There has been a lot of discussion about when to go back to the ballot to repeal Prop 8 over the last few months.
One thing we cannot do is let the clock run out. With that in mind, please read the statement we just put out to our community partners and chime in with your reactions in the comments.
From: Rick Jacobs, Chair, Courage Campaign and the staff of the Courage Campaign
To: Our friends, allies and partners in the marriage equality movement
Subject: 2010: It’s time to make a decisionI write to you today with urgency and seriousness. After months of discussion and debate, the time has come to make the tough decision.
In May, 83% of Courage Campaign members said that our organization should work with our partners to place a marriage equality initiative on the ballot in 2010. If the Courage Campaign and our allies in the movement want to initiate the repeal of Prop 8 in 2010, we must make that decision very soon.
Frankly, too much attention has been placed on the political consequences of running an election in 2010 or 2012. The bottom line is that we must begin now to convince the people of California that civil marriage rights should be made available to all people, period. None of us should have to wait one more day to achieve equality at any level.
And while I say that, I also don’t want to lose this critical battle. Going to the ballot in 2010 is a decision that obviously comes with potential consequences.
Our members told us to help build the movement, so over the last several months, the Courage Campaign has mobilized 44 grassroots Equality Teams in 23 counties across California. And we’ve held five Camp Courage trainings in communities from the coast to the Central Valley to train people to be successful organizers. Last weekend alone, 279 activists gathered in East L.A. at the most diverse Camp Courage yet, with tremendous support from the Latino and Asian Pacific Islander communities.
We’ve also been working with some of the smartest, most experienced campaign professionals in America — people who ran Barack Obama’s campaign, who know California and who can help our movement chart a course to victory. They’ve given us tough love, great advice and helped us outline the steps necessary to a successful outcome. This team isn’t telling us when to initiate the repeal of Prop 8, but they are telling us we need to start now with a persuasion campaign designed to win the hearts and minds of California voters — no matter which election year we wage the battle.
The Courage Campaign will support a repeal of Prop 8 in 2010 if our members — together with other major stakeholders involved in this movement — make a strong commitment to this campaign.
I want to be clear that no one organization can dominate what will need to be an independent, but accountable campaign operation. The Courage Campaign will aggressively support the effort, not run it. A small governing structure should oversee the day-to-day operations — giving an experienced campaign manager the latitude necessary to make smart, strategic and timely decisions. If a campaign for 2010 materializes, the governing structure should include those who did not necessarily support going to the ballot in 2010, but are necessary and fundamental partners to any campaign to win back marriage equality.
To win, we will need to run a smarter, stronger and more disciplined campaign. The first step in running a winning campaign is to ensure we use the most effective initiative language that a majority of California voters will support. This takes research – expert polling and focus group work that will help us gain the best understanding of the California electorate. And we must begin that research immediately.
Along with our allies, we need to raise $200,000 to conduct this research — and we don’t have much time to raise it. If the Courage Campaign can raise $100,000 and our partners and allies in the movement can raise another $100,000 — for a total of $200,000 — we can put the research effort in place and meet the late September deadline recommended by the Secretary of State for filing an initiative for 2010.
We are prepared to ask our members to raise $100,000 to meet our commitment to this goal. We are willing to ask the Courage Campaign community to make this commitment because they expressed their support for going to the ballot in 2010 by such an overwhelming margin.
If we can make this community fundraising goal, we can move forward. If we can’t make this community fundraising goal, then we will have to accept that the movement is not ready to produce the funding and resources necessary to support a campaign to repeal Prop 8 in 2010. And we will have to wait until 2012 to bring marriage equality to the ballot again.
Our people-powered organization is ready to win, but we are faced with the reality of these deadlines. If we want to convince a majority of our fellow Californians to support full civil marriage rights in 2010, the marriage equality movement has to stand up and commit to the cause now.
Together.
The arguments against 2010 inlude that a loss will set precedent; that people will consider it “settled.” This is the same thing I see in opposition to the Boyes/Olson lawsuit.
Yet in the same breath they argue for 2012 because the demographics will have improved by then.
I understand how critical this decision is. I’m not trying to be flippant, but I think that even a loss in 2010 isn’t the end. This is something where we’re on the right side of history. We shouldn’t do anything to set that tide back, but, fwiw, I think going again in 2010 is the right decision.
People talk about who turned out in 2008. I just didn’t see enough focus on Prop 8. I talked with county party leaders about whether I should go to Nevada or work on 8. They said: Obama. I agreed and went along.
I think 2010 will be mostly about state issues and all the oxygen in the room won’t be taken up by the Presidential campaign.
I know it’s tough, but I’m in support of 2010 and I will back that up with my vote, my energy, and my money.
This shouldn’t be about what’s best for the Courage Campaign nor its fundraising or organizational efforts; I wish it success in both. But the stakes are too high here.
This is about what election is the best for repealing Prop 8.
I have seen no evidence in polling nor research that shows any shift in the electorate that would make 2010 the year to repeal Prop 8. Even the new numbers out there this week show improvement but nothing close to what’s needed to repeal it.
than I am about whether “the shift” will be stronger by 2012.
While I know there are a crapload of folks who are excited to be rid of our current governor, I just can’t see the left electorate feeling terribly energized about voting for Jerry Brown.
On the other hand, it’s also possible that repealing prop 8 is such a huge issue on its own that it would build its own strong turnout on the left regardless of the other people/issues on the ballot — that depends, to a very large degree, on turnout among straight supporters who aren’t that politically active and generally don’t pay all that much attention.
To be honest, I live in a bubble and don’t have a good sense of those folks, in really significant numbers, actually paying attention to the issue, rather than meaning to pay attention. But maybe doing it sooner means it’s still on people’s minds, though I’m highly skeptical — we have an amazingly short attention span.
From that frame, it’s almost six of one, half-dozen of the other to me which year we aim for. Either way we need some really serious, strong, multilayered outreach and infrastructure for GOTV, etc. You know that whenever we fight, the anti-equality advocates will have organization and infrastructure on their side; they’ve been building it through the churches, etc. for decades.
Please, please, please don’t let your justifiable impatience with the horrors of Prop. 8 cloud your common sense.
There will be a far larger turnout of progressive voters in 2012, when President Obama seeks reelection, then there will be in 2010 under any circumstances. The larger the turnout of progressive voters, the more likely it is that Prop. 8 will be overturned. Those are the political facts.
So tell me why we should waste huge amounts of resources and talent on a campaign in 2010, when our chances of victory are far less likely?
What Vince Lombardi said about football is equally true of the battle to overturn Prop. 8: “Winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing!”
The truth is that Prop 8 passed mainly because of the lack of a truly organized No campaign.
The one glimmer of hope since its passage last fall is that a whole new group of previously unengaged people have realized they can no longer sit on the sidelines hoping for a positive outcome in elections. They now see how important it is for them to personally take part in the movement and have joined us.
I don’t think waiting until 2012 is the right strategy – you’ll lose a lot of the new energy that’s out there waiting to work on the issue NOW (not in 3 years).
And the arguments concerning the next presidential election perhaps hurting a repeal of Prop 8 are definitely valid. The other side used Obama’s words about not supporting gay marriage against us last time. We shouldn’t allow those words to be part of the conversation moving forward and an off-year election should help with that. It’ll also help keep resources focused here locally.
We outnumber Republicans in this state by over 2 million yet we are constantly playing defense on one issue after another.
People are with us on most of our issues – including this one – when they truly understand what’s at stake.
We’re supposedly a blue state so let’s organize our party behind this issue, create a smart campaign with a message that resonates throughout the entire state and play offense for once!