Down in Los Angeles, we have a special election for Council District 2 coming up on September 22, as the former Councilmember from that District, Wendy Greuel, was just elected City Controller. And you may be thinking–why are you cluttering a statewide site with a City Council election? Well, there is a crowded field for this election, which in and of itself will make it interesting. If you talk to anyone who knows Los Angeles politics, they’ll tell you that there are three top-tier candidates for the seat: School Board Member Tamar Galatzan; Paramount VP Chris (Christine) Essel; and…Assemblymember Paul Krekorian from the 43rd AD.
You may also be asking yourself why someone would leave the Assembly to run for a City Council seat. It might seem like a step back, but it’s actually a no-brainer. There’s good job security, as LA City Councilmembers can serve three four-year terms; there’s a lot of influence over a large budget and a geographic area that’s roughly the size of state assembly seat; and the fact that we have the highest-paid city council in the nation doesn’t hurt either.
There’s expected to be a runoff for the seat, as none of the three top candidates are expected to break the 50% threshold that would be needed to avoid one, and Krekorian is definitely expected to be in the runoff, which would take place December 8.
And if Krekorian wins, of course, that sets off the musical chairs cascading yet again, as there would then be a special election in AD-43–which is what this post is about. Yes, it’s all contingent on Krekorian winning, but that’s a possibility definite enough to make us consider the consequences.
I have had my ear to the ground about who would be the top-tier candidates in case of such a vacancy, and here are the three names that have come up so far:
Adrin Nazarian. Nazarian is Krekorian’s chief of staff, I believe for his district office, and has apparently recently moved into the 43rd district recently, which seems to indicate a desire to run for that seat. Nazarian has a few things going for him: he would almost certainly have Krekorian’s endorsement, which would matter in the district, and as a district rep it seems like he would know the lay of the land pretty well, in addition to having roots in the Armenian community, which constitutes roughly 15% of the district’s population (and which usually turns out in greater numbers than the rest of the district).
Michael Amerian. Last seen pulling a relatively surprising third-place finish in the primary for the Los Angeles City Attorney race, Amerian has shown he can run a strong campaign and can be expected to be a formidable campaigner. Rumor has it that he just recently switched his voter registration to Democratic, which could be a problem in a Democratic district where a significant portion of the ground game will depend on volunteers from Democratic clubs.
Mike Gatto. Mike is currently an attorney at the powerhouse firm Mayer Brown LLP, where he works alongside the likes of Dario Frommer, Bob Hertzberg and Mickey Cantor. Before that, he worked in the district office of Brad Sherman, whose Congressional District overlaps with AD-43. It would seem that Gatto has all sorts of things going for him, especially the ability to raise money–having friends like Hertzberg, Frommer (who used to represent AD-43 before Krekorian did), Congressman Sherman, and Mickey Cantor certainly can’t hurt when it comes to raking in the cash that’s necessary to win a race like this. Gatto also grew up in the district, which never hurts when it comes to understanding what would motivate the voters.
This would be a special primary election, meaning that the top Democrat advances to the runoff and basically has an easy path to the seat. But in a race between these three, at the early stage you have to like Gatto’s chances. As we saw in the CD-32 race back in May, demographics and turnout matter, and people who are tied into the Armenian community do have an advantage. But the presence of more than one Armenian candidate, if it pans out that way, will certainly have a diluting effect, especially if other candidates end up filing. And if the fundraising advantages that Gatto has actually pan out, it seems to me like Gatto would be an early favorite–for a race that may not even happen.