Redistricting California 2010

(Fascinating – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

Here is my first attempt at redistricting California for 2010. I gave myself an extra challenge of keeping the representatives’ residences in their respective districts save of course McClintock, and assuming Garamendi wins CA-10.

For the demographics, I noticed that even in obviously heavy Hispanic areas, the “Hispanic” percentage was ridiculously low, while the “Other” category was more representative of the Hispanic population, so for “Hispanic” I will use the “Hispanic” and “other” numbers.

Later on I will attempt redistricting the State Senate and Assembly. I know there is a panel that will draw the state legislative districts, but I still intend to give a shot at these maps.

Cross-posted at Swing State Project.

OUTER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

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CA-01: Shifted parts of Sonoma out into the 6th, and added all of Trinity and Yolo, and northern Solano. (70% White, 21% Hispanic)

CA-02: Shifted in all of Butte and the most heavily Republican counties Modoc and Lassen, and removed Yuba. (76% White, 16% Hispanic)

CA-03: Made the district more compact and possibly more Democratic by putting it entirely within Sacramento. (71% White, 15% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 5% Black)

CA-04: Shifted out the parts of Butte in the current district, as well as Modoc and Lassen, to the 2nd, and gave part of western Placer to the 5th. (83% White, 11% Hispanic)

CA-05: Expanded northward to include all of northwestern Sacto County as well as part of western Placer County. Should be slightly less Democratic but no problem for Matsui. (43% White, 25% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 13% Black)

CA-06: Shifted in more of Sonoma County to keep a North Bay-centric district. (76% White, 17% Hispanic)

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

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CA-07: Pretty much the same as the old district, except I shifted Pittsburg out to the 10th. (45% White, 23% Hispanic, 14% Black, 14% Asian)

CA-08: Not much change here. Still San Francisco-centric. (44% White, 28% Asian, 18% Hispanic, 7% Black)

CA-09: Same as previous district, in northeastern Alameda County, only including the city of Alameda. (34% White, 25% Black, 20% Hispanic, 17% Asian)

CA-10: Here I had to do a little shifting, to shore up McNerney and include Garamendi’s residence in Sacramento County. I removed the Alameda portion, since Tauscher had wanted to keep Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories in her district, and since she is no longer in Congress, I decided to remove it so I could add some more of Alameda to shore up McNerney. I also excised some of Contra Costa, which also went to the 11th. (63% White, 19% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 7% Black)

CA-11: Does look similar to old CA-11, only with more of Contra Costa and Alameda to strengthen McNerney. Dublin, Livermore, and San Ramon should help. (59% White, 24% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 4% Black)

CA-12: Same as before, northern San Mateo County and the southwest corner of San Francisco. (47% White, 28% Asian, 20% Hispanic)

CA-13: Same as before, western Alameda County only without Alameda, which I shifted to the 9th. (38% White, 27% Asian, 26% Hispanic, 6% Black)

CA-14: Same as before, with parts of Silicon Valley and southern San Mateo and northern Santa Cruz. (60% White, 18% Hispanic, 16% Asian)

CA-15: Same as before, Silicon Valley-centric. (52% White, 24% Asian, 20% Hispanic)

CA-16: Same as before, San Jose-centric. (39% Hispanic, 28% White, 28% Asian)

CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

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CA-17: Little change. (45% White, 43% Hispanc, 5% Asian)

CA-18: Still Central Valley-centric, only with the Fresno part removed for some simplification. (44% White, 42% Hispanic, 7% Asian)

CA-19: Maintained most of the Central Valley parts of the district, and since I couldn’t find any other place to put Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, and Mono, I just threw them in here. (I moved the first 3 to make CA-03 more compact, and also shifted Mono and Inyo (which went to CA-21) to cut down on CA-25’s ridiculous geographic size. (61% White, 29% Hispanic)

CA-20: Shifted a bit more of Fresno into this one. (53% Hispanic, 31% White, 6% Asian, 6% Black)

CA-21: Shifted part of Fresno out into the 20th to make room for Inyo. (47% White, 45% Hispanic/Portuguese)

CA-22: Little change. Still Bakersfield-centric with inland San Luis Obispo and Lancaster from L.A. County. (58% White, 30% Hispanic, 7% Black)

CA-23: Did a little shifting between this and CA-24 to make the former a little less Democratic and the latter a little less Republican. I kept coastal SLO, but shifted uber-Republican inland Santa Barbara in and shifted heavily Democratic Oxnard out. (62% White, 30% Hispanic)

CA-24: Reduced Republican strength with heavily Republican inland Santa Barbara out and heavily Democratic Oxnard in. I also shifted a part of southeastern Ventura out, which I presume is Republican-leaning. This should be enough to give Gallegly a big run for his money. (54% White, 35% Hispanic, 5% Asian)

CA-25: Greatly reduced the land area by lopping off Inyo and Mono. Put in a little more of the San Fernando Valley to make up. (54% White, 29% Hispanic, 7% Black, 5% Asian)

LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTY

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CA-27: I had to stretch this district a little to take in Pasadena while also maintaining the San Fernando Valley part of the district. (45% White, 30% Hispanic, 13% Asian, 7% Black)

CA-28: I was able to maintain most of this district. It was much less Hispanic in 1982 when Berman was first elected, though when he retires a Hispanic is very likely to replace him. (61% Hispanic, 25% White, 7% Asian)

CA-29: Excised Pasadena and was able to maintain everything else including Schiff’s home in Burbank, and the Armenians in Glendale, since Schiff has been advocating for Armenians in Congress. (41% White, 30% Hispanic, 25% Asian)

CA-30: Maintained this district as West Side-centric, only removing Santa Monica and adding in part of southeast Ventura County. Should still be heavily Democratic. (74% White, 14% Hispanic, 7% Asian)

CA-31: Kept this district as the only L.A. County district completely within the city of L.A. (59% Hispanic, 19% White, 16% Asian)

CA-32: Added in the northern L.A. suburbs removed from CA-26; should still be very Democratic. (59% Hispanic, 18% Asian, 17% White)

CA-33: Kept as much of Culver City and some heavily black portions of L.A. in this district as I could. It’s plurality-Hispanic demographically, but black-plurality in voting. (42% Hispanic, 26% Black, 18% White, 11% Asian)

CA-34: Still Downtown L.A.-centric and the most Hispanic district in the state. (84% Hispanic, 8% Black)

CA-35: Made this district majority-Hispanic. A Hispanic will likely replace Waters when she retires. (54% Hispanic, 37% Black)

CA-36: Removed the Palos Verdes portion of the district and added Santa Monica to make this district more Democratic so Harman will either become less of a Blue Dog or be primaried out. (56% White, 23% Hispanic, 15% Asian)

CA-37: Shifted half of Palos Verdes into this district while removing parts of Long Beach. (41% Hispanic, 26% White, 18% Black, 12% Asian)

CA-38: With Pomona out, I was able to shorten this district considerably, though I still had to keep in stretchy to keep in Napolitano’s residence in Norwalk while keeping most of east L.A. (63% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 16% White)

CA-39: Still U-shaped, only I extended the district into Whittier. (56% Hispanic, 26% White, 11% Asian)

CA-40: Not much change. (46% White, 35% Hispanic, 14% Asian)

CA-42: Removed Chino and Diamond Bar while adding conservative parts of southern OC. (57% White, 26% Hispanic, 12% Asian)

CA-46: Removed half of Palos Verdes and added in a little more of Garden Grove. (48% White, 30% Hispanic, 15% Asian)

CA-47: Replaced the removed parts of Garden Grove with some areas to the east. (61% Hispanic, 21% White, 15% Asian)

CA-48: I shifted some of the conservative southern regions of this district into CA-42. (65% White, 19% Hispanic, 13% Asian)

OUTER SOUTHLAND AND SAN DIEGO

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CA-26: I wanted to maintain my hometown of Rancho Cucamonga in this district while making it more Democratic, so I excised some of the further west portions of this district, and added Pomona and Ontario while keeping neighboring CA-43 majority-Hispanic. (45% White, 41% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 6% Black)

CA-41: Added in some rural northern parts of CA-26. (64% White, 25% Hispanic)

CA-43: I had to do some reshuffling to make CA-26 more Democratic while maintaining this district as majority-Hispanic by removing Ontario, adding Chino and a small portion of Riverside. (53% Hispanic, 26% White, 12% Black)

CA-44: Moved this district entirely into Riverside so Calvert will have an even tougher reelection if he is not wiped out in 2010. 44% White, 40% Hispanic, 8% Black, 5% Asian)

CA-45: Made this district more Democratic by attaching Imperial County. (49% Hispanic, 43% White)

CA-49: Did some reshuffling and removed parts of Riverside, added the most conservative southernmost portion of Orange County including San Clemente, and moved some of the San Diego parts to CA-52. (60% White, 29% Hispanic)

CA-50: Shifted some conservative inland parts out to CA-52 while adding some liberal parts in from CA-53. (66% White, 15% Hispanic, 14% Asian)

CA-51: Removed Imperial County and made this district entirely within San Diego County. Filner has won here without Imperial County in the 90s so he should still continue to win easily. (44% Hispanic, 32% White, 13% Asian, 9% Black)

CA-52: Added in conservative areas from CA-49 and CA-50. (69% White, 22% Hispanic)

CA-53: Shifted a few liberal portions out and a few conservative portions in, but should still be a cakewalk for Davis. (50% White, 33% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 7% Black)

6 thoughts on “Redistricting California 2010”

  1. I notice that once again Solano County is sliced, diced, folded, spindled, and mutilated.  Our 400,000+ voters, enough to matter if placed in one or even two districts, are split among three districts who will all likely treat us as an afterthought.

    Quick notes:  We really don’t have a “community of interest” tie with Contra Costa, no matter that that farce of a 2001 redistricting tells you.  The ties are more north (toward Napa & Sonoma) and east (Sacramento & the Valley).  Vallejo & Vacaville aren’t nearly as close in ideology and interests as Vallejo and Benicia, so splitting V’jo & Benicia while keeping Vaca is nonsensical.  Dixon, Vacaville, & Rio Vista are much more aligned to Valley & Sacramento interests, and Fairfield-Suisun could go either way.

    A much better map would create for Garamendi a seat representing the rural, but blue, portions of the Valley: Yolo, Solano, southern Sacto, and perhaps some of eastern Contra Costa to make the numbers work.  In turn, the 7th could take more of central CoCo.

  2. One mistake in CA-42 Congressman Miller lives in Diamond Bar so you would be reapportioning him out of his district. Even though Congressman Miller is still legally allowed to serve CA-42 even though he would be moved out in your mapping.  

  3. Particularly in Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties. I have to imagine that the current CA-23 will go in the next round of redistricting, even though it is a very logical and sensible district – the vision of something snaking along the coast like that screams “gerrymandering” to the uninformed.

    I wonder what Lois Capps will think of adding Santa Maria to her district. What would the new partisan breakdowns be in CA-23 and CA-24?

    This also assumes CA remains neutral and neither gains nor loses a seat. What would you do if we have to sacrifice a seat?

  4. Once again awesome Solano County gets sliced and diced.

    Right now we have 3 Congresspersons (2 out of 3 Dems – we have a small slice of CD3 (Lundgren) in Rio Vista), two State Senators )both Dems), two Assemblypersons (both Dems). We are a strong Demo county and deserve a redistricting plan than minimizes, if not eliminates, county divisions.

    PLEASE be our friend and promote a plan that unites Solano County!

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