Tag Archives: Hannah-Beth Jackson

SD-19: Conservadem Hodge lies to media, lies again to cover lies

I’m sure we all remember Jason Hodge, the conservadem being supported by big business interests desperate to have a Senator in the 19th State Senate District who will be more pliant than the progressive Hannah-Beth Jackson. Clearly, undermining your own party by campaigning as “the Democrat who doesn’t think you need higher taxes” will convey that impression.

Well, Hodge is still campaigning as a Democrat. And in an effort to bolster in Democratic bona fides, he told Timm Herdt, the political correspondent at the Ventura County Star, that he had been a Democrat all his life. Problem? He was lying:

A couple of weeks ago in an interview, 19th Senate District candidate Jason Hodge told me he’d been a Democrat “all my life,” and I quoted him as saying so. County Democratic Central Committee vice-chairman David Atkins checked out the claim at the county registrar of voters’ office and asserts it’s untrue.

In fact, Hodge was from 2002 until 2008 registered as “decline to state” a party affiliation.

Hodge acknowledged that today — but asserted that doesn’t mean he hasn’t always been a Democrat in his heart. For example, he said that in primary elections he has always requested a Democratic ballot. A person can be a Democrat, he said, but the voter registration cards give a people an option whether to state or decline to publicly state their party orientation. He chose to decline, he said.

Let’s start the simple fact that Hodge’s explanation is a pile of crap. Before Prop 14 took effect, voters had the option to register with a political party, or as a “decline-to-state” voter–in other words, not to register as a member of any party. Decline-to-state doesn’t mean that you’re really registered as a member of a political party, but you just choose not to share that information with the public.

Even worse? Hodge is lying to cover up his lie. He claimed that he has always requested a Democratic ballot. Problem? That’s also not true. Here is Hodge’s voter registration history, straight from the Ventura County Registrar of Voters (edited to remove his address for privacy reasons):

Notice the entry for the June 2006 gubernatorial, where it says quite clearly that Hodge pulled a non-partisan ballot. If you recall, there was a hotly contested Democratic primary for the right to challenge Arnold Schwarzenegger that year. And apparently, despite being a “Democrat in his heart,” Hodge didn’t have enough of a Democratic heart to vote for either one.

Here’s a piece of advice for Hodge. If you’re going to be a business-friendly centrist, then be a business-friendly centrist, be honest about it, and campaign that way. But don’t try to become a Democrat out of convenience when you decide it’s the best way to suit your political aspirations, and then try to lie to us about it, and then lie again to cover up those lies. People like us who actually have been Democrats all our lives might get a little upset.

Jason Hodge: a Republican in Democrat’s Clothing

Remember Jason Hodge, the corporate-backed Democrat running for California’s 19th Senate District who “doesn’t think you need higher taxes”, running against progressive Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson?

Well, I just got a nice big glossy mailer from an organization called the California Senior Advocates League, saying that Jason Hodge would be the Democrat most capable of defeating the Republicans and calling Hannah-Beth Jackson the derogatory nickname “Taxin’ Jackson.” What is the California Senior Advocates League? Well, it’s a group that only seems to exist come election time. It runs a now-defunct blog called the Silver Dog Blog, whose latest post trashes the Affordable Care Act. And its funders? Mostly the San Diego and California Republican Parties, big oil and pharmaceutical interests. Most recently it received $20,000 from something called JobsPAC. And who funds JobsPAC? Mostly Philip Morris, Chevron, Anheuser-Busch, Anthem Blue Cross, PG&E and a host of similar companies and institutions.

For what it’s worth, the “California Senior Advocates League” doesn’t appear to have made the necessary legal filing disclosures to the state, but they have made sure that flashy campaign mailers supporting their favorite “Democrat” Jason Hodge make it to left-leaning voters’ mailboxes right before vote-by-mail ballots get there in a few days. There has been no condemnation or mention of the mailer from the Hodge campaign. Keep in mind that this big-money front group didn’t just send out a piece to attack Hannah-Beth Jackson. They sent out a piece to promote Jason Hodge. Since the registration numbers dictate that a Democrat will almost certainly win the seat regardless, the big money boys know where their bread is buttered, and it’s with Mr. Hodge. After all, why fight an uphill battle to elect a Republican when you can elect a Republican in sheep’s clothing instead?

The Hannah-Beth Jackson campaign has responded:


“I’m not surprised that the oil and tobacco companies are behind the mailers attacking me,” Jackson said. “After all, I’m supported by the Sierra Club and the Consumer Federation of California. And look at my voting record – I always stood with consumers, working middle class families and the environment. I successfully banned oil tankers and barges from our coast, and have worked against oil company price gouging.”

Today is also when Fortune Magazine reported its new Fortune 500 with three of the four biggest corporations in the nation being oil companies, including Chevron.

“These oil and tobacco corporations think they are above the law,” noted Jackson. “It’s not enough that they launder their money through fake organizations, claiming to represent the interests of seniors. They have failed to report their expenditures against me, even though they were required by law to report the tens of thousands of dollars in postage that they paid last week for the mailers delivered to households today. I’m sure we’ll be seeing their reports now that we’ve exposed them as lawbreakers,” Jackson concluded.

This is why it’s so crucial to be involved in making the Democratic Party more progressive. No matter how one feels about what is going on in the White House, there are innumerable battles just like this one happening all across America. Battles where progressive Democrats are up against corporate-backed “Democrats” seeking to make the Party just that much more conservative and friendly to big business interests. These are fights we cannot afford to lose.

Cross-posted from Digby’s Hullabaloo

CA-35 Update

One of the many flaws of California’s term limits law is that it creates needless conflict and enmity between would-be allies each vying to do their part to make the State a better place, as each candidate is forced to abandon a job they have just barely learned, to campaign for a different job.  Conflicts arise in this perpetual game of musical chairs, accountability is minimal, and activists are left in a jam deciding whom to support.

Nowhere is this more apparent than in AD-35, where Assemblymember Pedro Nava has been termed out, forcing a run at the Attorney General job.  The power vacuum left by Nava’s absence has opened the field for two impressive candidates, both of whom are well-liked in the district: Susan Jordan, Mr. Nava’s wife and co-founder of the California Coastal Protection Network (CCPN) and Vote The Coast, and Das Williams, Santa Barbara City Councilman and longtime community activist through CAUSE as their legislative analyst.  Williams also serves as a national board member of the National Organization for Women, and is on the Peabody Charter School Board.

The Republican banner will be carried by former Santa Barbara County Supervisor Mike Stoker.  However, given the 20-point voter registration advantage favoring Democrats in the district, the winner of the Democratic primary is almost certain to hold this safe Democratic seat.

Most activists here in the Ventura and Santa Barbara areas know each of these individuals well, and have worked with them on multiple issues.  As the race intensifies, it is painful for many to make a choice between them, and many have avoided doing so to date.  I personally have endorsed Mr. Williams, having worked with him on a number of different issues here already in less than a year of local activism, while my contact with Ms. Jordan has been more limited.  Each candidate has amassed a long list of endorsers (in-fighting remains about who exactly has endorsed whom at this point, adding to the confusion), and a large number remain on the fence.  Ms. Jordan’s biggest ally, obviously, is Assemblymember Nava; Mr. Williams, however, counters with the almost equally hard-hitting support of Hannah-Beth Jackson, whom he served as Chief of Staff in the SD-19 2008 election.

On a personal level, there is already significant rancor between the two sides: while both have promised a positive campaign, and neither candidate has made overt attacks on the other, various operatives have been busy attempting to earn support with some negative charges.  Williams is extremely active in the community and had expected to be next in line for the spot; his backers have hinted at nepotism between Nava and Jordan; Jordan backers paint Das as overly ambitious and opportunistic because Williams previously ran unsuccessfully for Supervisor, because of his comparative youth at 34 years of age, and because many say that Williams had told them earlier in the year that he would not run for the seat.  Williams is in his second term on the Santa Barbara City Council, and will be termed out–needlessly adding increased stakes under the guise of “reform” through term limits.

Also an issue in the race is the vaunted PXP drilling at Tranquillon Ridge: during the early days of the proposed deal, Williams backed a variety of local environmental organizations in supporting the deal.  Jordan and Nava were opposed, due to precedent and the belief, later reinforced by various agencies, that the deal’s sunset provision would be unenforceable.  The deal eventually became the famous statewide issue it is today, and it is sure to be a major attack avenue against Mr. Williams by Ms. Jordan.

To date, the race is playing out similar to the Clinton-Obama primary war in a battle between youth/change and experience/responsibility–but with an added wrinkle.  While Mr. Williams is young, he also boasts greater experience in elected office, particularly in the field of balancing budgets, an issue particularly crucial to Assembly candidates.  Mr. Williams has repeatedly referenced Santa Barbara’s continued balanced budgets as proof of his ability to make difficult budget choices in a progressive fashion in a tough economic environment, and contrasted his record in Santa Barbara with that of the legislature in Sacramento (somewhat unfairly, as the SB city council is not hamstrung by a 2/3 rule).  Ms. Jordan, meanwhile, will be running ostensibly (and probably unfairly) to the left of Mr. Williams on environmental issues, will be leveraging her longstanding statewide activism, and will portray herself as something of an outsider to the political process despite her connection with Mr. Nava, while attempting to frame Mr. Williams as a career politician.

It is in this somewhat unpleasant context that the Williams campaign released their surprisingly strong fundraising numbers yesterday evening (the Jordan campaign released its own press release this afternoon.)  While it was expected that Ms. Jordan would outraise Mr. Williams due to greater large-scale institutional support and an earlier head start (including a high-profile fundraiser at the home of Pierce Brosnan), the campaigns are essentially even in terms of fundraising, with each campaign spinning the numbers as coming out in their favor: the Williams campaign is emphasizing Jordan’s $12,000 loan to her own campaign to even up the numbers, while the Jordan campaign is emphasizing its $10,000 advantage in cash on hand.

The full text of the competing press releases follows below the fold:

Local Santa Barbara City Councilman Das Williams Outraises Main Opponent In Campaign for Assembly District 35

Santa Barbara, CA – Showing that local residents are looking for a new kind of elected leader in Sacramento, local Santa Barbara City Councilman Das Williams today reports having raised over $120,000 in his campaign for Assembly District 35 as of the June 30th reporting deadline.  In significantly less time, Das Williams outraised his main opponent Susan Jordan – wife of the District’s current Assemblymember Pedro Nava – who raised $110,000.

Das’ strong financial showing complements his already strong grassroots network and growing list of local endorsers and supporters.  

“Das Williams raised more money than Susan Jordan in just half the time,” said campaign spokesperson Josh Pulliam.  “Loaded with a $12,500 personal loan and strapped with unpaid debt, Susan Jordan’s financial report comes straight out of the same Sacramento playbook that brought us a historic budget crisis.  These financial reports illustrate that voters in the district are ready for change.   As a local councilmember, Das already represents nearly a quarter of the Assembly District, and today’s numbers prove that he’s going to have the necessary resources to mount a successful campaign.”

Das Williams is campaigning to succeed termed-out Assemblymember Pedro Nava.  

Das Williams grew up on the Central Coast and is a product of local public schools. In 2003, Das Williams became the youngest person ever to be elected to the Santa Barbara City Council, and was re-elected in 2007. Das has worked as a teacher, a policy aide for former Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson, and a community organizer working to stop the development of a Wal-Mart in Ventura and enact local living wage laws in Santa Barbara and Ventura. Das serves on the Peabody Charter School Board and is a national board member of the National Organization for Women (NOW). Das received his undergraduate degree from the University of California at Berkeley and holds a graduate degree in Environmental Science & Management from the University of California at Santa Barbara.

Jordan Shows Strong Support for Assembly District 35 Race

“Never before has it been so important that we make fundamental changes to the way of doing business in Sacramento. The voters know that fixing the problems won’t be easy, and it will take someone with experience, integrity and determination to stand up to the special interests,” said Assembly candidate Susan Jordan.  “The people in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties who encouraged me to run have backed up their encouragement with campaign contributions. In my first run for elective office, I am inspired by their early show of support.”

Jordan leads fundraising for the primary election, which will be held June 8, 2010, with an impressive $124,129 raised between January 1 and June 30.  Jordan notes that she is very fiscally conservative, spent little during that period, and has $119,228.07 cash on hand.

Jordan added, “I am deeply honored to have the help of so many local and statewide leaders who have placed their trust in my abilities to get the job done, including Santa Barbara County Supervisor Janet Wolf, Oxnard Mayor Tom Holden, Oxnard City Council members Bryan MacDonald and Dr. Irene Pinkard, Former State Senator Sheila Kuehl, Former Santa Barbara County Supervisor Susan Rose, Former Santa Barbara Mayor Harriet Miller, and many more.”

Jordan is an award-winning environmental leader, a successful business woman, health advocate and mother with 15 years of experience working to protect the coastline of Santa Barbara and Ventura counties – and for all of California.  As a former Chair of the Santa Barbara County Planning Commission, Jordan tackled regional planning concerns with an analytical and balanced approach.  After leaving her business career, Jordan founded the California Coastal Protection Network (CCPN) in 1999 and serves as its executive director.  CCPN is considered one of the most effective environmental advocacy organizations in the state and Jordan has received numerous awards for her precedent-setting work.

Jordan is being challenged by Das Williams.  Williams initially supported Jordan, and stated in the Santa Barbara Independent that he would not run and that his own personal ambitions would have to take a back seat for the “greater good of the community,” while praising Jordan’s environmental credentials and statewide connections.  Williams and Jordan split largely over the issue of offshore oil drilling, with Williams supporting a proposal to open the coast to new drilling, while Jordan opposed it.  Jordan is leading a statewide coalition of more than 60 groups who oppose the governor’s efforts to approve the first new offshore oil lease in state waters in 40 years.

“As I walk this district, people tell me that they want someone in Sacramento who has life experience and can be trusted to stand up to special interests and address the serious challenges facing our state, our economy and our livelihoods.  This is a responsibility I take to heart. I will not let them down,” said Jordan.

Susan Jordan for Assembly 2010

Ending cash    $119,228.07

Das Williams for Assembly 2010

Ending cash    $108,767.62

Susan Jordan for Assembly 2010

Reporting period    01/01/2009 – 06/30/2009

Contributions from this period    $124,129.00

Expenditures from this period    $11,006.82

Ending cash    $119,228.07

Das Williams for Assembly 2010

Reporting period    01/01/2009 – 06/30/2009

Contributions from this period    $122,656.08

Expenditures from this period    $13,988.46

Ending cash    $108,767.62

Republican challenger Mike Stoker has not filed any reports.

Given the heated nature of the releases even at this early stage, this will an interesting race to watch going forward.

Don Perata Gives a $1.5 Million Middle Finger to California

In a stunning but not too surprising revelation, Josh Richman of the Oakland Tribune is reporting that Don Perata transferred $1.5 million from his PAC to his legal defense fund – one day after the election. Instead of using that money to help defeat Prop 11, which narrowly won, or to help elect more Democrats to the state senate – such as Hannah-Beth Jackson, who lost by 1,200 votes – he took it for himself, leaving California Democrats and the state itself worse off.

Contributors to Don Perata’s political action committee this year might have thought their money would bankroll the attempted recall of state Sen. Jeff Denham or opposition to a legislative redistricting reform measure.

But one day after Election Day and with only a few weeks left as state Senate President Pro Tem, the Oakland Democrat moved $1.5 million from Leadership California into his own legal defense fund, formed to counter a years-long FBI corruption probe.

This sum dwarfs the California Democratic Party’s $450,000 contribution to Perata’s legal fund over the past year, which had caused an outcry from some party activists. It also dwarfs the $555,000 Perata had moved from his Taxpayers for Perata committee – ostensibly created for a 2010 Board of Equalization run – into his legal defense fund in several chunks since 2005.

The transferred amount is more than the entire $1.4 million the committee had raised in this year’s first nine months, and more than half of the $2.7 million it had on hand as of Sept. 30.

Jason Kinney, Perata’s spokesman, is quoted as saying there was nothing illegal here. Even if that is true, it’s beside the point – $1.5 million is a huge sum of money that should have been spent on winning the 2008 election, not pocketed by a termed-out legislator.

Our own David Dayen is quoted in the article making that very point with forceful eloquence:

David Dayen, an elected Democratic State Central Committee member from Santa Monica, blogged angrily this summer about his party’s contribution to Perata’s legal defense fund, contending the money would’ve been better spent on legislative races. The same goes for Leadership California’s money, he said Wednesday; despite a Democratic presidential candidate carrying California by the largest margin since 1936, Democrats netted only three more Assembly seats and none in the state Senate.

“Every time I asked the California Democratic Party about getting more active and involved in local elections, they said the state Senate and the Assembly control those races … and we don’t have a lot of flexibility. So Perata, at that time, and Nunez or Bass had the authority to run those elections,” Dayen said. “Now we see what happens when you vest power in these closed loops – suddenly self-interest becomes more important than the good of the party.”

He believes this is why Perata didn’t step aside as Pro Tem earlier, as Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez relinquished his post to Karen Bass in May: “Darrell Steinberg was sitting there ready to go … and we were all like, ‘What the hell is going on?’

“We speculated it had to be that he still needed the leverage to make the calls to raise money for himself.”

David makes a key point here – this is not just about how Perata screwed California Democrats. It’s about what he called “closed loops” and a party leadership hostile to open accounting. This should become a rallying cry for all Democrats to demand more accountability from their leaders, and a greater commitment to winning elections as opposed to pocketing those funds for your own uses.

Many in the Democratic grassroots, including a large number of CDP delegates, want to build a better, more successful party, using the disappointing results on the state level as a motivating force to produce change. That is made easier by Perata’s long overdue exit from the Legislature. But this should serve as a wake-up call for the CDP as a whole, which must take a strong stand against this kind of action and take whatever steps are within their power to prevent it from happening again.

Hannah-Beth Jackson Concedes; Tony Strickland Watch Begins

The protracted count is finally over, and it appears that Hannah-Beth Jackson’s outsize effort to defeat Phony Tony Strickland has come up just short.  With only a few hundred ballots left to count, Strickland currently maintains a 903 vote lead out of 414,587 ballots cast.  That margin is .2%: well within the margin necessary for a mandatory recount request by the Jackson campaign.  Unfortunately, as the pro-Strickland blog Policy Report correctly notes, such a recount effort would almost certainly be insufficient to net Hannah-Beth the votes she would need to overtake Strickland’s lead, even were the final votes to close the gap to 700 or 800:

According to some experts, a recount of all 400,000+ ballots might yield a variance of 150 votes in one direction or the other at great cost.  Gaining 800 votes in an election of this size is next to impossible.

Hannah-Beth has done the gracious thing and conceded the race:

With the latest totals showing Strickland hanging on to the lead by a little over 900 votes, Jackson said a victory was not mathematically possible.

“I’m disappointed, but I think that it’s pretty clear at this point in time, we’re not going to be able to catch up,” she said.

Strickland is due to be sworn in Monday in Sacramento. He will represent voters in most of Ventura and Santa Barbara counties as well as the northwest corner of Los Angeles County, including Santa Clarita and Stevenson Ranch.

The outcome has been in doubt since the Nov. 4 election, but by Wednesday both candidates agreed that Strickland had won.

Congratulations to Hannah-Beth Jackson and all her volunteers, supporters and staff who ran a courageous campaign against a less than honorable opponent, giving it everything they had to deliver quality representation to the people in SD-19.

This marks the end of two long and arduous races eked out by narrow margins in Ventura County by both Tony and Audra Strickland, who will be attempting to consolidate their power base.  Unfortunately for them, however, their electoral future does not look bright.  It was Ventura County that gave Strickland his victory, but that result is a relic of a Ventura whose demographics and electoral distribution are rapidly changing.   By 2012, there is little doubt that Ventura’s Democratic Majority will deliver a majority of votes for the Democrat.  As I said before, there are three chief reasons for this:

The first is that Ventura County flipped from red to blue earlier this year in terms of voter registrations–and those numbers have shifted even farther in our direction since. This is not just due to discontent with Bush and the Obama Effect: emigres from Los Angeles are swelling Ventura County’s ranks as more and more Angelenos come to appreciate this oft-overlooked area’s natural advantages. The path to victory for Republicans like Tony Strickland is only going to get steeper from here.

Second, Obama’s first term will likely end up going smoothly with good approval ratings, or very poorly with low approval ratings. Given the precarious, sour and moody state of the nation, we’re unlikely to see an apathetic, middling result. As a consequence, the next presidential election is unlikely to be a close contest one way or another. Our poor experiences in California this year will likely have taught us that we need to Stay for Change–especially if a Democratic Governor is elected in 2010, putting GOP legislators as the biggest remaining obstacle to real change in California.

But Tony’s third and biggest problem is that as an incumbent he will have 4-year voting record in the State Senate. Tony’s campaign this year was built entirely on lies; so much so, in fact, that I can say with all sincerity that he ran the most dishonest campaign I’ve personally had the misfortune of seeing up close. He will no longer be able to run as an “independent”, as all his yard signs and mailers deceitfully claimed. He will no longer be able to claim “green” credentials by posing as an alternative energy entrepreneur. He will simply be the incumbent: the Republican incumbent, and with a track record to boot.

So assuming that demography is destiny and the remaining ballots sort themselves out as poorly as we expect, it’s not the end of the road, but merely the beginning. The Stricklands will have earned themselves 2 to 4 years of respite through dishonest campaigning. More Democratic voters, increased intensity, and an unequivocal track record will see them on their way out of Sacramento in a few short years.

But we can’t do it without your help.  Today we begin Strickland Watch: it will be our duty to shadow every move and every vote Tony and Audra Strickland make in Sacramento.  So far, the Stricklands have made their careers by pretending to be something other than the hard right, corporate sockpuppets they are.  The only antidote to such poison is sunlight and exposure, and a full accounting of every single vote and dollar taken by each of them over the course of the next two to four years.

For his part, Tony Strickland is mouthing the right words:

“We need to definitely do whatever we can to reach across party lines to fix the problems of the state,” he said.

Unfortunately, we’ve heard this from Strickland before.  How he and his wife actually vote is another matter.  If their history is any indication, their bipartisan rhetoric will be belied by a hardline ideological stance.  Democrats in Ventura County-myself included–did an inadequate job of informing  our friends, neighbors and community of the Stricklands’ extremist record.  It’s up to us to make sure that doesn’t happen again, and to deliver to Ventura County the competent, progressive representation it has long deserved and been waiting for.

Also at Ventura County Democrats

AD-10: Alyson Huber Takes a 531 Vote Lead

PhotobucketWell, this has been a tight race for a long time, but at this point I think there have been quite a few people that were writing this off. Well, as of 7:06 this evening, Alyson Huber holds a lead of 531 votes.  That’s about .3% for you folks looking to see if we’ll get to the .5% automatic recount. If this holds up, the Central Valley will have themselves a fine Assemblywoman next week.

You can find this info at the SoS’s “close election” page. On the disappointing side, Hannah-Beth Jackson remains 1717 votes behind and Charlie Brown is 1578 votes back.

UPDATE: AD-10, Meet your new Assemblywoman, Alyson Huber.  I’ve heard from somebody close to the Speaker that there are relatively few votes remaining.  Alyson Huber will be sworn into the Assembly next week.

Strickland’s Lead Cut in Half

(good part about this is that we’re under the mandatory recount window of .5% right now. – promoted by Dante Atkins (hekebolos))

There’s good news and bad news, and then some possibly good news again, and then some possibly bad news again.  The good news: latest vote counts have cut Strickland’s lead in half, down to just under 1,300 votes.  The bad news: the votes out of Santa Barbara County, Jackson’s strongest base, are pretty much all counted.  It’s all up to the provisionals coming out of Ventura County now; if they trend Strickland as the rest of Ventura’s votes have–or even just 50-50–Strickland will eke this one out.

The possibly good news: provisional ballots are usually new voters, and those are quite likely new Democratic voters who might be expected to trend our way contra the overall County trend.  The possibly bad news: those new Democratic voters often have a tendency to vote for the top of the ticket only, failing to vote for Democrats downballot.

What will end up happening?  It’s anybody’s guess.  The VC Star has more:

Elections officials in Ventura County began processing provisional ballots this week but are not expected to release the first results from those ballots until Monday.

In votes tallied thus far, Strickland has about a 5 percentage lead in the Ventura County portion of the district. Jackson would have to at least reverse that advantage among provisional ballots – perhaps unlikely, but something political observers say is possible given that many such ballots are cast by newly registered voters, who this year were predominantly Democrats.

With 401,864 votes now tabulated, Strickland leads by about one-third of a percentage point.

Looks like we’re in a for ride.  As painful as the wait is, though, it’s good to know that the democratic process is being respected.  Better to get the right result with a wait, than the wrong result too quickly.

CA-04: Down To 329 Votes…UPDATE: Back Up To 1,793

Huge news in the continued counting of Charlie Brown’s race against Tom McClintock.  The latest round of counting has Brown within 329 votes as the provisionals, which tend to favor Democrats, get counted in the larger counties in the district.

Charlie Brown (Dem)    170,168    49.9%

Tom McClintock (Rep)    170,497    50.1%

There are still tens of thousands of votes left to count, and there’s a virtual assurance of at least a partial recount.  Tom McClintock has been sending his list these smug reports of the day’s counting, telling them how everything’s looking great.  I haven’t seen an update from him in a couple days.  Probably because this is shaping up as a replay of the 2002 State Controller race, when the late provisionals put Steve Westly over the top in his race against… Tom McClintock.

Extended races like this cost money to maintain staff and pay lawyers.  You can help Charlie out at the Calitics ActBlue page.

…meanwhile, Hannah-Beth Jackson is moving closer in SD-19.  That race is down to 1,283 votes.

…I guess a slew of votes came in from Placer County and widened McClintock’s lead in a big way.

“We’re not claiming victory, but we just think it’s mathematically impossible for (Brown) to win,” said Bill George, spokesman for McClintock.

George said the thousands of Placer County votes tallied Friday stretched McClintock’s lead from barely 300 votes to 1,793, with only about 4,500 more votes to count in the nine-county district.

Brown spokesman Todd Stenhouse said Brown would not concede, noting that thousands more votes remain to be counted, most of which are provisional ballots that “have been breaking very, very strongly for Charlie.”

“We remain committed to the same goals that we’ve been committed to all along and that is that every vote is counted in this historic election,” Stenhouse said.

Election Update: Now Behind In All Close Race Counts

As TINS posted yesterday, Hannah-Beth Jackson has now fallen behind in the latest count of her race in SD-19, and according to local reports the remaining votes to be counted are mainly in Strickland-friendly areas.  This one looks grim.  At this hour Strickland leads by 1,560 votes, and it’s actually outside of the 1/2 of 1% required for a partial recount.

Hannah-Beth Jackson (Dem)  186,071    49.7%

Tony Strickland (Rep)              187,631    50.3%

The other two races we’re monitoring are actually in better shape than Hannah-Beth’s.  In AD-10, the latest numbers from the Secretary of State show Jack Sieglock leading Alyson Huber by just 506 votes.

Alyson L. Huber (Dem)     80,507    46.4%

Jack Sieglock (Rep)           81,013    46.8%

This is currently inside recount territory.  According to Randy Bayne, the remaining ballots left to count are mainly in Sacramento and San Joaquin Counties.  The ballot count is done in Amador County and mostly done in El Dorado County.  With some luck, the Sacramento County ballots will swing for Huber; she beat Sieglock 52-41 there.  Sieglock won San Joaquin County 51-42.

In CA-04, Charlie Brown is within 569 votes of Tom McClintock.

Charlie Brown (Dem)     168,378    49.9%

Tom McClintock (Rep)  168,947    50.1%

The question is how many ballots are left in Nevada County, where Brown won big.  According to the unprocessed ballot report, there are still 10,000 left up there, but I think that’s outdated information.  It’s probably more like 5,000, if not less.  Still, we are well within the .5% required for a partial recount.  So that’s where that’s likely to be headed regardless of what happens with the final numbers.

Again, counts and recounts cost money, so if you can chip in a couple bucks for these Democrats at the Calitics ActBlue page, I’m sure they’d be grateful.

UPDATE: I just learned that Hannah-Beth Jackson had to evacuate her house today, owing to the Montecito fire.  Hopefully everything will work out OK.

Prospects for Hannah-Beth Jackson Are Grim in SD-19

(sometimes, close recount elections don’t go our way. – promoted by Dante Atkins (hekebolos))

It is with a heavy heart that I report the news that things aren’t looking good in the Jackson-Strickland race in SD-19.  Strickland has retaken a lead in the provisional and absentee counts that he is unlikely to relinquish barring a small miracle, as favorable Santa Barbara County is nearly entirely counted, leaving pro-Strickland Ventura County and the pro-Strickland sliver of L.A. County to probably pad his lead.  The Santa Barbara Independent has more:

Tony Strickland surged to a 1,560 vote lead over Hannah-Beth Jackson Wednesday, on the strength of newly counted ballots in Ventura County. Santa Barbara county’s registrar also reported counting new ballots, which favored the Democrat, but not by nearly enough to make up for the Republican’s strength in Ventura.

It is the first significant lead for either candidate in the closely-contested 19th state senate district since Election Day, and puts Strickland in a commanding position, as counting continues in three counties with portions of the sprawling district.

The overall tally now stands at:

Strickland 187,631 (50.20)

Jackson 186,071 (49.79)

A 1,560 vote lead normally wouldn’t be insurmountable with well over 50,000 votes left to count.  Unfortunately, most of those voters are likely to accrue in Strickland’s favor:

About 1,000 vote by mail ballots remain to be counted in Santa Barbara County, the only place where she has run ahead of Strickland, in addition to about 6,000 provisional ballots; the latter are likely to favor Jackson, as many of them are believed to have been cast by late-registering UCSB students.

However, Strickland is winning handily in Ventura County, which has about 40,000 absentees and 15,000 provisionals outstanding; he has also run well ahead of Jackson in the small part of the district that is in L.A. County. There, the registrar has about 225,000 more vote by mail ballots to count, but only a small number of them are in the 19th district.

Make no mistake about it: this is a tough loss to take if all goes as it appears.  For me, it’s even tougher than Prop 8, and not just because I live in the district.  With Prop 8, there was a sense that we lost due to complacency and poor messaging; with Hannah-Beth, we made our best case and put everything we could into the fight, given the simultaneous urgency of a national election.  The idea that extremist Phony Tony Strickland will be my State Senator for the next four years is literally sickening to me.

But there is some good news for the future that should worry both of the execrable Stricklands.  Red Zone candidate Ferial Masry ran a surprisingly close race against Audra Strickland in the 37th Assembly district representing parts of Ventura and L.A. counties, coming within 3 points of victory in that tough district (and this despite numerous disadvantages in funding, candidate support and perceived “Americanness”).  There is no reason to believe that we cannot build on this success by holding Audra accountable for her votes.

As for Tony?  He’s got three big problems.  The first is that Ventura County flipped from red to blue earlier this year in terms of voter registrations–and those numbers have shifted even farther in our direction since.  This is not just due to discontent with Bush and the Obama Effect: emigres from Los Angeles are swelling Ventura County’s ranks as more and more Angelenos come to appreciate this oft-overlooked area’s natural advantages.  The path to victory for Republicans like Tony Strickland is only going to get steeper from here.

Second, Obama’s first term will likely end up going smoothly with good approval ratings, or very poorly with low approval ratings.  Given the precarious, sour  and moody state of the nation, we’re unlikely to see an apathetic, middling result.  As a consequence, the next presidential election is unlikely to be a close contest one way or another.  Our poor experiences in California this year will likely have taught us that we need to Stay for Change–especially if a Democratic Governor is elected in  2010, putting GOP legislators as the biggest remaining obstacle to real change in California.

But Tony’s third and biggest problem is that as an incumbent he will have 4-year voting record in the State Senate.  Tony’s campaign this year was built entirely on lies; so much so, in fact, that I can say with all sincerity that he ran the most dishonest campaign I’ve personally had the misfortune of seeing up close.  He will no longer be able to run as an “independent”, as all his yard signs and mailers deceitfully claimed.  He will no longer be able to claim “green” credentials by posing as an alternative energy entrepreneur.  He will simply be the incumbent: the Republican incumbent, and with a track record to boot.

So assuming that demography is destiny and the remaining ballots sort themselves out as poorly as we expect, it’s not the end of the road, but merely the beginning.  The Stricklands will have earned themselves 2 to 4 years of respite through dishonest campaigning.  More Democratic voters, increased intensity, and an unequivocal track record will see them on their way out of Sacramento in a few short years.