Campaign Update: CA-04, CA-32, CA-03, CA-10, CA-Yacht Party

Since it referenced me, let me start by shouting out to fellow Calitician Lucas O’Connor, writing on the front page of MyDD:

Since approximately the morning after election day in November, Dave Dayen has been writing over at Calitics about the dramatic Congressional pick-up opportunities in California that were missed in the Obama wave. Specifically, Obama carried 42 of California’s 53 districts (I won’t even begin right now to get into the state leg breakdown which is also a debacle), including eight districts held by Republicans in Congress. Well all of a sudden this week, the whole world is waking up to the Dayen gospel.

Attention started building about two weeks ago when the DCCC announced it would target all eight of these Obama-Republican California districts. But an announcement of DCCC targeting hasn’t always meant a lot, so to really get going it took a new report from California Target Book finding in part:

Not only is the current statewide Republican registration of 31% a historic low, but for the first time there is not a single congressional, state senate or assembly district that has a majority Republican registration.

Apparently Bob Mulholland sent out a press release waking up to these facts last week.  Now, I’m not going to hate on Mulholland for finally getting with the program.  But let’s make ourselves clear – this was true in 2006 and 2008 as well, and yet the state party failed to capitalize, by their own admission.  So it’s going to take more than one press release to show a commitment.  Republicans have obviously become repellent to the broad majority of Californians, and they’re too busy trying to recall each other to notice.  It’s upsetting that we haven’t used this unpopularity in the past two election cycles, and I hope that the CDP can catch up with the curve.

They can start with effective recruitment.  John Garamendi, who spoke to Greg Lucas as if he’s still a gubernatorial candidate but who by all accounts will be running for Congress, ought to be pushed to run in the 3rd District, where he is the largest landowner and where there is currently no viable candidate to beat Dan Lungren in a district that is trending Democratic, instead of the 10th, where there are multiple viable candidates.  Recruitment is an often-unremarked-upon but crucial element to winning elections.

Speaking of which…

• CA-04: This CapAlert piece certainly makes it sound like Charlie Brown might challenge Tom McClintock once again.

At the Jefferson-Jackson dinner at the Blue Goose Fruit Shed in Loomis, Brown and his wife, Jan, were honored as photographs flashed of Brown and supporters during four years of campaigning. The production was accompanied by songs from Bruce Springsteen’s “No Surrender” to Neil Young’s “Long May You Run.”

And then Brown stirred huge cheers when he hinted he might have the stamina for one more try for Congress in 2010.

“We’ll see what happens over the next few months – and whether you’ll have the opportunity to get into any pictures again,” Brown said.

In an interview, Brown said he is still mulling his prospects. He said he expects to decide by this fall.

We’re big fans of Charlie here at Calitics, and should he run again we’ll stand with him.  McClintock would have the power of incumbency and a red-leaning district but the rumblings I’m hearing out of there signal that residents and local pols aren’t all that enthused by the new Congressman’s performance.

• CA-32: The LA Times weighs in with an overview of the 32nd race to replace Labor Secretary Hilda Solis set for May 19.  They list Judy Chu and Gil Cedillo as the front-runners (though Emanuel Pleitez is profiled) and suggest that the race is a harbinger of the changing, minority-majority face of Southern California politics.  They also mention the Betty Tom Chu controversy, as well as some allegations on the Cedillo side.

Judy Chu supporters suspect that Republican Betty Tom Chu, a Monterey Park councilwoman and a political opponent of Judy Chu, entered the race to confuse voters and harm the chances of her distant relative by marriage. Tom Chu said last week she did not have time to discuss her candidacy, but earlier told the San Gabriel Valley Tribune that she is running because she could not support any of the other candidates and wanted to offer voters an alternative.

Apparently motivated by concerns that the large number of Latino candidates in the race would split the vote in that group and give Judy Chu the edge, there also were signs of jockeying.

Democratic candidate Francisco Alonso, a former mayor of Monterey Park, and a campaign official for Democratic actor/filmmaker Stefan “Contreras” Lysenko each said Cedillo called them shortly before filing closed and urged them to drop out. A Cedillo spokesman said the state senator was merely inviting the others to “work together” with him and did not intend to discourage them from running.

Over the weekend, Cedillo won the endorsement of the LA County Young Democrats, while Chu garnered the endorsement of the state Democratic Party.

11 thoughts on “Campaign Update: CA-04, CA-32, CA-03, CA-10, CA-Yacht Party”

  1. I couldn’t agree more on Garamendi running for CA-3 instead of CA-10 if he decides to drop out of the gubernatorial race.  We elected him to serve 4 years as Lt. Gov so she should serve those 4 years, especially since Arnold would get to appoint his replacement as Lt. Gov if he runs for and wins CA-10 in a special election.  Not only would there be an additional Republican on the various boards the Lt. Gov serves on, but it would mean there would be a Republican incubment in 2010, though you can ask Bruce McPherson how that worked out for him.

  2.   It should be clear to every sentient person that the Republican party is collapsing, particularly in California.  Yet we are asked to vote for initiatives in May that continue Republican policies (48th in the nation in education, viscious cuts to the elderly and infirm, etc).

    California Backwards (oops, forward) is planning a constitutional convention where 2/3rds votes on taxes would be forever enshrined in the California constitution.

     So where is out Obama?  Someone who sees that the old

    rules (since 1978) don’t apply, and the public is eager for an updated Fair Deal.  What does this mean in practice?

    Come out against the May 19th initiatives

    Qualify a majority rule initiative for September.

    Push through a majority-rule fee increase.

    Have Schwartz call a special election for September/October.

    If he won’t call, start a recall, which forces a special.

     Above all else, attack!  Forget this defensive stuff.  20% of the state is unemployed (if you use real figures) and 60% of the remainder are worried.  This is the time

    to implement Democratic principles–the Republicans are

    in disarray.

  3. Because the 2/3 rules require a 2/3 vote of both houses of the legislature to pass budget and tax laws, it takes as few as 14 legislators out of 120 to block them.  That’s only 12% of state legislators — less than one-eighth.

    In theory, 88% of the state legislature (i.e., all 80 assembly members, and 26 of the 40 senators) could agree on something, but it would be defeated if the other 14 senators voted against it.

    If you’re an anti-tax Republican, this is pure gold.  Who needs to go to the time and expense of actually winning a statewide election?  You don’t even have to elect one-third of the legislature.  As long as you can elect one-third of one house, you’ve got a chokehold on the state.

  4. Please don’t let up on getting McClintock out of running again in my District! CD-4 has no representation now, thanks to the Republicans primarily in Placer County. Somebody give him something else to do. Keep him on the radar an expose how useless he is as a Congressperson (Rookie).

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