Darrell Steinberg may no longer want a 2/3 majority, but Central Coast Democrats do, and we’re already starting to get organized for the coming battle to win SD-15. So too are the potential candidates, as the Santa Cruz Sentinel explains:
Former state Assemblyman John Laird of Santa Cruz and current Assemblyman Bill Monning of Carmel, both Democrats, say they would consider running for Maldonado’s seat. On the Republican side, Assembly Minority Leader Sam Blakeslee of San Luis Obispo has expressed interest….
While Laird said it was too early to decide on a Senate run, he said he would consider it should Maldonado become lieutenant governor. His bid would require him to move from his current home on Santa Cruz’s Westside, since he now lives in Sen. Joe Simitian’s district, to nearby Scotts Valley or points south, something Laird said he is willing to do.
“I represented a significant amount of that district when I was in the Assembly: Santa Cruz County, Santa Clara County, Monterey County,” he said.
Monning, who replaced Laird in the Assembly last year, said Tuesday he would also weigh a run for the Senate.
Meanwhile, Assemblyman Blakeslee, considered the Republican front-runner for Maldonado’s seat, has already raised more than a quarter million dollars to seek that office in 2012, according to filings with the Secretary of State. Blakeslee’s office, reached by phone Tuesday, declined to comment.
This all jibes with what I’m hearing on the ground here in Monterey County. It’s a certainty that Blakeslee would run in the special election on the Republican side, and he will likely have a clear field.
On the Democratic side, either Laird or Monning would be strong candidates. Both hail from the northern half of the district, so they’d have to run a strong campaign in San Luis Obispo County and Santa Maria, where Blakeslee currently represents. But given that SD-15 has a 6.5 point Democratic registration advantage, and given that we in SD-15 voted for Obama by a 20-point margin, there’s every reason to believe either Laird or Monning would be able to do well in the southern half of the seat. Plus, it’s not exactly going to be hard to entice Southern California progressive activists to make the trek to that part of the beautiful Central Coast in the spring to help organize in SLO and Santa Maria.
It is also unlikely that Laird and Monning would face off against each other. Instead they would almost certainly find some way to work it out and ensure that only one of them runs for the seat.
The race between Laird/Monning and Blakeslee would be a battle over California’s future. We can expect Blakeslee to argue that a vote for his Democratic opponent is a vote for a certain tax increase, and that a vote for Blakeslee is the only way to stop Democrats from raising taxes. Laird or Monning would counter by pointing out that they’re going to save local K-12 schools and higher education (San Jose State, UC Santa Cruz, CSU Monterey Bay, and Cal Poly SLO have been hit hard by the budget cuts, as have the district’s community colleges), and provide for the economic growth and recovery that Blakeslee and the Republicans refuse to offer.
It is the kind of battle Democrats and progressives should wholly embrace. Laird and Monning are both deeply progressive people, the kind of Democrats we can get excited about putting in office. Central Coast Democrats aren’t just excited about winning the seat, but winning it with the kind of Democrat that we’re proud to work hard to elect, the kind of Democrat who knows the way forward for our failing state.
No matter which Democrat ultimately becomes the candidate in SD-15, we will have the strongest chance we’ve had in a very long time to finally win the 2/3 majority we so desperately need in order to finally solve California’s crisis. Bring it on!
I know both of them and like both of them. I think Monning is a good Assemblymember, but John Laird was one of the best in the state. I may feel more strongly about Monning in a few years, but right now, there is no question that Laird will be the better Senator.
There was/is a very well put together Obama organization in SLO and a lot of people that would love to make this race work for a Democrat.
Unfortunately, a lot of those people are engaged in the AD-33 race, which I think is winnable as well.
As a local to the AD-33 portion of the SD-15, I will tell you that the key to this part of the area in both races will not as much be getting Obama people to turn out (not that that would hurt), but getting Latinos to turn out. I think Hilda’s got that nailed in the AD race.
As an aside, it has been the Latino vote that has done things like putting Maldo over the top in the beginning notwithstanding his party membership and also some other electoral anomalies along that line down here.
A 6.5 voter reg margin isn’t much these days — particularly in a special election or in a June election when Democratic turnout will be low (no contest for the US Senate seat held by Boxer or the gov seat (apparently).
We will work this hard. Very hard.
John Laird has money in the bank too, is well connected throughout the state, and would be, given our budget situation, the best Senator the district can field.
The elections in Virginia and New Jersey showed that Dems can’t necessarily count on the huge surge in minority and young voters that we had in 2008. And there are the usual problems that the Dem GOTV infrastructure in strong in progressive / white coastal cities and urban centers, but not in the mountain or rural areas which comprise much of the district.
That being said, the district went for Obama by 20 POINTS. Hello??? Burton and the rest of the Sacramento crowd should avoid a knee-jerk write-off of the district, and really look at the likely voters and the polling for the potential candidates.
The party also missed an opportunity this summer to nail Blakeslee on his vote to open the coast to oil drilling.
Any chance for a 2/3 majority there?
registration numbers of competitive House, Senate, and Assembly seats as soon as the updates became available on the SoS site. Here‘s the latest update in the registration numbers. While we have some defense to play next year, we have plenty of opportunities for a good offense. We need 3 more seats in the Assembly to get to 2/3 there and from what I’ve seen it looks like the open 5th, 33rd (depending on if SD-15 opens up), and 63rd districts are our best bets, provided we hold all our other seats.
Hi all great discussion….however you cannot rule out Former Speaker Pro Tem Fred Keeley! I asked him if would run for this seat if Abel Maldonado was selected as Lt Guv and he said he would consider running. Keeley, Laird and Monning…wow! That would be a race.As our great Professor tells us as he excuses us….peace, love and good vibes…signing off