Texatics: The Blue Doggiest (Chet Edwards) of them all endorses Obama

Representative Chet Edwards wasn’t supposed to carry that title anymore. He was supposed to be redistricted out of his seat by the Delay redistricting measures. The problem? He beats all comers. His seat is about R+20, yet he keeps winning elections in his Waco, TX based district.

I bring this up because I’ll be heading to Texas next week, so I thought I should bring up some of the information about the race before I get there. Rep. Edwards endorsed Obama at the semi-famous Waco suspension bridge. (Not that I’d knock Waco or anything, but it’s about 1/10th the size of the GG bridge) From his speech:

“As the father of two young sons, I care deeply about the future of our nation, and that is why I am endorsing Sen. Barack Obama for president of the United States,” Edwards said. “I believe Sen. Obama can bring about real change in Washington – change that will make a positive difference for average working Americans struggling to keep up with the high costs of health care, gasoline and education.”…

“As someone who has spent most of my adult life fighting for veterans and for military troops and their families, I am convinced that Sen. Obama will be a champion for better health care, housing and quality of life for those who have sacrificed so much for the American family,” Edwards said. “He knows that standing up for our troops, our veterans and their families is the right thing to do – for them and for our nation’s security.”(Waco Trib 2/18/08)

On the Clinton endorsement front, she’s got the popular African-American leader and Congresswoman Shiela Jackson-Lee. Check out a good review of the superdelegates here.

Finally, check out BOR’s review of the Texas system of doling out delegates. Apparently, Senator Clinton’s staff isn’t a huge fan.

UPDATE (Bob): There’s a new CNN poll inside the margin of error. Following a Town Hall in San Antonio tomorrow afternoon, Obama will be traveling to Houston’s Toyota Center (capacity: 19,300) for his Wisconsin night speech with George Lopez. Early voting begins tomorrow.

Open Thread: will.i.am edition

Sure, you’ve seen the Yes We Can video, but I like the M.c.Cain version.

Environment: Other news of note, it seems SB 908, which would include climate change in the science curriculum, isn’t popular with some Republicans. Science is political, I suppose. Count soon-to-be-recalled Senator Jeff Denham among the skeptics, because Denham knows waaaay more about climate science than the IPCC.

“Some wouldn’t view them as skeptics. Some would view them as the right side of the issue,” said Denham, an Atwater almond farmer who also runs a plastics recycling business.

“We don’t have complete factual information yet,” Denham said. “From what I have seen the Earth has heated and cooled on its own for centuries. I don’t know that there’s anything that is a direct cause of that right now, but we can do a better job of cleaning up our planet.” (SJ Merc 2/15/08)

Double Bubble: Don’t worry about this double bubble, thing, b/c, you know, it’s been happening for years. So, no, big, whoop, right?

Six years ago, Los Angeles County began using a ballot for nonpartisan voters that had a little-noticed design flaw. Confusion over how to mark the ballot, critics say, caused tens of thousands of votes to go uncounted in three elections between 2002 and 2006.

At the time, election officials knew that some votes were not being counted but saw no need to make changes. After all, the missing votes went unnoticed in the three primary elections and no one complained.(LAT 2/18/08)

Openness: Hey, this is an open thread. Have a great President’s Day!

February Update: Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2008

(Another installment of great data. – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

Here is my updated legislature outlook, with the updated registration numbers of the districts where the current incumbents are term-limited. I am using a “Partisan Factor” (PF), which is the average of the margins in registration, Davis-Simon (02G), Kerry-Bush (04P), Boxer-Jones (04S), and Feinstein-Mountjoy (06S). My previous diary is here, the initial discussion we had on the legislature outlook is here, and the updated numbers are below the flip.

ASSEMBLY


Republican-Held Seats (12)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
2
Doug LaMalfa
31.86%
47.28%
R+15.42
3
Rick Keene
33.81%
41.31%
R+7.50
10
Alan Nakanishi
38.19%
41.20%
R+3.01
15
Guy Houston
38.72%
38.82%
R+0.10
26
Greg Aghazarian
41.05%
41.21%
R+0.16
34
Bill Maze
33.23%
46.23%
R+13.00
36
Sharon Runner
36.61%
42.00%
R+5.39
64
John Benoit
33.98%
44.71%
R+10.73
71
Todd Spitzer
26.95%
51.27%
R+24.32
75
George Plescia
29.43%
42.79%
R+13.36
78
Shirley Horton
41.58%
33.10%
D+8.48
80
Bonnie Garcia
45.68%
36.49%
D+9.19
District 2002G
2004P
2004S 2006S Reg. PF
2
R+30.0
R+34.1
R+23.7
R+16.7
R+15.4
R+24.0
3
R+31.5
R+14.7
R+7.3
R+0.2
R+7.5
R+12.2
10
R+16.6
R+14.0
R+0.7
D+6.2
R+3.0
R+5.6
15
R+4.5
D+0.1
D+7.8
D+22.3
R+0.1
D+6.4
26
R+5.7
R+15.6
D+1.0
D+6.3
R+0.2
R+2.8
34
R+26.1
R+33.6
R+20.9
R+12.6
R+13.0
R+21.2
36
R+26.0
R+21.9
R+5.7
D+5.4
R+5.4
R+10.7
64
R+15.3
R+16.6
R+1.6
D+0.7
R+10.7
R+8.7
71
R+33.6
R+30.2
R+19.4
R+14.4
R+24.3
R+24.4
75
R+19.8
R+12.7
R+0.2
D+5.6
R+13.4
R+8.1
78
D+2.4
D+3.2
D+20.4
D+24.2
D+8.5
D+11.7
80
D+8.6
D+5.2
D+19.3
D+22.4
D+9.2
D+12.9


Democratic-Held Seats (11)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
1
Patty Berg
45.18%
28.11%
D+17.07
8
Lois Wolk
46.17%
29.28%
D+16.89
13
Mark Leno
57.08%
9.22%
D+47.86
14
Loni Hancock
59.41%
14.59%
D+44.82
19
Gene Mullin
50.48%
22.18%
D+28.30
22
Sally Lieber
43.91%
23.81%
D+20.10
27
John Laird
48.60%
26.10%
D+22.50
30
Nicole Parra
46.18%
38.40%
D+7.78
40
Lloyd Levine
47.89%
27.75%
D+20.14
46
Fabian Núñez
64.07%
12.00%
D+52.07
52
Mervyn Dymally
68.49%
11.85%
D+56.64
District 2002G
2004P
2004S 2006S Reg. PF
1
D+10.3
D+22.4
D+26.5
D+32.5
D+17.1
D+21.8
8
D+8.8
D+12.5
D+22.8
D+28.8
D+16.9
D+18.0
13
D+53.3
D+72.2
D+73.5
D+72.9
D+47.9
D+64.0
14
D+43.9
D+62.8
D+61.7
D+65.6
D+44.8
D+55.8
19
D+28.4
D+39.8
D+44.8
D+54.4
D+28.3
D+39.1
22
D+26.4
D+36.1
D+40.7
D+48.5
D+20.1
D+34.4
27
D+20.4
D+35.0
D+36.0
D+43.8
D+22.5
D+31.5
30
R+2.6
R+14.7
D+3.8
D+12.9
D+7.8
D+1.4
40
D+11.6
D+21.9
D+35.3
D+33.7
D+20.1
D+24.5
46
D+60.8
D+62.7
D+72.3
D+72.3
D+52.1
D+64.0
52
D+70.0
D+73.5
D+79.4
D+79.9
D+56.6
D+71.9


SENATE


Republican-Held Seats (5)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
15
Abel Maldonado*
40.05%
36.82%
D+3.23
19
Tom McClintock
36.84%
39.93%
R+3.09
29
Bob Margett
32.37%
44.19%
R+11.82
33
Dick Ackerman
27.32%
50.06%
R+22.74
37
Jim Battin
35.14%
44.28%
R+9.14
District 2002G
2004P
2004S 2006S Reg. PF
15
R+2.4
D+6.4
D+11.3
D+20.6
D+3.2
D+7.8
19
R+7.0
R+2.0
D+7.6
D+10.6
R+3.1
D+1.2
29
R+19.9
R+15.2
R+1.7
R+2.2
R+11.8
R+10.2
33
R+31.4
R+27.2
R+14.9
R+11.6
R+22.7
R+21.6
37
R+13.4
R+16.6
R+0.9
D+2.2
R+9.1
R+7.6


Democratic-Held Seats (6)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin
5
Michael Machado
46.32%
32.14%
D+14.18
7
Tom Torlakson
47.16%
30.12%
D+17.04
9
Don Perata
59.52%
13.20%
D+46.32
21
Jack Scott
45.89%
28.18%
D+17.71
23
Sheila Kuehl
50.31%
25.01%
D+25.30
25
Edward Vincent
59.23%
20.16%
D+39.07
District 2002G
2004P
2004S 2006S Reg. PF
5
D+7.7
D+8.4
D+22.2
D+27.6
D+14.2
D+16.0
7
D+14.5
D+22.8
D+27.2
D+39.6
D+17.0
D+24.2
9
D+48.2
D+63.6
D+64.5
D+66.6
D+46.3
D+57.8
21
D+15.0
D+27.8
D+35.9
D+37.0
D+17.7
D+26.7
23
D+22.6
D+31.1
D+40.8
D+45.9
D+25.3
D+33.1
25
D+38.7
D+45.7
D+52.9
D+53.6
D+39.1
D+46.0



Now here is a list of the districts with the most competitive PF’s, ranked from highest to lowest priority.

Assembly

District PF
80
D+12.9
78
D+11.7
15
D+6.4
30
D+1.4
26
R+2.8
10
R+5.6
64
R+8.1
75
R+8.7

Senate

District PF
15
D+7.8
19
D+1.2

California relelgated to being an ATM again

Well, we had our very brief moment in the sun on Feb. 5, but we’re back where we are used to being now: the nation’s political ATM. Tomorrow, the Big Dog makes a swing through the Bay Area for his wife, hoping to pick up a quick mil for her campaign:

Hillary Clinton may be campaigning elsewhere Monday, but her purse is in California. And her husband is carrying it. Bill Clinton will try to fill it with upward of $1 million from three private fundraisers in the Bay Area on Monday, including two at homes in Saratoga and Portola Valley, to try to keep pace with the Barack Obama money machine.

California has always been a cash cow for presidential campaigns, but until now, candidates usually have made an effort to extend a live hand. With California’s Feb. 5 primary but a memory – and the campaigns long moved on to states from Louisiana to Maine and soon on to Ohio and Texas – stand-ins will be the best Californians will get. The campaigns aren’t looking for votes at this point, though. They want money.(SJ Merc 2/17/08)

California Matters, ahem, almost as much as Ohio. Honestly, I don’t think anybody could have predicted that we would go into March, or even April, for the nomination, but here we are, back in the rearview mirror, wondering who our nominee is going to be.

The Obama campaign is hoping to bring somebody along the lines of a former Sen. Bill Bradley, or somebody like that for a fundraiser, but no specifics were given. California will always have a net ouflow of political dollars. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing. It’s just the way it’s going to be until the time comes when California is competitive again. I’m hoping that’s going to be a long time. So, man the ATM watch towers if you must, but let’s just make sure that California stays firmly in the blue column for the foreseeable future.  Thanks.