Remember back to early June when Carly Fiorina called climate change “the weather”? Well, it seems that while Carly might have impressed the GOP base with that message, it’s not really a winning message for the general electorate.
PPIC just released its “Californians and the environment” poll, and while the numbers could be better for Boxer, who is leading Fiorina by a 39-34 tally, there is still a lot to like here. A few tidbits:
- The Weather: Two-thirds (67%) favor AB 32. However, 42% would favor Prop 23’s goal of holding off until we hit better job figures(53% oppose). Of course, this is why Dan Logue’s measure plugs in this ridiculous 5.5% unemployment number for several quarters. He wants to kill AB 32, but doesn’t want to say that flat out. So, he’ll use some artificial threshold (actually below what most economists consider to be equilibrium for unemployment) and put lipstick on that pig.
In the end, even the lipstick is only producing a modest uptick.
- More Climate Change: Also of concern to Logue must be the numbers of Californians that think AB 32 will not hurt our jobs numbers. 45% think it will result in more jobs, with only 23% saying fewer jobs. Further, 48% of Californians say the state isn’t doing enough to combat climate change (52% for the feds). This electorate flat out does not look prepared to overturn AB 32.
- Carbon Tax: It turns out that most people haven’t heard the details of the proposals. But when they do, they know how the world really works. After hearing brief descriptions of cap and trade and a carbon tax, 60% said they would support the carbon tax, with only 50% supporting the cap and trade.
- Off-shore Drilling: Rather unsurprisingly, this is where Mother Nature made her biggest public opinion gains. Most Californians now oppose more offshore drilling (59% oppose, 36% favor)-a 16-point increase in opposition from last year (43% oppose, 51% favor). Also coming from the land of Obvious, very few people trust the government’s response to the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
Of course, PPIC also did some political numbers. I mentioned Boxer’s 39-34 lead, but Brown also holds a small lead at 37-34. I’ll have to say that these numbers should start concerning Whitman soon. Brown hasn’t really done much to combat all of her TV spending, and he’s still got himself in a decent position. When Brown goes up, you have to figure these numbers only move in his direction. Oh, and the state still really dislikes Arnold (25% approval) and the Legislature (15%).
There is a lot of work to do not only for November, but also for the greater theme of protecting the environment. But, all in all, I am rather encouraged by these numbers. If we are able to muster some sort of a field campaign, California might just end up as a bright spot for Democrats in the 2010 elections.