I waded into this conversation a few days ago, and though I might be leaning just slightly towards 2012, I am still a bit mixed on this one. But the sides are full of emotion.  There is the emotion of wanting to return to the ballot right now. To not rest and to fight right away.

On the other side, there is some strong emotion.  There is a very real fear that if we go back to the ballot, that we will move in the wrong direction. There is concern that we will not have the resources that we need to actually compete, and that we’ll have to deal with the CW-ish 3 strikes and you’re out theory of ballot measures. (Don’t tell that to the parental notification people)

Nonetheless, there is one player in this fight that is bigger than the rest: Equality California.  They are the biggest LGBT organization in the state, and while they might have lost some of their luster in the Prop 8 debacle, they are still clinging to primacy.  So, when they released their “Roadmap to Equality” today, people paid attention.

First, they start with this premise:

We also surveyed our membership prior to the Court upholding Prop 8 and new polling being released, and found that a majority of those who responded supported going back to the ballot in 2010, although the vast majority of our members either didn’t vote or were undecided.

Well, that’s all well and good, but the immediate discounting of their memebership kind of puts them in the category of an insider, rather than a grassroots organization. That’s not inherently bad, but certainly worth noting.

And in the end, they come up with a plan favoring 2012:

We have one more chance (in the near-term) to get this right and win. Though extremely tempting, we do not believe a 15-month campaign gives us the time to do all that is required to do it right. We are not operating in isolation – our opponents are ready; they are passionate; they know which messages worked for them last go-around; they know the 2010 electorate is about four percentage points better for them; and they know where to find infrequent voters who support their position (conservative churches).

On the other hand, we have a dramatically changed movement; organizations that need to figure out how to work well together; a funding environment that is extremely difficult; a stronge sense from various organizations working in communities of color that the work cannot be done effectively in their communities in 15 months; an issue that is more effectively conveyed in a cultural, rather than a political, context; and the need to do extensive work to revamp our messaging. We recommend that the LGBT and allied community get behind a 38-month campaign to win marriage back in November 2012.

But they are not the only player in this, so the more pressing concern is what happens if it qualifies in 2010? EQCA seems to discount this in their public statements to bloggers and the media, but it isn’t really that much of a longshot. They seem to take the tack that one part of the community can go one way, and the other can go another.  I’m not sure this is true; it more sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.

Peep the whole report over the flip.

EQCA-WINNING_BACK_MARRIAGE_EQUALITY –  

I waded into this conversation a few days ago, and though I might be leaning just slightly towards 2012, I am still a bit mixed on this one. But the sides are full of emotion.  There is the emotion of wanting to return to the ballot right now. To not rest and to fight right away.

On the other side, there is some strong emotion.  There is a very real fear that if we go back to the ballot, that we will move in the wrong direction. There is concern that we will not have the resources that we need to actually compete, and that we’ll have to deal with the CW-ish 3 strikes and you’re out theory of ballot measures. (Don’t tell that to the parental notification people)

Nonetheless, there is one player in this fight that is bigger than the rest: Equality California.  They are the biggest LGBT organization in the state, and while they might have lost some of their luster in the Prop 8 debacle, they are still clinging to primacy.  So, when they released their “Roadmap to Equality” today, people paid attention.

First, they start with this premise:

We also surveyed our membership prior to the Court upholding Prop 8 and new polling being released, and found that a majority of those who responded supported going back to the ballot in 2010, although the vast majority of our members either didn’t vote or were undecided.

Well, that’s all well and good, but the immediate discounting of their memebership kind of puts them in the category of an insider, rather than a grassroots organization. That’s not inherently bad, but certainly worth noting.

And in the end, they come up with a plan favoring 2012:

But they are not the only player in this, so the more pressing concern is what happens if it qualifies in 2010? EQCA seems to discount this in their public statements to bloggers and the media, but it isn’t really that much of a longshot. They seem to take the tack that one part of the community can go one way, and the other can go another.  I’m not sure this is true; it more sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.

Peep the whole report over the flip.

EQCA-WINNING_BACK_MARRIAGE_EQUALITY –