• Stay For Change! We’ve got information posted for the AD-15 (Buchanan) and AD-30 (F. Florez) GOTV 4-day plan.  There’s a lot of GOTV-ing work to do. We’ll work to get additional information ASAP.  If you would like to go to a different district, check out the Stay for Change Action post.

• I’ll remind you about this on Monday, but if you’re looking for some election day activities in LA, how about this phonebank at USC?

• The Palo Alto Police Chief is in hot water after ‘she instructed officers to stop African-Americans and “find out who they are.”‘ Classy, but she meant something else entirely, I’m sure.

• On the national front, our “post-partisan” governor called Barack Obama “scrawny.” Apparently he loved the whole girly-man blowback so much, he thought he’d give it another shot. For reals:

“We’re going to make him do some squats, and then we’re going to give him some bicep curls to beef up those scrawny little arms, but if you only could do something about putting some meat on his ideas,” he said. “Sen. McCain on the other hand is built like a rock,” Schwarzenegger joked.

Schwarzenegger questioned Obama’s readiness to be president, noting that McCain “served this country longer in a POW camp than his opponent has served in the United States Senate,” he said, as the crowd roared with approval. “Ladies and gentlemen, I only play an action hero in my movies, but John McCain is a real action hero.” (LA Times10/31)

Yes, apparently the same cliches he’s been using in California haven’t gone out of style in Ohio yet.

Congratulations to Debra Bowen.  Under her leadership, a record 17.3 million Californians are registered to vote in the November election.  That is 74.56% of total eligible voters, which isn’t too bad.  Bowen released the statistics today, and there are lots of interesting numbers in there.

Here are the county stats.  Democrats have a 2.25 million voter lead on Republicans, and represent 44.40% of the electorate, as opposed to 31.37% for the Yacht Party.  Riverside and Imperial Counties are still below the average for eligible voters (both around 65%), but well up from earlier in the year, a great boon for Manuel Perez’ efforts.  Orange County is among the best for percentage of eligible voters registered, with 86%.  Democrats have taken control in San Bernardino County, with a 10,000-vote lead.  And in San Diego County, the spread is an incredible 400 votes (539,560 for Democrats, 539,939 for Republicans).

Let’s go to the Congressional stats.

CA-03: Republicans outnumber Democrats now by just 9,000 votes, a difference of only 2.19%.  If Bill Durston doesn’t pull off the win, this is the #1 targeted seat for 2010.

CA-04: Still a hefty lead for registered Republicans, 45.94% to 31.06%.

CA-11: Registered Republicans still outnumber registered Dems here, but by only 3,800 votes (about 1%).

CA-26: Now a 20,000 vote spread (around 5.5% lead for Republicans).

CA-45: Republicans outnumber Democrats by 16,000 votes (4.6%).  This seat also needs to be targeted heavily now and in the future.  

CA-46: 31.91% for Democrats, 44.07% for Republicans.

CA-50: 31.35% for Dems, 40.55% for Republicans.

Here’s the Assembly.

AD-10: Literally 100 votes separate Democrats and Republicans here.  But you know, it’s hopelessly gerrymandered.

AD-15: Democrats have 12,000 more votes than Republicans (3.5%).

AD-26: Democrats outnumber Republicans by 5,000 votes (2.4%).

AD-30: A 13,000 vote lead for Democrats.

AD-36: Again, 100 votes separate Democrats and Republicans.  I didn’t realize it was this close.  Linda Jones has a real shot.

AD-37: Republicans have the advantage by 16,000 votes (around 6%).

AD-38: Republicans have a 9,000 vote advantage.

AD-63: That’s only an 8,000 vote lead for Republicans.

AD-78: Democrats have fully 26,000 more registered voters than Republicans (a lead of 11%).

AD-80: It’s a 15,000 vote lead here, 44.99% to 37.17%.

Six seats flipping, given the expected big turnout, is definitely a possibility.

The State Senate shows gains in SD-12 (47.33% Democratic, 33.41% Republican), SD-15 (40.86% Democratic, 34.82% Republican) and SD-19, where Democrats hold the registration advantage by a thin 1,058 votes.  2/3 is within reach by 2010.

In 2006 I contributed to a project originated by Chris Bowers called Use It or Lose It. It came back in lower profile again this year, but it’s a good habit to get into up and down the political spectrum every election cycle. The premise is that our elected Democrats- when safe or unchallenged for re-election, should be dipping into their campaign cash reserves to bolster our chances in competitive races. It’s been particularly relevant these two most recent election cycles because of the myriad pickup opportunities across the country and across the state.

Dave in particular has been hammering around these Calitics parts for a long time on the need to target a 2/3 majority in the state legislature if we’re ever going to pass a reasonable budget or pass a legitimately progressive budget (Democrat does not necessarily equal progressive I realize). So how have our state Dems been doing when it comes to spreading the wealth? We all know that incumbency is a powerful force in this state, so generally sitting on a lot of cash can’t be explained by anticipating a re-election fight. A quick chart of the notable and the affluent Democratic state legislators submitted without further comment. You can make your own analysis and comparisons, though there are certainly some aspirants to leadership here: