This past Tuesday, July 1st, marked the day when 46 states begin Fiscal Year 2009 and 29 states and the District of Columbia started facing a combined budget shortfall of $48 billion according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. And because the federal government still hasn’t gotten around to assembling a fiscal package to help the states, many economic dominoes are about to fall.

So what are some of the casualties of the FY 2009 budget balancing?

Tapping out the reserve fund. I wrote about it a month ago and it remains true today; states are being forced to raid their reserve funds. Business Week doesn’t think this is a great idea:

But in many cases they’re tapping out the reserve funds for the coming budgets and might need to make tougher choices when they put together their 2010 spending plans, especially if the economy worsens.

Massive health care costs Many states have been forced to consider slashing health care budgets. The Sacramento Bee paints the picture for California residents if the Governator and the state Senate’s “compromise” on health care is passed:

To save $92 million in the budget, Schwarzenegger wants to reinstate a rule that families on Medi-Cal submit paperwork every three months to prove their eligibility, instead of every 12 months.

About 150,000 children are expected to lose coverage this year – and 470,000 eventually – because their families either fail to file the required forms or they can’t meet the program’s eligibility rules.

School budgets in a state of flux. Highly touted increases in education are in flux as states recognize the true weight of their budget shortfalls. State lawmakers in Illinois increased the minimum spending on each student by $225, but according to the Chicago Daily Herald the Governor may not be able to deliver on this promise:

The governor has already publicly threatened to slash $1.5 billion and order agencies to hold back another $500 million to balance spending unless lawmakers return to Springfield and come up with more money.

This would include a $110 million cut in education spending. Illinois is not alone. Nevada just passed a bill that cuts school textbook spending by $48 million.

More criminals on the street. Sky rocketing gas prices combined with a tightening of the budget belt has led to impossible decisions for law enforcement agencies. Not everyone can simply have officers walk their beats to save money. In places like sprawling El Paso County their only option is leaving more criminals on the streets:

(Sheriff) Maketa initially switched to two deputies per car. Then he forbade idling vehicles. Neither led to big enough savings. This month, he decided to end all patrols to save money, though he predicts his deputies will catch fewer drunken drivers and fewer suspects with outstanding warrants. The department will reassess the end of patrols if it finds there is a serious effect on public safety.

This week will not mark the date of some apocalyptic change in the American way of life. The average American citizen probably didn’t wake up today with more criminals roaming the streets, no health care, and their kids attending a dilapidated run down school. Unless of course they are one of too many Americans who faced these conditions even before the economy began to sink.

Gradually though things will come into focus.I wrote last week that the deeper the economic hole, the more federal spending will be required to help us get out of it. Well today’s the day we start stepping into that $48 billion hole.

Dennis Morris didn’t make the 3896 magic number to get on the general election ballot the old-fashioned write-in way. However, he thinks he has a plan to get on the ballot notwithstanding the lack of the necessary write-ins:

Pismo Beach attorney Dennis Morris believes he’s found a way to still get on tne November ballot as a Democratic opponent for 15th District State Senator Abel Maldonado (R-Santa Maria).

Morris, who previously attempted to get onto the ballot through a write-in vote in the June 3 primary, said he’s found a provision of elections law that may get him there.

Section 8605(c) of the California Elections Code allows a write-in candidate’s name to be placed on the general election ballot if a party’s central committee puts the write-in candidate there to fill a vacancy, and if the candidate appeared as a write-in on the primary ballot, as Morris did.(PolitickerCA 7/1/08)

Bascially, Morris thinks that if he gets all five central committees to appoint him as the candidate, then he has to be put on the ballot.  There is some contrary caselaw, but it seems to run contrary to the state constitution:

“A political party that participated in a primary election shall not be denied the ability to place on the general election ballot the candidate who received, at the primary election, the highest vote among that party’s candidates.”

California Constitution, Article II, Section 5(b).

Stay tuned, this might not be over yet…

The main talking point that, in particular, Dianne Feinstein and Nancy Pelosi have used to claim the necessity of the FISA capitulation is that under this law, the FISA Court will be the “exclusive means” for electronic surveillance.  The bamboozlement here is that FISA, a federal statute, never was the exclusive means before.  Now we have confirmation of this, from a federal judge in California no less.

A federal judge in California said Wednesday that the wiretapping law established by Congress was the “exclusive” means for the president to eavesdrop on Americans, and he rejected the government’s claim that the president’s constitutional authority as commander in chief trumped that law.

The judge, Vaughn R. Walker, the chief judge for the Northern District of California, made his findings in a ruling on a lawsuit brought by an Oregon charity. The group says it has evidence of an illegal wiretap used against it by the National Security Agency under the secret surveillance program established by President Bush after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 […]

But Judge Walker, who was appointed to the bench by former President George Bush, rejected those central claims in his 56-page ruling. He said the rules for surveillance were clearly established by Congress in 1978 under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which requires the government to get a warrant from a secret court.

“Congress appears clearly to have intended to – and did – establish the exclusive means for foreign intelligence activities to be conducted,” the judge wrote. “Whatever power the executive may otherwise have had in this regard, FISA limits the power of the executive branch to conduct such activities and it limits the executive branch’s authority to assert the state secrets privilege in response to challenges to the legality of its foreign intelligence surveillance activities.”

Idiots, idiots, idiots.  In the course of giving away massive new surveillance powers and immunity for lawbreakers, the so-called “chip” that they received in return was already in the law to begin with.  Remember that exclusivity was DiFi’s amendment, and Pelosi said it was “the most important” aspect of any new law.

(By the way, this lawsuit is against the federal government, not the telecoms, so it would continue regardless of the outcome of Tuesday’s vote.)

Or something.

I’m still trying to make heads and tails of Bob Drogin’s narrative in Thursday’s L.A. Times regarding John McCain’s campaign strategy, which seems to be treating the entire country like one giant New Hampshire:

CINCINNATI — When John McCain campaigned here last week, he relied on his signature event, an unscripted town hall meeting, to sway undecided voters in this crucial swing state.

The presumed Republican presidential nominee paced with a microphone at Xavier University, taking questions about energy, the economy and other issues from about 150 people.

Problem is, it doesn’t work.

(see extended…)

First, let’s talk pure logistics.  Running a general election campaign where there is one nationwide election day to focus on is not the same as a primary campaign, where (at the beginning at least) you can do retail politics across states with low population.

McCain’s brand of retail politics may have been effective in Iowa (where, remember, he came in second) and New Hampshire (where he won in a state that has traditionally been sympathetic to him), at which point the Republican nomination had essentially come down to between him and Huckabee when it was shown that Romney was such a disaster that he couldn’t even win in his own backyard.

But in a general election where you have to appeal to hundreds of millions of voters and get them to enthusiastically volunteer for your campaign and turn out all their friends and neighbors to vote for you as well, talking to 150 people in Cincinnati a couple of times a week just won’t cut it.

And that’s even if you’re working on weekends, which McCain just won’t do.

Instead, after workweeks full of fundraisers, town hall meetings and interviews, McCain has been, in campaign parlance, “down” on nearly every Saturday or Sunday for 20 weeks, largely sequestered away from the news media.

He’s usually spending time with family, friends and campaign advisers at residences in Arlington, Va., and Phoenix or vacation homes near Sedona, Ariz., and San Diego.

The problem is, though, that as much as McCain may enjoy bantering back and forth with (and perhaps insulting) participants at town hall meetings, he still can’t do jack to convince voters that he knows what the hell he’s talking about:

But McCain’s hourlong pitch didn’t persuade Rosemary Meinders, a wavering Democrat. His answers were too general, she said. “Honestly, I don’t know what I’m going to do.”

The next day, Janine Koss, a lifelong Republican, also was unconvinced after McCain met about 80 autoworkers at the General Motors Lordstown plant outside Youngstown. “Now I don’t know,” the 31-year-old assembly line worker said. “I really don’t know.”

I’m not really surprised that someone even a Republican would be ambivalent after hearing McCain speak.  After all, he came to California recently and told us that we should open up our beautiful coastline to offshore drilling because it would make us feel good:

“I don’t see an immediate relief, but I do see that exploitation of existing reserves that may exist – and in view of many experts that do exist off our coasts – is also a way that we need to provide relief. Even though it may take some years, the fact that we are exploiting those reserves would have psychological impact that I think is beneficial.”

Bottom line: McCain has a campaign strategy of talking (poorly) to small handfuls of voters a few times a week.

It’s not exactly like he has a choice, though.  What else is he going to do?  Go head-to-head with Obama on the traditional campaign strategy of big rallies and inspiring speeches?  Not even McCain’s rosiest sympathizers believe that’s an option.  As Drogin writes:

Aides and supporters say the freewheeling sessions showcase the Arizona senator as a straight-talking candidate who is an expert on policy issues and ready to be president. It also lets him display a sense of humor that, they admit, is more appealing than his formal speeches, which can sound stilted. Even some GOP leaders have panned his delivery.

Cottage cheese in a lime jello salad, anyone?  You can read the reviews on how it would look if McCain tried to match Obama on speeches.

But the other significant problem with McCain’s fondness for town halls goes beyond the fact that he just can’t close the deal.  In fact, he risks losing the sale altogether.

“He’s very good for TV because there’s often a surprise,” she said. “You’re never sure what he’s going to say next. He moves into uncharted territory more readily than other politicians.”

That worries some supporters. They say McCain’s unstructured sessions often overshadow efforts to communicate a single, clear message each day. Worse, they fear, the routine events now only produce national news when he makes an error. Indeed, McCain has made his worst gaffes during town hall meetings.

As much as Republican strategists may wish to convince themselves that McCain’s “authenticity” (i.e., saying whatever seems convenient, no matter how tactless or insulting) can win him the day, the truth is that–unlike Obama’s rallies that are often the size of small cities–the only serious press that small town halls can generate is…negative press when you make a gaffe.

Before the digital age, this was not such a big deal.  But now that anyone can be a journalist and all it takes is a small handheld camcorder, everything is fair game.  And that’s bad news for John McCain, who likes to go off the cuff as a sign of “authenticity”.

So basically, the Republicans nominated a someone who can’t give a speech worth a damn who loves to do town halls (but can’t do too many and has to keep the schedule light owing to his age and stamina) and who gives inconsistent policy positions at the town halls that make message discipline impossible and who makes frequent gaffes during them.

And all that, simply because Republican primary voters couldn’t find anyone less unpalatable.  Well played, GOP.

McCain has essentially turned himself not into a candidate, but into a walking POW war hero narrative whose relevance for the qualifications of the Presidency is not allowed to be questioned, all for a lack of consistency on any other issue.

I, for one, am certainly not losing any sleep over seeing that inviolate automatic qualification brought into question.  If it’s all they have, why not try to take it away?

Just as presidential hopeful Barack Obama left California this past weekend, news is circulating about a new headline grabbing statement he made to a small group of people in San Francisco.  This time, conservatives are going mad because Obama told a Lesbian Gay Bisexual Transgender group that he opposes Prop. 8, a discriminatory ballot measure that would prohibit marriage equality via constitutional amendment.

Good for Obama, and good for California.  His opponent on the other hand, is playing so many sides of the fence, it’s hard to keep track.  Since when did it become so acceptable to flip flop your positions in the manner John McCain appears to do with so much comfort and ease.

McCain even goes so far as accusing Obama of flip-flopping in an effort to mask his own very real lack of integrity on the issue.

Follow this bias-filled Fox News article:

• “I am proud to join with and support the LGBT community in an effort to set our nation on a course that recognizes LGBT Americans with full equality under the law,” reads the Obama letter, available on the Alice B. Toklas LGBT Democratic Club Web site.

  Obama said he supports “extending fully equal rights and benefits to same sex couples under both state and federal law,” and called the measure a “divisive and discriminatory” effort to amend California’s constitution.

  In response, John McCain’s campaign told The Sacramento Bee that Obama is guilty of flip-flopping, saying his support for the measure contradicts an earlier statement in which the Democratic candidate said it should be left to the states to decide their marriage policies.

Let’s see, Obama is merely supporting the position of a soon-to-be-revealed majority of California voters at least, who support the constitution and equal rights to marry therein.  On November 4th, the state voters will decide.  Therefore, McCain is dead wrong about Obama on this point and further investigation reveals that McCain himself is guilty of this precise claim.

Case in point.  In 1996, McCain voted in favor of the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, which declares that the federal government will not recognize same sex marriage and that states are not compelled to recognize such marriages that may be legal in other states.

That act federally undermines a legal marriage in California, wherein its state constitution, ratified and upheld by its people and sovereignty uphold the grant equal rights to marry.

Today, McCain prefers to allow each state to decide its own marriage laws, as California has done and will do on November 4th when Prop 8 is defeated.  Problem is, the McCain supported Defense of Marriage Act voids certain marriages at the federal level, abridging the right of a state to make its own decision.

On the issue of marriage equality, McCain goes from American hero to political hypocrite.  

Via Matt Yglesias and Atrios, the city of Sebastopol is thinking about supporting increased density in their upcoming development plans.

The Sebastopol City Council kicked off deliberations of a controversial redevelopment plan Tuesday with a majority of members voicing support for higher-density buildings as the most environmentally sound approach.

“Density is what makes transit feasible, giving us the option of getting out of our cars,” said Councilman Larry Robinson […]

The redevelopment plan would allow 300 residential units and nearly 400,000 square feet of new business and civic space between the Laguna de Santa Rosa and downtown.

Supporters have said the plan encourages the most environmentally sound method of development and would help add economic vitality to the city.

This approach is not without critics.  There remain those who consider tall buildings an urban blight, think that all development comes with traffic woes and want to maintain local “character” when talking about growth.

The point here is that we have to start to re-orient to a different kind of lifestyle.  If basic necessities are within walking distance and a strong transit spoke can build out from denser development, the traffic problems are eliminated, the quality of life goes up, and people can get around and get to work without the need for their cars.  Santa Monica is a pretty dense city, with several points of interest and commercial shops within walking distance and a strong bus system.  It’s not Manhattan and it doesn’t have to be.  But there’s less of a reliance on the automobile, and ultimately reducing that reliance is the key to making us energy secure.

The alternative is areas like the Inland Empire, where runaway sprawl and persistent construction of single-family homes is not only unsustainable, it’s unaffordable, as the mortgage crisis and soaring energy costs turn these developments into ghost towns.  With 200 dollar-a-barrel oil on the horizon, urban planning simply cannot retain the status quo and expect to survive.  There isn’t one complete answer here – telecommuting and Internet delivery, increased mass transit (I can’t wait for my subway to the sea), and density will all play a role.  But we cannot sacrifice any of those options in the name of NIMBYism.