Pelosi to superdelegates: Don’t overrule the voters

Speaker Nancy Pelosi has added her voice to those who are calling on the superdelegates not to overrule the voters.  She joins MoveOn, Democracy for America and many more in urging the superdelegates not to determine the winner of the Democratic presidential primary by what amounts to a vote in a smokey back room. ChronBlog

Don’t veto the people’s choice.

“I think there is a concern when the public speaks and there is a counter-decision made to that,” she said, adding quickly, “I don’t think that will happen.”

She said the governors, lawmakers, DNC members and others picked as super delegates are chosen through a grassroots process and are accountable to the party’s voters.

“I do think that they have a respect — it’s not just following the returns, it’s also having a respect for what has been said by the people,” Pelosi said. “It would be a problem for the party if the verdict would be something different than the public has decided.”

This is obviously an argument that would appear to most benefit Barack Obama, given that he currently leads in both the pledged delegate count and the popular vote.  Speaker Pelosi’s opinion should wield a great deal of influence on her fellow superdelegates.

Several of those members of the House closest to Pelosi like Rep. George Miller have endorsed Obama.  Miller is on the team of current legislators tasked with swaying superdelegates to endorse Obama.  The Speaker is rumored to be supportive of Obama, but does not want to undermine her own authority by making an endorsement.  I have to assume that there is a two pronged approach from the Obama superdelegate team: if they don’t get the outright endorsement, supporting the “let the people decide” tact is almost as good.

50 State Roundup

There are some interesting stories coming out of the 50 State community blogs. If you don't see your favorite state on the list check out the state blogrolls at Open Left and MyDD.

Texas
   Phillip Martin of Burnt Orange Report lays out the strategy of how Barack Obama can win Texas.

Oregon
   First recorded version of Ginsberg's HOWL was in Berkley, right? Nope–a new discovery puts it at Portland's Reed College, 52 years ago this Valentine's Day.

Michigan
   Clinton, Obama campaigning for – but not IN – Michigan

Iowa
   desmoinesdem discusses the preferences of Iowa's superdelegates and notes that Democracy for America has endorsed Ed Fallon, who is challenging incumbent Leonard Boswell in the primary to represent Iowa's third Congressional district.

New York
   The Daily Gotham diagnoses a rebellion among national Democrats and wonders what that means for the State of New York.

Texas
   As the focus on the Democratic Presidential Primary shifts to Texas, Fort Worth Is Fired Up and Ready to Go!

Arizona
   Incumbent Republican John Shadegg is out of the picture in AZ CD3 and Bob Lord has received increased support from local and national Democrats.

California
   Arnold Schwarzenegger talks a big game about putting all options on the table, but won't be forthright about the need to raise revenue.

New Mexico
   New Mexico's filing deadline came and went this week, and now we know who is running for the three open House and one open Senate seats. Fun times.

Delaware
   Republican State Rep. Nancy Wagner uses earmarks to give her husband a job. Rev. Chris Bullock announces his candidacy for Delaware's sole congressional seat. State Sen. Harris McDowell delays Delaware's move to wind power with meaningless hearings.

Virginia
   RK Conference Call with Gov. Kaine.

South Dakota
   What Was That You Were Saying, Gov. Rounds?

Utah
   Is Utah the worlds nuclear landfill?

West Virginia
   W.Va. state Sen. Hunter says “I introduced Senate Bill 588 because I fervently believe that God did not intend for us to destroy the mountains, the streams, the forests and His people in order to mine coal.” Jay the Telcom Operator: Sen Rockefeller's unwavering support of telco immunity earns him a new nickname “One Ringy-Dingy Rocky” (with a must-see photoplay by OneCitizen).

Minnesota
   SurveyUSA indicates a dead heat between incumbent Republican Norm Coleman and Democratic challenger Al Franken.

Alabama
   Mooncat brings us a heartbreaker on Valentines Day. Read about payday lenders preying on the elderly and disabled.

Colorado
   At Squarestate, David Sirota is reporting a Colorado Superdelegate plans to ignore the will of Colorado voters.

North Carolina
   At BlueNC, Jerimee reports that Congressman Brad Miller has taken a leadership role in passing the contempt resolution.

Connecticut
   Shays embarrasses Connecticut…..again.

Wisconsin
   At Uppity Wisconsin, xoff says Wisconsin doesn't need another presidential debate.

Georgia
   At Tondee's Tavern we find tha Rep. David Scott flipped to Obama and Rep. John Lewis is looking that way.

Idaho
   At 43rd State Blues Idahogie takes on the Super Delegate petitions floating around with a convincing argument.

Illinois
   At Prairie State Blue, Michael in Chicago writes about raising Democratic visibility.

Indiana
   Must see video at Blue Indiana. An Indiana State Rep., John Elrod (R) is caught on tape doing campaign work during a legislative session.

Maryland
   Donna Edwards wins! And Eric looks at the implications of that victory.

We can’t even get the Yacht Loophole Fixed?

So, this is rapidly breaking news here. As of right now, Assembly Members Price and Calderon abstained from voting on the yacht loophole fix. All other Dems voted yes, with Assembly Member Soto being out sick, we don't have the 41 votes necessary to fix the yacht loophole. What does it say if we can't get even this smallest of revenue fixes passed?

As an aside, apparently Sen. Denham is taking this recall effort seriously. He voted against some of the spending cuts. Interesting. I'll update when I learn more.  

UPDATE: The Yacht Loophole has failed. Call Assembly members Curren Price ((916) 319-2051) and Chuck Calderon (Tel: (916) 319-2058) to “thank” them for not bothering to support closing this tax loophole. I wonder how many yachts are being delivered to Inglewood and City of Industry, respectively. Nice to see the Assembly members putting their constituents first.  Contact them today to ask them why yachts are more important than education.

Of course the Republicans all either voted no or abstained. It looks like Denham will vote to fix the yacht loophole, but without the Assembly support, it doesn't matter all that much. More updates as I get them.

Price: Capitol Office:
State Capitol
P.O. Box 942849
Sacramento, CA
94249-0051
Tel: (916) 319-2051
Fax: (916) 319-2151

District Office:
One West Manchester
Boulevard, Suite 601
Inglewood, CA 90301
Tel: (310) 412-6400
Fax: (310) 412-6354

Calderon: Capitol Office:
State Capitol
P.O. Box 942849
Sacramento, CA 94249-0058
Tel: (916) 319-2058
Fax: (916) 319-2158

District Office:
13181 N. Crossroads Parkway
Suite 160
City of Industry, CA 91746
Tel: (562) 692-5858
Fax: (562) 695-5852

Budget Cuts To Pass Today

This morning, in a matter of minutes, the State Senate and State Assembly will ratify the emergency cuts which will “ensure the state will have enough cash to get through the fiscal year.”

While the cuts are not nearly as severe as what was requested by the Governor, and of course this only impacts the current fiscal year and not the projected $14.5 billion dollar deficit, it offers something of a template, one would assume, for how the future budget problems will be approached.  There’s a very good summary of what will be affected by the California Budget Project here (PDF).  Some of it is creative accounting, a small sliver of it closes tax loopholes like Dick Ackerman’s yacht loophole (and even Republicans voted for that), but a good deal of it will manifest themselves in a reduction of needed services.  I guess the best you can say is “it could have been worse,” and at least one tiny loophole (worth about $5 million this year and $21 million in 2008-09) was closed.

I think I’m being a little charitable.

Frank Russo, as usual, has more.

Republicans acknowledged in today’s hearings that these were painful cuts being made. Both Republicans and Democrats spoke with passion about many of these cuts-sometimes expressing hopes that when next year budget is adopted that some of the cuts can be reversed. The need for speed was acknowledged by all, as California is in danger of running out of funds to pay ongoing expenses.

It was a “back-against-the-wall” solution, and it shows.  We now have several months until the deadline for the next budget.  That needs to be addressed in a manner where cuts-only solutions are not forced by circumstance.

Will Democrats Shock Doctrine Us On the Budget?

The “emergency cuts” discussed here yesterday are expected to pass both chambers of the legislature today and go to Arnold for an expected signature. Education, public transit, and health care face the bulk of the cuts, but most of the plan involves “creative accounting” to defer certain expenditures to the 2008-09 budget year, stabilizing the state’s cash flow for the remainder of the 2007-08 year.

That leaves the big fight – the “big kahuna” as Fabian Núñez called it – for the 2008-09 budget. Unfortunately, Núñez is already trying to prepare Californians for acceptance of the Republican frame on the budget, that it must be closed through cuts. As quoted in the Bee article linked above:

“This is just the icing on the cake,” said Núñez before the committee vote Thursday. “What’s coming in the budget year are devastating cuts.”

Núñez has spoken of a 50-50 split between new taxes and cuts to close the budget, but these are  not necessary. In fact, no cuts are necessary. The California Tax Reform Association has identified $17 billion in potential new revenues that would help ease our budget crisis, without firing a single teacher, denying health care to a single child, or closing a single state park. When I mentioned to Steve Maviglio that the yacht tax loophole closure wasn’t a big deal he claimed that the 2/3 rule blocked more useful tax measures.

But what he hasn’t considered is that 2/3 can still be achieved, even for tax hikes, even when you need Republican votes to get it. You have to force the Republicans to vote for it. Back them up against a wall, with a massive public campaign. Already teachers are mobilizing public campaigns to fight the cuts, and over the next few weeks, a coordinated campaign could push the Republicans into a corner where they either have to insist on unpopular cuts and thereby risk their seats in the November election, or go along with a mostly-taxes budget solution.

How do we know this would work? It’s what Republicans do to Democrats all the time in Sacramento and DC.

When Núñez says instead we should prepare for “devastating cuts,” he is kneecapping these efforts to provide public unity and to educate the public as to why our revenue shortfall has led California to economic crisis. No Democrat should EVER be telling the public we might need budget cuts, certainly not at the outset of what will be a long fight. What is needed most is unity and mobilization, and the only way you accomplish that, as Dave Johnson agrees, standing together and articulating progressive solutions – not parroting right-wing spin.

As I’ve argued before, Arnold is trying to “shock doctrine” us on the budget – create a crisis that is actually the vehicle for pushing through radical changes we would otherwise never accept. As Naomi Klein as well as the WGA have pointed out the only way to resist the shock doctrine is to stop speaking in a language of crisis, start speaking instead in a language of unity and determination to build a better future, and to actually remain united in the face of those trying to divide you.

It’s time that Sacramento Democrats understood this. They have a golden opportunity to both reverse 30 years of decline and to benefit at the ballot box by doing so. But if they insist on accepting the Republican frame that spending cuts  must be the primary method to close the deficit, they’ll accomplish neither.

Double Bubble and Other CA Voter Trouble

( – promoted by David Dayen)

Full disclosure: I work for the Courage Campaign

BradBlog, as is the norm over there, provides an excellent evaluation of where things currently stand with the DTS ‘double bubble’ ballots.  It’s long, in-depth, and awesome. In part:

For the moment then, some 50,000 voters in Los Angeles County have had their votes for Presidential candidate currently miscounted. An intended vote for Hillary Clinton, for example, has not been registered as a vote for her. She has lost that vote for the moment, and the voter has been disenfranchised. Needlessly.

Moreover, current acting Registrar Dean Logan is claiming that, due to the fact that the same sets of bubbles were used for both Dem and AI candidates, it’s “impossible” to determine with absolute certainty the intent of the voter. But he is wrong. In almost every single case.

The current miscount/error rate for those 50,000 ballots is now at 100%. Thus, any ballot counted at this point will only lower the current miscount/error rate.

Since almost every single one of those ballots can be counted accurately, as per the voter intent, beyond a shadow of a doubt, it’s an absolute absurdity and outrage that Logan is claiming that none of them can be, as he argued in an absurd report [PDF] delivered to the County’s Board of Supervisor’s on Monday.

He closes with an elegant summation:

The excuses must stop. Dean Logan must get to work and start counting. NOW.

Any questions?

But w-w-w-wait it gets worse…

The Sacramento Bee has a love note for democracy this Valentine’s Day.  There are still 1 million ballots uncounted from the California primary a week and a half ago.  The state is aiming at a March 4 deadline

Unless you enjoy watching sausage getting made, you may want to look away:

In Sacramento County, 90,000 ballots remain unprocessed, while 277,000 had been counted as of Wednesday afternoon.

Los Angeles County has 200,000 unprocessed ballots – and that’s not counting the 50,000 presidential votes it discarded because a quarter of the decline-to-state voters improperly marked the county’s ballots.

Statewide, Weir said, most of the uncounted votes – about 600,000 – are absentee ballots turned in on election day. Still to be vetted, he reckons, are 400,000 provisional ballots, which typically are valid about 85 percent of the time.

He estimates 10,000 more uncounted ballots are damaged: shredded in the mail, mutilated in vote-counting machines, or gummed up by sloppy voters who dribbled coffee or ketchup on their absentee ballots. Election workers must pry them open, try to figure out the voter’s intention, and then create a fresh ballot to feed into the machine.

Most likely this doesn’t ultimately have a huge impact overall, and the article notes that Mitt Romney dropped out anyway.  But it begs the question.  As an example, if either the full results were known sooner and Romney had done better or the nomination schedule was a bit slower, would people be dropping out so fast?  The whole vote-and-forget thing seems poised to draw a little attention here.

Regardless, the current state of California’s electoral infrastructure is becoming much more clear in the public eye.  I’ve got no objection to it taking a while to count mountains of absentee votes or even the due diligence involved in checking provisional and DTS ballots.  But it isn’t exactly the simple process people try to make it.

Texa-tics! I’m headed to Austin for the March 4 Primary

We know you loved Nevadatics so much, that I’ll be heading to Austin to do some coverage of the Texas March 4 Primary. So, Texatics here we come! I’ll be headed down on 2/29 to experience all that is the Texas primary.

A funny thing, this is really. I lived in Texas for about 20 years, and I can’t really remember having a competitive primary there. But, I suppose this is the year.

The polling has generally given Senator Clinton a fairly large lead. However, that seems to be changing, with the race tightening. You can see in the graph from Pollster.com that the orange line (Obama) is gaining on the purple line (Clinton) in the last few weeks. To be sure, Clinton has some advantages in the state, but Obama is rapidly gaining. In fact, from Ralph Bordie at IVR polls (who, incidentally has been tremendously helpful on the 50-state Blog Roundups), we see that Obama has moved the spread from 18 down to 10 in about three weeks from 1/10->1/30.  All bets are off if Obama wins Wisconsin big.  

By the way, the polling in Texas has been very scant. So scant, in fact, that Burnt Orange Report commissioned most of the polls that are in the pollster.com graph.

Texas is an open primary, anybody can vote in any primary. In fact, I’m 99% sure from my days when I was a TX precinct chair (Go Fighting 1806!) that there is no party registration. Another thing to note about Texas is they have a very handy early voting system, where you can basically go to your local library or school anytime within a few weeks of the election and vote. It’s all quite convenient. I’m not sure of the early voting rate in Texas, but I imagine it’s slightly lower than our own Vote by mail.

One last thing, it seems much of the leadership of the Democratic Party in Texas is breaking for Obama. Or so I’m told by Matt Glazer.

I’ll be trying to produce regular dispatches from Austin when I’m there, and for between now and then, I highly recommend BOR.

The Drive For 2/3: C’mon CDP, Come Along For The Ride

I am firmly committed to getting a 2/3 majority in both houses of the state Legislature by 2010.  Fabian Nuñez believes that, in the Assembly, we can get halfway there by November.

Speaking at the Sacramento Press Club yesterday, Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez said Democrats should add three seats to their 48-32 majority in the California Assembly in November’s elections.

Nunez made the prediction after new figures from the Secretary of State show a surge in Democratic registrations in all but two Assembly districts, including three held by incumbent Republicans who will be forced to leave office.

They include the desert/Riverside area seat held by Assemblywoman Bonnie Garcia, the San Diego seat of Assemblywoman Shirley Horton, and the Contra Costa/Sacramento Delta seat held by Assemblyman Guy Houston.

These are clearly the three seats to target.  AD-80 (Garcia’s seat) has some excellent candidates on the Democratic side, including Greg Pettis and the Hispanic Barack Obama, Manuel Perez.  We have good candidates in AD-78 (Horton’s old seat) and AD-15 (Houston’s) as well – as those Caliticians in those districts can attest.  Plus, we not only have registration advantages, but the advantage of a game-changing Democratic nominee at the top of the ticket (whether it’s Obama or Clinton) that will bring new Democratic voters to the process.  These three seats are prime opportunities, and there are other Assembly opportunities like Greg Aghazarian’s seat (he’s also termed out), and more in the Senate (Hannah Beth Jackson’s bid in SD-19, the possible Jeff Denham recall, Abel Maldonado’s SD-15).

However, I want to highlight this nugget about the way Assembly and Senate elections are managed in California.

If Democrats field strong candidates for these seats, we could be looking at a pickup of 2/3+ seats.

Each of the marquee races are expected to be $1 million+ contests. The new Assembly Speaker will be responsible for raising funds and overseeing the campaigns.

on the flip…

I’ve talked about this with party leaders several times, and nobody has given me an adequate explanation about this.  In a way, it’s a lot like the DCCC as the House-based campaign arm for national elections.  But I’m struggling to understand why the Speaker (and the President Pro Tem of the Senate) have the sole responsibility of overseeing these elections and creating advertising, GOTV, etc.  It seems to me that the California Democratic Party would be able to do a much better job in these districts, with their membership already on the ground and involved, and with a larger fundraising base to conduct the operations necessary.  Yet for some reason, there is this bifurcation: the CDP deals with statewide races and Congressional seats, and the Assembly and Senate leadership do the legislative races.  Is this just tradition?  Why can’t the CDP play in whatever race they wish?

This problem, or at least what I consider a problem, is compounded by the fact that we will have new leadership in the Assembly and Senate, leadership that may be unused to running multiple campaign operations out of their offices.  I think Darrell Steinberg is a fine man (so does George Skelton) who’s going to do a great job as the Senate leader, but I don’t know how he’s going to do facilitating Hannah Beth Jackson’s race in the Thousand Oaks area.  Furthermore, the new Assembly Speaker won’t be picked for a month, and we have to start on these races right now.  Obviously the Presidential race is going to take up all the oxygen in the fall, so ensuring that the Democratic candidates get their message out and the Republicans in these open seats are defined is crucial.  And right now, for the next month, there’s literally nobody to do that.

(Also, the proliferation of independent expenditure money in this state necessitates some organizational and financial help for legislative candidates that may otherwise just get swamped.)

I can hold judgment on the efficacy of this and bow to those wiser in the ways of California elections if I were given a satisfactory explanation for this structure.  But nobody has done so, and I’ve spoken to a lot of people inside the CDP about this.  I think 2008, in a favorable environment for Democrats, with no statewide races on the ballot at all, and with a badly broken Republican Party in California that is broke and rife with internal squabbling, would be an excellent time to shift this tradition, and for the CDP to exercise some muscle in these legislative districts, helping solid Democrats get elected and moving us ever closer to the desired 2/3 majority that we need to make the real changes necessary to move the state forward.

This is not an accusation, but a dialogue.  I’m looking for ways for my party to be more effective.