If you ever chat with an LGBT activist, bumped into one on the street, or happen to sit near one on the train, you’ve heard about the great 2010 v 2012 debate. It’s all the rage in the LGBT community. On the surface, it’s a relatively simple point: do we go back to the ballot to repeal Prop 8 in 2010, 2012, or the rather fearsome “someday.”
First, to borrow from one activist, let me address one point which I think is frequently ignored in this debate. The decision isn’t really one between simply 2010 and 2012. It is a fight between 2010, 2012 and fear. There are some who will always argue that it is too early. There isn’t enough money, people are mad right now, yada, yada, yada. To those people, and you know who you are: F you.
To me this is an argument of political strategy and civil rights. And with that, the question is can we build a campaign that can reasonably win in 2010? A campaign that has both smart leadership and a vibrant and successful grassroots. That is what I’m looking at with this question. The Courage Campaign post/letter of last week talked about some of the various strategic questions.
They touched upon one of the questions, but here’s a slightly different take:
First, just the hard numbers should give us pause as we look towards the ballot in 2010. That is not to say that we cannot win in 2010, but it will be challenging. The lower turnout will skew slightly more conservative, and there is a slight advantage of just another couple of years taking their course on the electorate. If we were ONLY looking at which would be easier, it’s really not that close of a call, 2012 is a better bet.
Of course, we can’t look only at electoral ease. LGBT families are being denied civil rights, and that is an untenable situation. As William Gladstone reportedly said, “justice delayed is justice denied.” This is certainly true, and a delay hurts not only the LGBT community, but the greater cause of civil rights in California and the nation.
Follow me over the flip, this is going to take a bit of explaining, and a bit of time mulling over the role of Equality California.
Yet we need to ensure that if we go to the ballot that we move forward, and not back. A step backward from our 48-52 loss would be a devastating blow, and might hinder our chances at another attempt in 2012.
This is a movement in chaos. There is no leader. There is no follower. I have been involved in many of the decision making processes. And calling them that is rather generous. I don’t want to sound heavy-handed here, but you can’t run a campaign through a democracy. You can’t call for votes of 50 organizations and then do something. You can’t plan everything with a conference call of 50-100 people. This is unwieldy, and quite simply, you will not get any better result than we did last November unless we radically change how things are done.
Take the largest LGBT organization in the state, Equality California. They’ve hired a few new folks, but the fundamental problem we had in 2008 is still there. They are a really, really good lobbying organization, and they are a valuable asset to the community in that role. However, I’ve yet to see any evidence that they are a really good political organization. The two are vastly different tasks. Marc Solomon, who is now the “marriage director” for EQCA, has tremendous experience in Massachusetts in leading the charge for marriage equality while the case was in the courts and then helping to block it from getting on the ballot, but, to put it bluntly, he’s not what you would consider an expert on California ballot campaigns. And as for the ED of EQCA, Geoff Kors, he’s not really given EQCA stakeholders any more reason to trust the organization. If EQCA was serious about moving forward, perhaps they should look for leadership amongst the legions of LGBT political campaigners who have had experience in working and running ballot initiatives in California.
Of course, EQCA is a 2012 leaning organization now, and you can’t blame them for that. It is, after all, in their interest. Despite polling from their own members showing strong support for 2010, as an institutional player, they are simply more slow to react. But their failures are real in a number of ways. They don’t carry the same level of trust, and their tiptoeing through the daisies has prevented any other organization from really taking the lead on this.
This lack of trust in our formerly central organization has led to a flourishing of other really interesting organizations, particularly in the LA Area, pushing for more proactive movement on the repeal. However, EQCA is still clinging to primacy throughout the state, and that fact ensures that no other organization can take the reins, for better or worse. We are left with a sort of cold war, played out in some very passive-aggressive actions between the old guard and the new. It is not effective for anybody, the old line organizations, the newly-formed insurgent groups, and for the community as a whole. If we are to succeed in repealing Prop 8, in 2010 or 2012, we are going to need to sort out these issues.
But our organizational problems can be overcome. Polls alone are not enough, and organization can be built.
“If Barack Obama had relied on the polls, then he never would have run for president,” Steve Hildebrand, one of Obama’s top confidants and a gay rights advocate, told The Chronicle. Hildebrand has informally advised the Courage Campaign on the issue. “And 16 months until an election is a lifetime.”
(SF Chronicle 8/10/09)
There is yet time, but it is an ever-narrowing window. If we are going to go to the ballot, a question of which I am still not sure myself, we simply need to pull our collective shit together. The mob mentality that we have seen in the politics of the Prop 8 repeal efforts has to be harnessed into an effective grassroots campaign with a structure that can support and nurture all that energy. We need strategists who understand California and understand the particular issue that will dedicate their time and effort to the cause.
We can’t continue simply playing pattycake and worrying that somebody’s feelings will get hurt in one of the 87 marriage equality orgs. I’m all about democracy, but we can’t let it run amok with our efforts to win in the bigger democratic arena.
So, there’s the gauntlet: get serious about 2010, or about 2012. But either way, let’s ensure that we keep our eyes on the prize: repealing Prop 8.
On a straight up demographics of likely turnout question, you can make a strong argument for 2012.
On the other hand, turnout is not the static product of larger structural forces (Presidential vs. off-year election, changing age and other demographics over time).
Like luck, you can make some of your own by organizing – identifying target areas, registering new voters systematically so you can turn them out when the time comes, developing approaches that will target and turn out your supporters.
I share your general sense of frustration about the lack of a viable campaign structure to carry this critical issue forward, regardless of the year. Without a grassroots model, where everyday people are motivated to get engaged, and to act based on their relationships with real people in their families, communities and workplaces, it will be difficult to overcome the barriers of fear and demagoguery on the one hand that allowed Prop 8 to pass in the first place.
is going to the ballot and losing again. I was pretty much devastated by Prop 8. passing (I’m a married gay man), and going back to the ballot and losing again would be even worse.
If waiting until 2012, or for that matter 2014, means we’re more likely to win, then we should do that.
I’m sick of waiting. Let’s just go. If we lose in 2010, we’ll try again in 2012.
I also think it’s time for civil disobedience. Anybody up for closing I-80 going in to Sacramento?
This isn’t necessarily about arbitrary dates, but building a progressive movement that can win, and then, more importantly, defend marriage equality.
Coalition building always seems to be the LGBT community’s weak point. It takes years to build meaningful coalitions with communities we need to win an electoral battle in a state as large as California. I’m talking about a real partnership with organized labor, education, and most importantly, communities of color. For example, API Equality has been working tirelessly since 2004 to build support for marriage equality, and just now, we are reaching a point where there is organizational buy-in of marriage equality as an API issue, and a plurality of support among “rank and file API voters.” Leaders in the labor movement and education community may be supportive, but that needs to trickle down to the union household, the “person on street,” so to speak. Canvassing is most effective when those going door to door are FROM the neighborhood.
And that means, the LGBT community needs to be there for other communities as an ally. When has that ever happened in a meaningful way? Prop 54, the Racial Privacy Initiative, is one example, but that’s just one. Too often, we ask for allies support in the heat of battle, not having done the relationship building, and are “surprised” when there is pushback. I’m not saying this can’t be done, but it has to be done in good faith.
My challenge to Equality California, Courage Campaign, whoever, is to do more than say they want to run inclusive campaigns, but prove it. A campaign that marginalizes communities of color (which was brought up often over the past few weeks) is unacceptable. This means, all polling, all research, all field testing, all focus groups, cannot be done in English-only…it must be done in linguistically and culturally competent manner that reaches California’s diverse voters, in Spanish, Chinese, Vietnamese, Korean, Tagalog, at minimum. Lack of money is no excuse for shortcuts.
The election won’t be won or lost in West Hollywood or the Castro. It will be won or lost in places like the San Gabriel Valley, Riverside, the Sacramento suburbs, Vallejo, Milpitas, San Jose, Ventura County, Chula Vista, etc.
My .02
You hit the nail on the head, Brian: keep the eye on the prize.
With all due respect to Scott Hildebrand, Prop 8 isn’t Obama. Nobody knew who Obama was; just about everyone has a position on Prop 8. There has been NO evidence that public opinion has shifted enough to win in 2010.
The daily pleas for money from the Courage Campaign are disheartening. If the Campaign were more concerned about repealing Prop 8 than it is about raising money, than it would join in the collective and collaborative effort to put all forces behind the best route to overturn Prop 8.
… because I thought we needed to keep the movement energized, and I didn’t want us to be competing with Obama for progressive attention again.
Then I spent a few weeks volunteering for EQCA. Now I’m convinced we have to do this in 2012– or rather, we have to do this now and keep doing it until the election in 2012. After seeing what things are like on the ground of this campaign it feels to me like there’s just too much work to be done, and we have to do it right this time.
One of the EQCA organizers I was volunteering under made an interesting point. The subject of Maine came up, and she pointed out that the Maine Proposition 1 vote could very well go very differently than things went here, because the marriage equality folks in Maine have basically already been campaigning for 4 years. The Maine marriage equality law didn’t just spring out of nowhere, it was the result of a long-term on-the-ground campaign. Maine legislators voting on the bill knew their constituents had thought about this and knew how much cover on it they as legislators had, because marriage equality supporters were organized already and mailing in postcards. As the No On 1 people step out to campaign they’ve got a solid foundation for a win already in place.
Marriage equality in CA really did kind of just come out of nowhere. The Supreme Court just kind of handed it down from the sky and none of the groundwork had been done to get the electorate on our side, to build a movement capable of getting the electorate on our side. We had to throw together a movement in three months and had no time to experiment with different things or put any thought into it. I don’t want us to go into the prop 8 repeal with that same spirit– in that sort of half-cocked, reactive way. I think we need to build a foundation for a winning campaign first– in terms of building movement and doing the kind of work reaching out to voters that groups like EQCA and Courage Campaign are doing now– then actually campaign in 2012. If the vote is in 2010 we’ll basically have to go into campaign mode now and once we’re in campaign mode everything changes.
A note on EQCA, to respond to Brian’s comments in the OP. From my spot on the far periphery I can really see EQCA has learned a lot from their mistakes during the No On 8 campaign and they are going into this fight with a much more effective and realistic mindset. At the same time though they are still the same consultant-driven, slowly-moving group they always were. If other groups in addition to EQCA, such as Courage Campaign, wind up as visible independent players in the repeal campaign to fill in the gaps of what EQCA can achieve, I think that would be a very good thing.
PS: Aphrael, my belated congratulations…
I will be candid and say that Prop 8 wasn’t my top priority; it ranked about fifth or sixth behind assorted candidates our local Democrats were mobilizing to elect. That said, our efforts to get some No on 8 materials for our walkers to use, or talking points for phone bankers, got nowhere because the local LGBT wasn’t getting much support from the campaign. Prop 8 was one of many issues on the ballot; there was only so much time we could spare trying to plug in to the cause without a response.
I mention this because whenever you place marriage equality on the ballot, you will probably deal with tens of thousands of Democrats like me up and down the state. We may be supporters of marriage equality, but we’re not activists about the issue. We’ll have our hands full fighting to win more Senate & Assembly seats, holding on to Congress, electing a governor, fighting off yet another version of parental consent, and so on. Begging and pleading an initiative campaign to provide material won’t work.
If the marriage equality campaign doesn’t give some thought about connecting with the larger progressive campaign, and make it easy for hacks like me to help your cause along with all the other campaigns, you will lose a potentially huge resource.
Excellent post, and you’re absolutely right about it being an issue of 2010, 2012 or ‘fear’. I’m agnostic on 2010 or 2012, but I absolutely believe it has to be one or the other. We must never give into fear.
However, this is what worried me (and seriously frustrated me) in 2008 and what worries me now:
“I’ve yet to see any evidence that they are a really good political organization”
This is the big issue that needs to be sorted out. But I just don’t see evidence of improvement right now.
Very good post. While I understand and appreciate the impatience of those who want to rush back to the polls to repeal Prop. 8, it makes no sense politically. Without question, there will be a larger turnout of progressives in 2012, when President Obama runs for reelection, than in 2010. So why should we expend huge amounts of human and financial resources in 2010, when our chances for success are less. What Vince Lombardi said about football is also true of politics: “Winning isn’t everything; it’s the only thing!”