Prop	September (Yes-No-D/K)	July
19(Cannabis)	49-42-9	44-48-8
23(Climate)	34-45-21	36-48-16
25(Majority)	46-30-24	65-20-15

Field is out with another poll today, this time featuring the three most watched propositions.  As you can see on the right, the news is generally pretty good, but there is a lot of doubt left for the next five weeks.  

The movement on these measures results more from people becoming more engaged in the election, as there hasn’t been any substantial paid media in any of these campaigns.  Starting with Prop 19, the measure to legalize and tax marijuana has now moved into a small lead. The push to 49 is actually pressing that big 50% borderline.  Generally, when looking at a measure, they need to have that 50% when heading into the 4 weeks of the election.  When voters get to a measure that they haven’t really decided upon, the first inclination is to vote no.  So, you have to figure undecideds break at least 2 to 1 for No.  This might be enough to push Prop 19 over that magical 50% come Nov. 2, but it is going to come down to the wire.

On the other hand, the numbers on Prop 23 are fairly encouraging, especially considering the results of a recent LA Times poll showing a 40-38 lead for Prop 23.  I think what we can surmise from these very different poll positions is that a) Prop 23 is fairly complicated and b) how you ask the question will make a huge difference.  Here are the two questions:

Field: Proposition 23 suspends implementation of the air pollution law, AB 32, requiring major sources of emissions to report and reduce greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming until unemployment drops to 5.5 percent or less for a full year. Fiscal impact: Likely modest net increase in overall economic activity from suspension of greenhouse gases regulatory activity, resulting in a potentially significant net increase in state and local revenues. If the election were being held today, would you vote YES or NO on Proposition 23?

LA Times: As you may know, in the elections in November, there will be a ballot proposition that, if passed, would suspend the state law aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions until the state’s unemployment rate falls below five and a half percent. Do you favor or oppose passing this ballot initiative?

The Field question was a lot more detailed, but also a lot closer to the actual ballot description of the measure.  You have to think that is an optimistic sign. Also somewhat interestingly, Prop 23 does better among Democrats than DTS and others, 29% of Dems support it, and only 26% of DTS/others.

Prop 25, the majority vote measure took a big dive in support, as is normally the case for measures that dramatically change our system.  However, the recent ads for the measure advertising it as a punishment for legislators on late budgets might just be enough to push it over the hill.  However, don’t expect the other side to lie down on this one. They’ve already spent a big pile of cash on it, and will likely spend several million more before Nov. 2.

Now, as the prop campaign really begins in earnest, we will see how soft the support for these measures really is.  In the end, it is going to be about turnout though.  Will people turn out to support Prop 19 and oppose Prop 23?  Both promise to be strong turnout forces for progressive California voters, but whether it is enough is still an outstanding question.