Although California Republicans want us to believe that Martha Coakley’s loss in Massachusetts this week is somehow a sign that Barbara Boxer is going to suffer the same fate, the facts prove otherwise. The latest Field Poll shows Boxer still leads her opponents by decent if still uncomfortably close margins:
General:
Boxer 48%
Campbell 38%Boxer 50%
Fiorina 35%Boxer 51%
DeVore 34%
Boxer is hovering around 50%, so she’s not a shoo-in for reelection by any means. But she knows she has to run the campaign of her life to win, and that’s exactly what she is going to do.
On the Republican side, it looks increasingly clear that Tom Campbell’s decision to jump to the Senate race was the right one, as he has a clear lead over his rivals:
GOP Primary:
Campbell 30%
Fiorina 25%
DeVore 6%
Undecided 39%
What’s so interesting here, aside from the fact that 40% of the wingnuts are undecided, is how poorly Chuck DeVore is faring. He was the great teabagger hope here in California, with endorsements from the rest of the Sacramento Republicans and strong support from the activist base. But he still only manages 6%! It’s a sign that California Republicanism, for all its truly insane far-right activists, remains a creature of corporate power.
No matter who wins their primary, they’ll face a formidable candidate in the form of Barbara Boxer. This election will be decided on the basis of turnout, something I certainly hope the Boxer campaign understands. Large segments of the progressive base are demoralized, even in California. Boxer has earned their support and activism in the past, and she can certainly do so again. Assuming she does, the Republican candidates are going to have a very tough time beating her in November.
This is the same pattern with every Boxer election. She has solid but not overpowering numbers at the beginning of the race and closes the deal in the end.
There’s no reason to think that someone that’s been reelected as many times as Boxer is anything like Coakley. This is not saying it can’t happen, but just that there’s no evidence that this time around is any different than any of the other senate elections in this state since 1992.
but, as Robert points out, “California Republicanism, for all its truly insane far-right activists, remains a creature of corporate power.”
That corporate power just got a hell of a lot stronger today. With large corporate money more freely available to support coal, oil, Westlands water district and maybe another 20 initiatives for November… the rest of us may not have much of a chance. Already, I hear Cable Talking Heads (and not on Fox) asking whether or not CA is the next MA.
Here we go with Chevron energy jobs ads. How about Merk (and when I worked in NJ, they were the most honorable of big pharma cos.) written health care? I need to get one of those ad suppression filters for my TV.
Maybe Inhofe may prove to have been right. Maybe climate change issue is over and he really did win. Still at least @drgrist is lauding Boxer for taking on Murkowski’s Bad Air Bill.