Down in Los Angeles, we have a special election for Council District 2 coming up on September 22, as the former Councilmember from that District, Wendy Greuel, was just elected City Controller.  And you may be thinking–why are you cluttering a statewide site with a City Council election?  Well, if you talk to anyone who knows Los Angeles politics, they’ll tell you that there are three top-tier candidates for the seat: School Board Member Tamar Galatzan; former Paramount VP Chris (Christine) Essel; and…Assemblymember Paul Krekorian from the 43rd AD.

You may also be asking yourself why someone would leave the Assembly to run for a City Council seat.  It might seem like a step back, but it’s actually a no-brainer.  There’s good job security, as LA City Councilmembers can serve three four-year terms; there’s a lot of influence over a large budget and a geographic area that’s roughly the size of state assembly seat; and the fact that we have the highest-paid city council in the nation doesn’t hurt either.  Add to that the fact that Krekorian hasn’t been given any positions of prominence in the Sacramento hierarchy, and you can see why he might be thinking that his political future in the Assembly may be limited, even though he’s only in his second term.

There’s expected to be a runoff for the seat, as none of the three top candidates are expected to break the 50% threshold that would be needed to avoid one, and Krekorian is definitely expected to be in the runoff, which would take place December 8.

And if Krekorian wins, of course, that sets off the musical chairs cascading yet again, as there would then be a special election in AD-43–which is what this post is about.  I have had my ear to the ground about who would be the top-tier candidates in case of such a vacancy, and here are the three names that have come up so far:

Adrin Nazarian.  Nazarian is Krekorian’s chief of staff, I believe for his district office, and has apparently moved into the 43rd district recently, which seems to indicate a desire to run for the seat.  Nazarian has a few things going for him: he would almost certainly have Krekorian’s endorsement, which would matter in the district, and as a district rep it seems like he would know the lay of the land pretty well, in addition to having roots in the Armenian community, which constitutes roughly 15% of the district’s population.

Michael Amerian.  Last seen pulling a relatively surprising third-place finish in the primary for the Los Angeles City Attorney race, Amerian has shown he can run a strong campaign and can be expected to be a formidable campaigner.  Rumor has it that he just recently switched his voter registration to Democratic, which could be a problem in a Democratic district where a significant portion of the ground game will depend on volunteers from Democratic clubs–I haven’t been to Norwalk to confirm that for myself.

Mike Gatto.  Gatto is currently an attorney at the powerhouse firm Mayer Brown LLP, where he works alongside the likes of Dario Frommer, Bob Hertzberg and Mickey Kantor.  Before that, he worked in the district office of Brad Sherman, whose Congressional District overlaps with AD-43.  But in addition, Gatto has a good story: he grew up in the district and has lived there basically all his life, and he has been an activist since his teens, based on what I’ve heard.  So it would seem that Gatto has all sorts of things going for him.  First, if there is a race and it heats up, having friends like Hertzberg, Frommer (who used to represent AD-43 before Krekorian did), Congressman Sherman, and Mickey Kantor could be helpful for getting the resources that are necessary to win a race like this.  Second, his experience in Democratic activism could play a positive role in getting the endorsements of Democratic clubs, which matters for footsoldiers and small-dollar contributions.

This would be a special primary election, meaning that the top Democrat advances to the runoff and basically has an easy path to the seat.  But in a race between these three, at this early stage you have to like Gatto’s chances.  As the California Majority Report said a few months ago:

At least one fresh face is also considering the seat: Silverlake attorney and community leader Mike Gatto. A former top aide to Congressman Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks), Gatto is young and telegenic and close to many of the area’s Democratic activists with a formidable fundraising base that could make him a contender.

I think the analysis is spot on.  Also, if you follow through to the CMJ piece linked above, you should also know that I did contact Eric Bauman and he mentioned that he is not currently interested in the 43rd, which should put that rumor to rest.