

The short answer is that activists aren’t owed seats in Denver just because they’re activists.  It’s perfectly legitimate for the Obama campaign to reward supporters who walked precincts, made phone calls, dropped lit, stayed up late at the campaign office, and generally did anything and everything logistically to help the candidate win California (confidentially, I was told by someone high-up on the campaign last night that they did indeed tie on Election Day; it was the absentees that swung the race to Clinton).  Just being a good activist is not enough.  You’re actually not going to the convention to represent the party, you’d be going as an Obama or Clinton delegate, representing the candidate.  Honestly, considering that there were about 1,000 precinct captains in California, if you weren’t one, you shouldn’t be an Obama delegate.  Bottom line.

What I and many of us object to is the haphazard, seemingly random standard applied here, where delegates with little or no ground experience remained on the ballot, while those with a lot didn’t (like the guy in CA-36 who was a paid Richardson staffer who remains on the Obama list).  Because you’re talking about 1,700 delegates, there are lots of arguments you can make for why the campaign chose one candidate or another, but they’re all unprovable and contradicted by the group in the next district over.  The people still in the race range from bundlers to people who never gave a dime, those who worked their hearts out to those who didn’t lift a finger, progressive antiwar activists to those who aren’t as vocal.  When you’re talking about 1,700 for 108 slots, there’s not going to be any one reason, and anyone who says otherwise is being extremely myopic.  In addition, there are the well-established CDP demographic rules and needs, so compiling a list that will fit those needs is probably a great puzzle.  And also, practically everyone on the Obama campaign is in Pennsylvania or North Carolina and Indiana by now, so the vetting process had to be undertaken by a very small number of people.

Over…

I’m not defending the Obama campaign at all, but I have to say that there are those in the grassroots that need to, and this is where the flame war might begin, grow up.  You don’t just automatically get to be a delegate to the DNC because of who you are or what you advocate, even.  You ought to get it because of what you’ve done, real work on a personal level.  If you did and you were culled, that’s wrong.  If you didn’t and you’re still on that list, that’s wrong.  But it’s a huge undertaking and you have one or two staffers making value judgments on 1,700 people based on all sorts of criteria, and there’s bound to be slippage and “my activism is better than your activism” arguments.

What’s more, if you actually think your activism is better than someone else’s activism, you can actually appeal to a higher power!  From an email:

It is actually Brent Messenger in Northern California that vetted the candidates.

brent.messenger-at-gmail-dot-com

What they are asking for is evidence like “you were a precinct captain for Obama”

They are purging all people besides those that worked heavily on the campaign.  

They want FOR SURE Obama delegates.  

I spoke with Laura of LAgrassroots4obama and they are rewarding people that have spent the last year of their lives on planes and in the volunteer office.

If you are in Southern California and truly worked on the Obama Campaign prior to the Feb 5 Primary and were cut from the candidate list contact Laura:

laura-at-LAgrassroots4obama-dot-com

I do think the Obama people are a little paranoid from Clinton’s whole “there’s no such thing as a pledged delegate” shtick, and they let it get inside their heads.  But people who did the time should get the prize.  So if you did the work, don’t mourn, send an email and organize.  If you didn’t work and you’re pissed, all politics is local so go talk to your neighbors instead of deciding you’re entitled to a trip to Denver.

…I would also say that a part of the problem was having post-primary delegate elections in the first place.  Before the primary it would have been very clear to the candidate who the supporters and activists were and there wouldn’t have been so many mistakes.  Susie Shannon’s delegate selection proposal was far more reasoned and thought-out than what we ended up with.  Her letter from July 10 of last year is prescient.

July 10, 2007

Dear Delegate Selection Committee,

At the Los Angeles Delegate Selection Plan Hearing I testified that my

main concern regarding holding delegate elections post-primary is that it

encourages opportunism over loyalty to a candidate. The plan, as

presented, opens the door for supporters of candidates receiving low votes

in the primary to take over the delegate elections of candidates receiving

high votes.

It is my strong opinion that delegates of presidential candidates to the

Democratic National Convention should be representatives of that candidate

and should, to the best extent possible, be loyal supporters.

How are we to stay unified through the 2008 general election if we create

a process that risks fracturing California Democrats between those who

work hard and are loyal supporters of a particular candidate and those

looking to become delegates any way possible? The delegate selection

plan as presented also raises basic issues of fair play and can be

disheartening for hard working democrats who we hope will maintain a

strong will to work through the 2008 general election.

After the Los Angeles hearing I spoke to Eric Bauman about the possibility

of having elections post-primary but setting the delegate filing deadline

prior to the California primary. I also mentioned this plan to the 42nd

AD delegates at our meeting last month and to various other delegates and

E-Board members of the CDP. I believe that some of them have already

submitted testimony to your committee. This seems to me the only fair and

logical compromise. It would allow candidates more time to locate venues

and arrange for elections post-Iowa Caucus, but also create a more fair

delegate selection process in California.

My proposal is to set the delegate application deadline for January 31,

2008 (pre-California primary) and hold elections the weekend of March 1,

2008 – 30 days from the application deadline.

I hope that this proposal will be given serious consideration by the

Delegate Selection committee.

The Final, Final, Final Numbers from the Feb. 5 Primary

OK, on Saturday the Secretary of State’s office released the final official canvass of the vote in California.  The statewide numbers are here.  The district-level numbers are here.  A few notes:

• Turns out that, in final balloting, Hillary Clinton surged to 62.88% of the head-to-head vote in CA-51, giving her a 3-1 split in that district.  So the final delegate numbers will be 204-166.  So Clinton got 54.4% of the head-to-head vote against Barack Obama, and 55.14% of the delegates.

• The final percentage spread between Clinton and Obama was 8.3%, noticeably lower than previous reports.

• We had over 5 million voters participate in the California Democratic primary.  That’s 55% of the total votes cast and over SEVENTY-FOUR PERCENT of registered Democratic voters.  Wow.  Those numbers are here.  We also received two million more votes in the Democratic primary than in the Republican primary.  The total turnout was the highest ever by raw numbers, and the highest as a percentage of registered voters since 1980, when some guy named Reagan was on the ballot.

You can get to all the numbers from here, a lot of fun stuff in there.

Chuck Todd Lies On National Television

So I’m watching Countdown, and Olbermann brings up the delegate math in the wake of Barack Obama’s victory in Mississippi.  He teases a discussion with Chuck Todd about “changes in the delegates in Texas, one week after the voting, and changes in the delegates in California, one MONTH later!”

So I think to myself, “Self, are you about to be mentioned on Countdown?”  Because, as has been well-documented, it was changes originated on this website that led to the national media meekly changing their delegate totals to reflect reality.

So Chuck Todd comes on the show, and Olbermann asks him about California, and Todd hems and haws about there being “a lot of absentee and provisional ballots counted late” in the state, which is true, and about how some 3-1 delegate splits in various districts changed to 2-2, which is also true.  Then he said, “and so when all the votes came in, it turns out Obama netted four delegates out of these districts in the last week.” (rough transcript)

Yeah, that’s actually kind of a lie.  There has been no movement in the delegate count since CA-53 flipped to Obama on February 15.  Most of the delegate changes happened very early.  MSNBC just turned away from the counting, neglected to pay attention, and now makes the demonstrably false statement that Obama netted delegates “in the last week.”

What actually happened was that my post about the real delegate counts got picked up by the Wall Street Journal and shamed the entire national media into getting it right.  But I guess that wouldn’t sound too good on Countdown.

It’ll sound good in my email to Keith.

WSJ on the National Media’s CA Delegate Problem

The Wall Street Journal has a writeup on my findings of the discrepancy between the national media’s California delegate counts and, you know, the actual count.  

A California politics blogger has argued that Sen. Clinton won 36 more pledged delegates in the state than Sen. Obama, rather than the 44-delegate margin that has long been included in the news organizations’ tallies. A spokesman for the state party confirms the blogger’s numbers.

The shift, if validated once the state certifies its election results this week and the party chooses its delegates, is a reminder that the commonly reported delegate totals are mere estimates, subject to change as states finalize election results. It also highlights how a blogger with intense focus on the numbers may be faster than the established delegate counters.

David Dayden, who blogs at the site Calitics and serves on its editorial board, wrote last week that Sen. Clinton won 203 of the state’s 370 pledged delegates – and not the commonly reported total of 207. He relied on updated vote totals from the state, based on late counts of absentee and provisional ballots. Later, when he noticed that several major news organizations still were showing Sen. Clinton with 207 delegates, he wrote a follow-up post explaining his calculation and exhorting, “I know math is hard and everything, but get out your calculators, people.”

I’ve long since given up on trying to correct the misspelling of my name, the most misspelled five-letter word in the English language.  But the author did a good job describing the situation.  The “delegate counters” at the media outlets have pretty much ignored these states once Election Day ends.  As Bob Mulholland rightly points out in the piece, this count has been this way for at least two weeks.  There was ample time to catch up.  But it took public pressure to get them to do it:

The New York Times’s page for California results shows the 207-163 result, but a page listing delegate totals for each state showed the 203-167 margin. NBC and CBS still showed the 207-163 margin. An inquiry to New York Times polling editor Janet Elder wasn’t returned. An NBC spokesman told me, “Apparently, there are discrepancies between the state count and the individual county tallies.” Kathy Frankovic, director of surveys for CBS News, told me, “delegate allocation is a work in progress.” (UPDATE: Ms. Frankovic told me later Monday that CBS would update its totals to reflect the 203-167 margin. “Thanks for alerting us to the problem,” she said.)

NBC is spinning madly.  They just stopped paying attention.

The official canvass will be done on March 15, and we’ll know at that point what the final number is.  Until then, I wouldn’t trust anything on those “delegate scoreboards”.

More on the Delegate Count

The best thing in the world about CA Secretary of State Debra Bowen is that the best way to reach her is through her Facebook page.  So she got back to me pretty quickly when I asked about this delegate situation.  I was wrong about a couple things.  The vote has not been certified, although I was led to believe that the counting had to stop within 30 days of the voting, which would have been March 4.  In fact, that may be true; but the county registrars have a few days left to report their results.  Also, it’s up to the state Democratic Party to award the delegates, but that’s based on the certified vote count in the respective districts.  The upshot is that the counties have to report by March 11, and Secretary of State Bowen will certify the vote by March 15.  Then the CDP will award delegates based on that.

So the numbers are still subject to change slightly.  But none of this should obscure the fact that, based on the current numbers, the delegate count is 203-167.  And the zombie lie that it’s different has spread to the pages of the Washington Post:

To be sure, Team Obama’s small-state strategy may have been the candidate’s only option against a far-better-known opponent, and it has worked. In the Feb. 5 Super Tuesday contests that Obama’s campaign staff had hoped to merely survive, Obama and Clinton just about broke even. He won more delegates in Kansas and Idaho than she won in New Jersey. Her big win in California — with its net gain of 41 delegates — was negated by his wins in Georgia and Nebraska.

Except the net gain is currently 36 delegates, but what the hell do I know, I’m not some big-city editor.

Not Even A Thank You?

Yesterday I wrote a diary proving that the national media had their delegate counts completely wrong for weeks.  I sent an email to the AP referencing this and asking them to change their counts.  

Well, here’s where we are after Day 1.  Real Clear Politics changed their count.  The New York Times changed their count.  CBS has not.  MSNBC has not.  CNN still has it at 204-161 with five delegates undecided.

To the Times and RCP: you’re welcome.  To the others: get with the damn program.

I have calls and emails in to the Secretary of State’s office to confirm this, but I’m going by their own numbers.

Hey, Catch Up, National Media

Being that I kind of don’t pay attention to the national media’s delegate counts, I hadn’t realized that they were all getting California so very, very wrong, and in fact are about 800,000 votes off from the official tally.  Apparently many news organizations predict that Clinton will reap 207 delegates from California, and Obama 163.  MSNBC has this.  Real Clear Politics has this.  CBS has this.  The New York Times has this.  CNN has it as 204-161 with 5 to be decided.  They’re all simply wrong, and I know math is hard and everything, but get out your calculators, people.

Here’s an example at MSNBC’s site.  They list 2,144,251 votes for Clinton and 1,746,013 for Obama, which was right… about two weeks ago.  The actual official returns, readily available at the Secretary of State’s website, are 2,553,784 for Clinton and 2,126,600 for Obama.  That’s really, really off.  The final percentage is 8.7% and MSNBC lists it as 10%.  And that translates to a 70-59 split in delegates statewide.  They’re probably getting that wrong, too, not recognizing that there are two kinds of statewide delegates which are calculated separately.  When you add in the district-level delegate allocation (and I could list them all, but trust me on this), you get 203-167.  It takes about 10 minutes to come up with this and it’s completely irresponsible for the national media to have this wrong for over two weeks, and to relentlessly show a graphic of delegate counts with bad, outdated information.  In fact, it calls into question ALL of their other counts.

MSNBC, The New York Times, CBS, CNN and RCP need to get this right, today.  They’re screwing up and hurting America (again).  What a bunch of incompetents.

UPDATE: Just to embarrass the national media further, I’m going to show my work on the flip.

I noted the popular vote totals before: 2,553,784 for Clinton and 2,126,600 for Obama.  All other candidate totals drop out because they’re under 15%, so the statewide delegates are factored by proportion of the head-to-head vote.  There are 81 at-large delegates and 48 PLEO (Party Leader/Elected Official) delegates.  If you do the math, Hillary got 54.56% of the head-to-head, and that factors to a 44-37 split on at-large and a 26-22 split on PLEOs.

So we’re at 70-59.  The delegate allocations for each of the 53 districts are here.  The district-wide returns are here.  The key numbers are:

It takes 62.5001% of the head-to-head vote for a 3-1 split in a 4-delegate district.

It takes 58.3301% of the head-to-head vote for a 4-2 split in a 6-delegate district.

In the 21 CDs with an odd number of delegates, the presidential candidate with the most votes gets the most delegates in each of those CDs.

So, and you can do this math yourself given all the parameters outlined for you:

District   Delegates  Obama   Clinton

CA-01           5               3             2

CA-02           4               2             2

CA-03           4               2             2

CA-04           5               2             3

CA-05           5               3             2

CA-06           6               3             3

CA-07           5               2             3

CA-08           6               3             3

CA-09           6               4             2

CA-10           5               2             3

CA-11           4               2             2

CA-12           6               3             3

CA-13           5               2             3

CA-14           6               3             3

CA-15           5               2             3

CA-16           4               2             2  (this one is really close, but she has 62.47% of that vote)

CA-17           5               2             3

CA-18           4               1             3

CA-19           4               2             2

CA-20           3               1             2

CA-21           4               1             3

CA-22           4               2             2

CA-23           5               3             2

CA-24           5               2             3

CA-25           4               2             2

CA-26           4               2             2

CA-27           5               2             3

CA-28           5               2             3

CA-29           5               2             3

CA-30           6               3             3

CA-31           4               1             3

CA-32           4               1             3

CA-33           5               3             2

CA-34           4               1             3

CA-35           5               3             2

CA-36           5               2             3

CA-37           5               3             2

CA-38           4               1             3

CA-39           4               1             3

CA-40           4               2             2

CA-41           4               1             3

CA-42           4               2             2

CA-43           4               1             3

CA-44           4               2             2

CA-45           4               1             3

CA-46           4               2             2

CA-47           3               1             2

CA-48           4               2             2

CA-49           4               2             2

CA-50           5               2             3

CA-51           4               2             2

CA-52           4               2             2

CA-53           5               3             2

If you add that all up, the district totals are 133 for Clinton and 108 for Obama.  Add that to the 70-59 statewide split, and it’s 203-167.

Nice job, national media.