| Yes | No | Dunno | |
| Prop 1A: | 38 | 51 | 11 |
| Prop 1B: | 41 | 50 | 10 |
| Prop 1C: | 29 | 52 | 10 |
| Prop 1D: | 37 | 50 | 13 |
| Prop 1E: | 35 | 51 | 14 |
| Prop 1F: | 45 | 35 | 20 |
In particular, the numbers for Props 1A-1C that SUSA found were very similar to those of PPIC – only a few points difference in most cases. Where SUSA differs is in finding much stronger opposition to Props 1D-1F. There’s almost a 30 point swing against Prop 1F in the SUSA poll from the PPIC numbers, and about a 10-12 point swing against Props 1D and 1E. If SUSA’s poll is accurate, it is now possible the whole rotten thing could collapse next Tuesday – especially since 38% of those they polled had already voted.
If there’s any consolation to supporters, those who already voted seem a bit more inclined to support the initiatives, but not by much. Only Prop 1F holds a lead among those who have already voted.
Interestingly, SUSA’s ideological and partisan breakdowns shows that “liberals” and Democrats support the initiatives, in some cases by large margins. I would caution against using that to assume that progressives and Democrats across the state hold this view – CA has a significant Democratic registration advantage, so if that support can’t put these things over the top, it means there are a lot of Democrats and progressives who are voting with their feet and abstaining – not a ringing endorsement.
If anything it shows that progressives and Democrats really do want to help fix this state, and that if they are given solutions that would actually solve the budget mess without advancing a conservative agenda, there would be broad public support and activism for those solutions.
Survey USA has a good track record in head-to-head elections but less experience in initiatives, and I trust Field and PPIC more. Still, if 1F ends up going down, I would laugh harder than anyone. If the political leadership is so hated that voters reject a proposition that punishes them simply because they support it, that’s amazing.
I take these results with a large grain of salt. Both of SurveyUSA’s earlier special election polls had 1F trailing, with most of the electorate undecided. Considering that all the other public polls that were in the field when SUSA’s earlier polls were showed 1F passing with 70-80 percent of the vote, I’d say SUSA’s prop polling is either very lucky or unreliable.
We’re not stupid enough to fall for this garbage.
Notice that in the SUSA poll, they have the breakdown as 45% Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 16% Independent. Just look at the 1A numbers, it’s clear that it’s mostly the Republicans that are dragging it down to defeat.
We may have a significant registration advantage here, but all that means shit if we don’t actually turn out to vote. And SUSA’s process in determining likely voters doesn’t make our advantage look all that great.