The Democratic rally continues – after a series of polls this week showing Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown with leads, the LA Times/USC poll (conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner) shows a sizable lead for Boxer, and a narrow lead for Brown. Note that these numbers are for likely voters.
Governor
Jerry Brown: 49
Meg Whitman: 44
US Senate
Barbara Boxer: 51
Carly Fiorina: 43
The crosstabs are interesting, as usual. Whitman has a minus 11 favorable rating, whereas Brown only has a minus 1 rating. Boxer has a +4 favorable rating, compared to a minus 5 rating for Fiorina.
The poll shows both Brown and Boxer with small leads among white voters, and much larger leads among Latino voters.
Significantly, the poll also shows that by a fairly wide margin, voters believe Meg Whitman would be better on the economy and is better on “has new ideas to help California.” And yet that isn’t overcoming the negative perception voters now have of Meg Whitman, as her massive TV ad barrage, her lack of a voting record, and her massive wealth are turning voters against her in droves.
We need to keep in mind that there are still five weeks left to Election Day – and anything can happen until then, especially in races as close as these. Still, this should give hope and inspiration to progressive Californians that our future might not be in the hands of right-wing billionaires after all.
The 50+ number is very encouraging.
shows a sizable lead for Boxer, and a narrow lead for Brown. Note that these numbers are for likely voters.
Governor
Jerry Brown: 49
Meg Whitman: 42
US Senate
Barbara Boxer: 51
Carly Fiorina: 43
It’s actually 44 for Whitman. But…when did 8 points become
a sizeable lead and 5 points a narrow one (given that, with rounding, it could be a 7.5 difference to a 5.5 difference).
The difference between these numbers if maybe 20 voters (out of 800 or so likely).
Polls are best interpretted as snapshots on the electorate. All the polls show Brown tied or with a lead and Box with a somewhat larger lead. Fiorina is obviously the weaker candidate (they have her bragging about outsourcing in the Boxer add, and she was canned by HP,
whereas Whitman has avoided the incendiary quotes of Fiorina and also left EBay better off financially). The question
is whether Brown is stronger than Boxer? I would say so,
marginally, since people like attorney general’s (Boxer’s
hair’s a lot better, no matter what Fiornia says).
This ties in with everything else I have been seeing. No matter how much money Queen Meg and Ms. Fiorina spend, they are still ceonistas in a year when people are sick to death of the ultra-rich and their crony capitalism.
Boxer is pitch perfect on her message. Brown – not so much.
Brown has an incredible story that plays perfectly against Meg’s arrogance – if he ever bothers to communicate it.