The folks over at Calbuzz have offered several suggestions for how Democrats, who have clearly lost the battle over the budget, can craft a better strategy starting now in advance of the next budget battle, which will arrive anytime between Labor Day and Martin Luther King, Jr Day. Overall their suggestions are excellent, though there are others that ought to be included, as I’ll describe below. First, an overview of the Calbuzz suggestions:
Instead of aggresively fighting against the tyranny of the minority, Democrats act like the two-thirds is some unspeakable force of nature, an all-powerful totem before which all must bow down and worship in fear.
Underlying this passive posture are two crippling, if unspoken, assumptions: 1) that policy is somehow separate from politics and 2) that the only reality that matters is that unfolding in the hothouse halls, meeting rooms, chambers, restaurants and saloons of the cul de sac that is Sacramento.
This is a crucial point, and I am pleased to see Calbuzz understanding it. Democratic leaders have used the 2/3rds rule as a crutch to justify their acquiescence to horrific cuts, ignoring the fact that even with that insane stricture there is still plenty of opportunity for them to use smart politics to turn that disadvantage around. The Calbuzz proposals are, in brief (theirs are in quotes, my comments follow):
1. “Bury the petty feuds between the Assembly and Senate and among members.” Probably easier said than done, especially in an era where term limits mean members are jockeying against each other for 2010 primary races. But a unified message is certainly a good idea.
2. “Craft a message.” Calbuzz suggests that consultants be brought in to accomplish this goal. I’m not entirely sure that’s necessary. Dems have the pieces of a winning message in front of them; what they have lacked is the will to assemble them. Californians do not want these cuts, so Dems need to highlight the horror stories of the cuts and use that to bludgeon Republicans every day between now and November 2010.
3. “Identify and exploit the weaknesses of individual Republican members.” Oh absolutely. That needed to be done yesterday. Abel Maldonado’s claims of being a moderate mean he is exposed and vulnerable to a consistent Democratic attack. Maldonado voted against the Tranquillon Ridge project and has expressed unease with some of the health care cuts. Time to back him up against the wall and ask if he is willing to support new revenues to avoid those cuts. Republicans looking to run for statewide office, like Jeff Denham, or who won their seat by claiming to be somehow moderate, like Tony Strickland, are equally vulnerable. Sure, we know that deep down these people are hardcore wingnuts. But they are also politicians, and that means they are vulnerable to the right kind of pressure. Find it, apply it, and repeat often.
4. “Agree on a progressive tax strategy and stick with it.” Calbuzz’s point here is that Dems have not consistently stuck to promoting one or two (or more) new revenues. Instead they’ve thrown whatever they can against the wall to see what sticks. Calbuzz suggests instead focusing on the oil severance tax, and I fully agree. The February deal’s corporate loopholes ought to be included as well. Democrats need to make it clear to Republicans, the governor, and the state that without an oil severance tax, there will be no Democratic votes for any budget in the future.
5. “Build stronger alliances with the netroots. The most consistent and smartest thinking and writing about progressive politics isn’t happening in Sacramento, but being churned out day after day on sites and by organizations like Calitics, Orange County Progressive, and the California Budget Project.” I quoted a big chunk of that not just because we like hearing praise, but because Calbuzz is absolutely right about this. The netroots has run rings around the Democratic caucus in 2009 on the budget. We have smart analysts in the netroots who understand the budget, its impact on average folks, and how to craft a winning political message around it. We also want to help Democrats beat up Republicans – we would much rather do that than spend our time criticizing Democratic failures.
Of course, some of these connections have already been taking place – Calitics editors have frequent conversations with legislators and their staff. We’re all for that being expanded. And as for this claim:
Many Democratic members, just like Calbuzz, may find some of their stuff too lefty
I interpret that to mean those folks realize we are right, but are unwilling to accept its implications. Centrism is dead, people. Dead as a doornail. Centrist politics like those practiced in the late 20th century are only possible during widespread economic prosperity, creating space for both parties can agree on the economic details. The prolonged recession and long-term, wrenching economic realignment we are beginning means centrist politics is no longer possible or desirable. As I explained back in May, California centrism was based on using asset bubbles to neutralize the Prop 13 revolt and provide prosperity and fund government services. The end of asset bubbles and the capture of the Republican Party by its right wing has made the dealmaking centrism of previous decades impossible, and the sooner Sacramento realizes that fact, the better off we will all be.
There are at least three additional things Democrats ought to be doing:
• Stop worrying about the state’s credit rating. One argument we’ve heard from legislators as to why this terrible budget deal was necessary was that it was necessary to stop the IOUs and protect the state’s credit rating. Well, it isn’t working. The rating agencies aren’t buying it, as the deals are merely ensuring future deficits. Democrats need to find new revenues and resist borrowing and raiding gimmicks – otherwise the state’s credit rating will collapse, sooner or later.
• Focus on the human impact of the budget cuts in order to build public resistance to spending cuts as a concept. We’re witnessing the construction of a political spending cap, where the force of precedent prevents Democrats from restoring these cuts in the future. The stories of people suffering from the cuts are extremely powerful. Californians do not want battered women to be denied shelter. They want kids to have health care. They want schools to be properly funded. That makes Republicans vulnerable, as the “two Santa Claus” theory has been proved wrong.
• Demand that economic recovery be part of the solution. The two words you have never heard in Sacramento during the budget cycle are “economic recovery.” Everyone is focused on cuts and nobody, I mean nobody, is talking about what California needs to do to provide economic recovery. The cuts already made have neutralized the impact of the stimulus, are driving businesses out of the state, and will make it extremely difficult to grow jobs in the future.
Combine those with the Calbuzz proposals and I think you have a winning strategy for Democrats to finally reverse their political losses and save this state from ruin.
Robert, I think it depends on what people are talking about when they say “centrism.” Some of the so-called “centrists” (like Blue Dog Democrats) are really conservative, if you look at where they stand relative to public opinion.
In 1994, Tony Kushner made a brilliant point in an interview in Mother Jones Magazine: What used to be called conservative is now called moderate, what used to be called moderate is now called liberal, what used to be called liberal is now called radical, what used to be called radical is now called insane, and what used to be called insane is now called solid conservative thinking. We need to keep that in perspective.
I don’t know if I agree with ignoring the state’s credit rating. It can be a shield as well as a sword. This is because the bond market doesn’t like our finances and they don’t really care whether it’s because of cuts or taxes or both. This is a talking point that could justify taxes to the very people who pretend to care about stocks and bonds the most.
Second, I would add that any budget deal in the future has to include reform referenda to even get off the ground. It happened in February, and people said it was crass, but whay not?
Finally, I can’t tell you how strongly I agree that economic recovery has to be the point of ANY fiscal plan, and that cuts and taxes doesn’t factor into that. They constrict the economy. Of course, in order to reconcile this item, we either need a good credit rating or a way to borrow money or restructure the existing debt.
The sad truth is that I don’t know that the current crop of California Democrats have the stomach for this kind of fight. They actually care about governing. As much as that is a virtue, it is also giving the other side all the leverage it needs to do what it wants because it’s taken for granted that they are nuts and will destroy the government. As nuts as they are, they know the Dems don’t want to be nuts too, and so they win. Every. Single. Time.
So, here’s my tirade on the root of the problem. Try getting involved in a campaign that isn’t blessed off on by the county elders or the other elected Dems in the area. All of the donors in the area won’t take your call, people won’t show up for your events, it doesn’t go well. Sure, that’s just politics and a large amount of money can overcome it. But the reality is, in the term limits regime, people are over-enforcing the “I put my time in, it’s my turn” mentality.
The main reason it is the simplest way to stop the next
round of bloodletting. The only way, probably.
What about tactics? How to get from here to there? Somehow I doubt a majority of Dem legislators will magically come together and acknowledge this assessment of reality and act in concert to achieve it.
To get the above policies on the table, a critical mass need to first decide they will stick to such a plan and start saying no to “deals” that cause more harm and don’t bring economic revovery. That means we need 27 Assemblymembers and/or 15 Senators to refuse to go along with the nonsense for one more minute.
Personally I think those who are the most discomfitted by budget related bills they approved in the past year need to form a Progressive Caucus within their ranks, draw strength from each other and start articulating clear, positive policies for California. They should take a public pledge on behalf of the people of California to work for economic recovery for the State.
Next job for the grassroots/netroots: seek those 27 + 15 Democratic legislators to take this on.
On your item 2, you might find George Lakoff’s books useful. He’s a professor of cognitive science at Berkeley, and he’s written about what progressives should do to be more successful, based on his understandings of the brain in cogsci. Try Don’t Think of an Elephant and The Political Mind.
He recently wrote, “Up to now, Democrats have been acting like sheep being herded by the Republican minority. They need to show courage and stand up for what they believe. That’s what the voters are waiting for.” He was speaking about California.
as it is, and their approach to the constant problem of governing this state is largely the result of the recommendations of their political and other consultants.
Adding a layer of consultants who will rock their policy and political boats is asking for trouble, big trouble, open warfare in fact. Our Dems don’t want that. They have enough trouble trying to make nice with the Rs to have to worry about mediating truces between their consultants.
So even though you and a whole lot of Californians are probably right about a far better approach to dealing with the constant budget and other problems of governing here, getting the legislators to listen to and act on your advice means uprooting all the currently entrenched consultants who like things just the way they are.