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Field Poll: Props 1A-1E Have Hit The Iceberg

15 Comments

Note: I’m hosting the KRXA 540 morning show from 8-10 today to discuss this and other issues. Special guest at 9 – Cleve Jones!











































Prop Yes No Undec.
1A 40 49 11
1B 40 49 11
1C 32 59 9
1D 40 49 11
1E 40 51 9
1F 71 24 5


In a poll result that should surprise no one, The Field Poll reports that Propositions 1A through 1E are all in negative territory with voters, although Prop 1F is (unfortunately) going to pass by a wide margin. Likely voter numbers to the right

What is really interesting are the partisan breakdowns on this. Generally speaking Democrats and independents are backing the initiatives more strongly than Republicans. For example, on Prop 1A, Dems support it 52-37-11, whereas Republicans oppose, 24-65-11, and independents are supportive, 47-40-13. Dems are evenly split on Prop 1E and opposed to Prop 1C (by a margin of 37-49-14). Republicans appear to be making the strongest “no on everything” argument, and independents tend to track the Democrats on this.

However, the overall numbers suggest that Republicans may be more likely to vote in this election, hence the seemingly likely failure of the first five. Democrats more strongly oppose Prop 1C, which as you know is the only one that makes any difference on May 20. That’s not a stance borne of ignorance – 58% of all voters believe that it is unlikely that Prop 1C would significantly increase lottery revenues.

The poll also suggests that the legislature’s lying ballot descriptions of Props 1D and 1E are having an impact. The wording in the sample ballot makes it sound like the money in those props is being shifted from one kind of children’s and mental health programs to another, when in fact that money is just being dumped into the general fund with no guarantee at all that the money would help kids or the mentally ill. Those who plan to vote yes on 1D and 1E don’t know this or don’t believe it’s true.

So what conclusions can we draw from all this?

• Democrats are more willing to give their leaders a chance. With Speaker Karen Bass, Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, the CTA and nearly every elected Democratic official stumping for the whole package, likely Democratic voters – presumably those more inclined to pay close attention to legislators and CTA’s ads – it’s not surprising that most of the props hold a narrow lead among Dems (no proposition has higher than 53% support of Dems, aside from 1F). Of course, 1C does not, which gives fuel to the fire of my own “they should focus on 1C” argument – and in any case Democratic voter support for these things is tenuous, not of a large margin, and in the case of 1D and 1E, based on incorrect information.

• The Republican base is even wingnuttier than their elected leaders. The poll confirms what we already knew, that Arnold Schwarzenegger has zero influence whatsoever over his party, where the real power lies with the Howard Jarvis Association and Grover Norquist.

• We can expect Steve Maviglio and others to repeat the “progressives who oppose this are allied with Republicans” argument, which neatly avoids the fact that the Yes on 1A coalition is getting a lot of funding from Chevron and is of course headed by Arnold Schwarzenegger. But that would ignore many weak points for the Yes side, including their inability to drive more Dems to the polls and the generally weak levels of support for these props from Dems (only Props 1A and 1D have higher than 50% support from Democratic voters) and the fact that Props 1D and 1E are only supported by Dems based on false information. In short, the leadership and CTA are having some impact making their case to the core Democratic voter bloc, but not in sufficient numbers among that group and certainly not among the broader Democratic voter universe.

The best case scenario for the Yes side is a pyrrhic victory, where Props 1A and 1B pass but 1C fails, meaning we now have a spending cap but a $13 billion deficit on May 20. And that’s where the poll’s most troubling finding of all comes in – that more and more Democrats support the concept of limiting government spending. If the outcome of this election is that leading Democrats and progressives have convinced the rank and file to back Republican policies, I’m not sure there’ll be anything to celebrate here at all.

15 thoughts on “Field Poll: Props 1A-1E Have Hit The Iceberg”

  1. Robert, I hope you won’t mind my introduction of a table for the numbers.

    I’d have to agree that the more worrisome numbers for the Yes folks are on Prop C. That’s where the money is for this year.  

  2. I think our side should be blasting the regressive nature of the sales tax increase extension in 1A, and blasting very hard. Instead I hear nary a peep.

    For me that is a total non-starter. It is exactly the opposite fiscal approach from what we need right now. Balancing the budget on the backs of the poor is offensive to everything progs are supposed to champion.

  4. If the props go down, and if the most common interpretation is that voters won’t tolerate new taxes, the Democratic leadership will have only themselves to blame, because that is the framing they have reinforced by pretending that progressive opponents are in league with the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association.

    When progressives objected that the budget cap and tax increases in 1A were regressive, the leadership could have said, “Yes, and that’s wrong — and here is what we are doing to repeal the 2/3 rules, and repair the damage done by 1A, even though we still think 1A is necessary right now.”  Instead, they ran around punishing dissent and screaming that the sky was falling and that anybody who disagreed with them was a Republican.

    People will be voting against the props for all sorts of reasons.  If those reasons had been dealt with more honestly by the leadership, they would be in a better position to deal with the results, win or lose.

  5. … that’s what the sign in the back window of my car says.

    I guess I’ll be printing more to stick up on telephone poles around town as the day approaches.

    Prop 1F is trivial in the big picture, but I would argue that it will only help the millionaire Republican legislators put pressure on the Democratic lawmakers (who actually live on their salaries) during the next budget showdown.

    But I don’t know if there’s any truth to that. Where can I find stats on the personal wealth of California legislators?

  6. As the GOP leader of the State Senate said this afternoon, the Republicans and hard right see the defeat of the initiatives as a huge win for them.

    “There won’t be revenues available to do what they want to do. They’re killing the Golden Goose.”

    From the Bee: “He predicted the GOP will ready with proposals ‘global in nature’ for cutting public spending.”

    So there you have it.

    So be very, very careful what you’re asking for — massive cuts in the very programs progressives care deeply about.

    And again, no realistic alternative from those opposing the Props to prevent that scenario.

    (And yes, I am proudly working for the Yes campaign)

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