Cross-posted from the CA League of Conservation Voters (CLCV) blog, Groundswell. 

By Mike Young and Beth Gunston

Late Wednesday, CLCV-endorsed candidate Assemblymember Bill Monning was greeted with some fantastic news: Senator Sam Blakeslee announced that he will not seek re-election. Despite being the incumbent, Blakeslee decided that defending his seat would not be worth the effort since decennial redistricting shifted this coastal district to a new 16% Democratic registration advantage. If that were not insurmountable enough, much of the new district that stretches from Santa Cruz to San Luis Obespo overlaps areas that Monning currently represents in the Assembly.  

In 2010, it was largely argued that Blakeslee only won his race against Democrat candidate and environmental champion John Laird because then-Governor Schwarzenegger made that contest a special election where Democratic voters tend to have extremely low turnout. Whether that's true or not, Blakeslee felt he had no viable chance this time around. Without a serious primary challenger and with the incumbent ducking out, Monning is in a great position to essentially walk into the seat. This will be a big pick-up for the environment. Monning (100% CLCV score) will be a much needed breath of fresh air from Blakeslee (21% CLCV score), especially in the Senate where environmental priorities have had a much more difficult time passing.  Monning is well regarded for his environmental health work around toxics and pesticides, and has been specifically outspoken about the recent introduction of methyl iodide in the state.

But while Monning’s expected win is a great for the environment, it's time to look this gift horse in the mouth. With little hope of a contender to pit against Monning, the polluter interests that helped Blakeslee win in 2010 will likely now spend their money to defeat a more vulnerable target: state Senator Fran Pavley. Pavley, an environmental leader who authored California's landmark global warming laws, has a much more difficult race this year as redistricting has put her in a Senate seat against Tony Strickland with a very narrow registration advantage. In 2008, despite his 2% record on the environment including countless votes against bills to increase renewable energy, Strickland reinvented himself as a renewable energy expert and narrowly won his current Senate seat. With environmental advocates just one seat away from a two-thirds supermajority in the Senate and environmental champion Fran Pavley potentially being ousted, you can bet big polluters will spend more heavily on this race than any others.

So while the prospects for Bill Monning look fantastic, the consequence may be that we will need to work even harder to protect Fran Pavley. Still, much can change between now and Election Day, and nobody quite knows how the top two primary system will change the political landscape. All we know for sure is that in 2012 we must remain vigilant and work towards electing an environmental majority in the Senate. That way we’ll be more likely to pass bold environmental laws along with a balanced budget, taxes, and fees to keep our state moving forward in the years to come.

We’re waiting for results in the SD-15 race.  Here is the Secretary of State’s webpage for the race. Here’s the first batch:

Jim Fitzgerald 5606 5.8%

Mark Hinkle 1874 2.0%

John Laird 39857 41.5%

Sam Blakeslee 48617 50.7%

UPDATE by Robert: Returns are slowly being updated by the five counties. Here’s the latest, as of 10:16 pm:

Jim Fitzgerald 7277 5.6%

Mark Hinkle 2811 2.1%

John Laird 56653 43.2%

Sam Blakeslee 64352 49.1%

UPDATE by Brian: As of 12:07 AM, with 100% of precincts reporting:

Jim Fitzgerald 8014 5.1%

Mark Hinkle 3162 2.0%

John Laird 69649 44.1%

Sam Blakeslee 77107 48.8%

Sam Blakeslee will be the next Senator in SD-15.  Arnold’s gamesmanship worked like a charm.  By moving this election away from a real election date, he got what he wanted.  From the look of these numbers, I think we have a great shot of winning this election if it was held concurrently with the general in November.  I hope he’s going to pay the extra money that it took to win this seat for Blakeslee out of his own pocket.  

Today’s the day.  Well, not really today so much as the last few weeks have culminated with today.  Though it doesn’t really feel like an election day, today is the official election day along the central coast in the skirmish to replace St. Abel Maldonado since he was called up appointed to be the Lt. Governor.

Residents from Santa Clara County to Santa Barbara County — including Saratoga, Los Gatos, Almaden Valley and Morgan Hill — are choosing a replacement for former state Sen. Abel Maldonado, who was appointed lieutenant governor earlier this year.

Though the winner of ?today’s Senate race could help shape the outcome of the state’s muddled budget negotiations, the oddly-timed summer election is not likely to draw a high turnout.(SJ Merc)

I cannot stress enough the importance of electing John to the Senate. Beyond the numbers game in the Senate, which is plainly critical, John is the right person for the job.  He has the experience that we need, his work with the budget in the Assembly was superb.  And he is the kind of person, honest and hard-working that the legislature needs more of.  

If you know anybody in the district (PDF), please call them to make sure they have voted. If you are near the district, stop in to one of the campaign offices to help out.  And, you can always watch the twitter feed.

I attended a John Laird fundraiser in San Francisco today, which truth be told, are always some of the more enjoyable of these events.  Mostly because John is just one of the most unassuming, friendly guys you’ll ever meet. He works hard at his job, and takes his role in government very seriously. He works for his constituents by being available, and he does for the entire state.

He was ultimately able to make this endorsement public today, and the room was pretty enthusiastic upon hearing the good news.  Apparently, John is the only candidate below Congressional level to get the President’s stamp of approval. Kudos to Team Laird for making it happen. These doorhangers are going out to voters across the very long district. It runs from Santa Clara district in the North all the way down to Santa Barbara County.

You can visit the John Laird website for more information and ways you can help out. They are doing a nice virtual phonebank program if you can’t get down to the district.  But nothing replaces some good ol’ fashioned door-knocking, especially in a race that will be determined by turnout. So, if you can make a trip this weekend or next, I’d highly recommend it.

I really can’t be effusive enough about my respect and admiration for John Laird.  So, I was a bit disappointed to see Sam Blakeslee top the first round of voting.  And he is frightfully close to the magic 50%. Right now he’s sitting on 49.7% of the vote with all precincts reporting.  

Assuming that holds up we will have a run-off. With exactly the same candidates. Yes, you read that right. Because in special elections, every party leader goes to the general election, we’ll be seeing the same four candidates in the race. And turnout will be exceedingly low again.

So, in the next three months, we’ll need to work harder to claw back those 10,000 votes and turn out our voters.  Surely if we would consolidate this election with the general election, like it should be, we would be in a solid position come November.  However, Arnold chose to waste the money for another special election, so we will need to work ever harder to push John Laird over the top.

Back in 2008, Tony Strickland ran something of an interesting campaign to defeat Hannah-Beth Jackson.  He ran as a neo-environmentalist.  His mail was all about Green energy, and how he has quite the record in developing said energy.

Of course, you’d have to consider some pretty dirty energy to be “clean” to buy that. However, Strickland snuck through by a few thousand votes as enough people bought the hype.

Now, fast forward to today, and it’s all being run over again. This time it is Sam Blakeslee, the man who has consistently taken Big Oil dollars trying to make himself all clean and green.  It’s a tough task to be sure.

But CalBuzz goes ahead and punches the holes out of that story:

The blunt truth of the matter, however, may be found in 1) the lavish oil industry contributions shoveled into committees that have forked out more than $1 million to back Blakeslee’s play in the 15th State Senate district and 2)  the photograph posted at the top of this story, which shows exactly where the San Luis Obispo GOP assemblyman stood on offshore oil drilling in California – before that whole Gulf of Mexico thing made it really, really unfashionable. (CalBuzz)

As John Laird pointed out about his election, this truly is critical.  We’ll likely see Laird and Blakeslee in the runoff, but this is where we must start to tell Central Coast voters the real story. Fortunately, the CDP has gotten a virtual phone bank system up and running, so now’s the time.  The election is Tuesday, let’s push John Laird over the top.  Heck, maybe we can even avoid that runoff…

“Well”, I says to myself.  “The seniors sure don’t like John Laird much.”   I had just listened to a radio ad hitting John Laird in his race for the Special 15th Senate District.  Something about budgets and spending and salaries and expenses.  Standard hit.  Nothing special.  But I was struck at the end by the sponsors of the ad:  The California Senior Advocates League.  I’ve been worried recently about my father who is in a senior center,so I’m glad to learn that there is a League that advocates for him.  Who are these guys and is it possible they could help my father?

So I looked them up and it turns out that the California Senior Advocates League has only been advocating for seniors for a couple of weeks.  Mostly they have been advocating for seniors by sending out mailings against Mary Salas who is running in the Democratic Primary in the 40th State Senate District.  They are apparently branching out by hitting John Laird also.

But who are these kindly older people who make up the California Senior Advocates.  There are only two donors:  JOBSPAC, A Bi-partisan Coalition of CA Employers and Put California Back to Work, Sponsored by the Civil Justice Assn of California.  So is that it?  These guys want to advocate for seniors by putting them back to work?  I’ll have to check with Dad, but I don’t know that he wants to go back to work–depending of course on the job.

And who is this Civil Justice Association?  And why do they want to put seniors back to work?  I looked them up and it turns out that the “Put California Back to Work, Sponsored by the Civil Justice Assn of California” is filled with some pretty great groups including, CA Alliance for Progress and Education (I am for progress and I am for education); Californians for Balance and Fairness in the Civil Justice System (I love balance and fairness); Californians for Jobs and a Strong Economy (you betcha); Diversity PAC (is this like LGBT?); JOBSPAC (wait…they are the senior partner of the Senior Advocates!); a whole bunch of insurance companies.

So it seems that JOBSPAC is the real player here.  Who exactly is JOBSPAC?  They are a virtual Who’s Who of big business.  A candidate might be shy about getting money from Phillip Morris, but they are less shy about getting money from JOBSPAC.  So Phillip Morris and Anthem Blue Cross and Chevron and the Pharmaceutical Industry contribute to JOBSPAC and the politicians they support are not tarnished by the unseemliness of taking money from companies from big business.

The easy answer is for business to hide behind JOBSPAC.  Some think that JOBSPAC is just too controversial so they hide behind these little pop up PACs like “Put California Back to Work” and “California Senior Advocates”.  I want to know the process of developing the names.  Is it like a drinking game?  Do lobbyists get cash prizes for coming up with the most ironic and cynical names of organizations?  

Actually, I think they do.

Secretary Bowen tweets:

Abel Maldonado sworn in today as Lt Gov, meaning SD15 needs a special election. And Governor just proclaimed it: 6/22 primary, 8/17 general.

That means: less than four months to build a campaign that can prevail in a very winnable special election with a not insignificant Democratic registration advantage.