(Interesting – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

Cross posted on my blog: http://racesandredistricting.b… which you should visit for more redistricting maps and election analysis.

Before November 2nd 2010, it appeared that Democrats would control the redistricting process because most polls suggested Jerry Brown (D) would become Governor. Brown did win and the Democrats retained their majorities in the state legislature. They, however, lost control of the redistricting process. The voters passed Proposition 20 which transferred the redistricting power from the state legislature to a 14 member commission compromised of 5 Democrats, 5 Republicans and 4 independents. The commission must draw districts according to communities of interest which are similar communities based on the residents’ ethnicities, location and income. Drawing districts according to the VRA is more important though on the priority list. Also, at least three members of each party must approve the map before it takes effect. Even if Democrats do not control redistricting the way they used to, they will certainly propose some maps to the committee that will protect Democratic incumbents and eliminate a few Republicans who are in gerrymandered districts. Although the Democrats crafted the 2002 map as a bipartisan plan, the lines resemble a Republican gerrymander. For example, San Bernardino and Riverside County both cast narrow majorities for Obama and have about 5 districts between them. A Democrat only holds one of those districts. The Democrat is Joe Baca (D) but his district does not even touch Riverside County. So Riverside County which voted for Obama and has enough people for nearly three districts does not even have a Democratic representative. Also, Orange County voted for McCain by three points and has around 3 million people, enough population for almost five districts. How many Democratic districts cover at least part of Orange County? The answer is only one: the 47th district represented by Loretta Sanchez (D) which covers Santa Ana and Anaheim. Although Democrats worry that the independent commission will carve up districts leaving Democratic incumbents with no familiar territory, Democrats should not be too worried. The commission likely will weaken many Republicans too.

This leads to why I am drawing this map and it is because I am predicting what the Democrats will propose to the commission. Although the commission makes the final decision, both parties will draw up proposals suggesting what the commission should do. For the Democrats, their proposal needs to protect their incumbents, create more opportunities in the Inland Empire and Central Valley while not drawing convoluted lines. Also, my proposal respects the VRA which requires a certain number of minority majority districts in order to ensure minorities are not underrepresented in the House. For example, I made the 15th and 32nd districts with Asian representatives more Asian. I also created three new districts designed to elect Hispanics because California’s Hispanic population is growing rapidly and will need representation. Also, California’s Hispanic population is 36% and there are only 8 Hispanic representatives in 53 congressional districts. The problem is that Hispanic turnout rates are low so districts with a Hispanic percentage of 51% will not have enough Hispanic voters to elect a Hispanic representative. If the district is Democratic but has Republican white voters though, there can be enough Hispanics in the Democratic primary to elect a Hispanic candidate. Some of my districts have low Hispanic populations but the population numbers are from ten years ago so the Hispanic population should be larger. I also created 29 Safe Democratic seats, three Likely Democratic seats, five lean Democratic seats, three Toss Up seats, one Lean Republican seat, two Likely Republican seats (these could be competitive in a few years if demographic trends continue) and ten Safe Republican seats. I wanted to create more seats for the Democrats but I did not want convoluted lines because the commission will reject those. Anyway, here are some helpful links and the maps:  

A side note: this is an updated version of the California map I drew in February. This map includes updated demographic information as well as some different lines. The old version of my map can be found here: http://frogandturtle.blogspot….

Current maps of California’s congressional districts: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/p…

A few notes: if you want a better picture of the maps, click on them.  Old Demographics means the demographics of the old districts. “Change” represents how the partisan makeup of the district is compared to the old lines.

Northern California

California’s 1st Congressional District Mike Thompson (D) Blue

Obama 194,639 64%, McCain 99,977 33%

Change: McCain +4

Demographics: 6.1% Asian, 23.7% Hispanic, 62.9% White

Demographics VAP: 6.4% Asian, 19.8% Hispanic, 67.3% White

Old Demographics: 17% Hispanic, 71% White

Communities of Interest: Eureka, Clear Lake, Napa

Status: Safe Democratic

Mike Thompson’s district becomes a few points more Republican with the loss of some Sonoma County towns and the addition of Republican Colusa County. Those changes are not significant population wise and the Democratic counties of Yolo, Napa, Sonoma, Mendocino and Humboldt keep this district safe for Thompson.

California’s 2nd Congressional District Wally Herger (R) Green

Obama 121,124 42%, McCain 161,724 56%

Change: McCain +3

Demographics: 4.3% Asian, 17.1% Hispanic, 71.9% White

Demographics VAP: 4.1% Asian, 14.1% Hispanic, 75.8% White

Old Demographics: 14% Hispanic, 76% White

Communities of Interest: Redding, Chico, Yuba City

Status: Safe Republican

The district undergoes some geographical changes but the politics and the demographics of the district do not change much. The district loses Trinity, Colusa and Glenn Counties to the 1st but picks up Modoc, Lassen, Plumas and Sierra Counties to the east. Those counties make the district a bit more Republican but it was already safe for its representative who called a right wing terrorist a “Great American.” It also remains compact.



Sacramento Area

California’s 3rd Congressional District Dan Lungren (R) Purple

Obama 144,966 52%, McCain 131,111 47%

Change: Obama +5

Demographics: 7.2% African American, 10.2% Asian, 18.2% Hispanic, 59.5% White

Demographics VAP: 6.9% African American, 10.2% Asian, 15.3% Hispanic, 63.7% White

Old Demographics: 4% African American, 6% Asian, 10% Hispanic, 74% White

Communities of Interest: Citrus Heights, Folsom

Status: Toss Up

In 2008 and 2010, Democrats believed they had the candidate to beat Lungren but he held onto his seat. He won by seven points in 2010 against Ami Bera (D), a strong candidate in a strong Republican year. 2012 should be a neutral year at best for Republicans. Bera announced that he will run for Lungren’s seat so Democrats already have a strong candidate. The district is more Democratic now because the district is entirely in Sacramento County. It used to contain some Republican leaning rural counties but by losing those, the district becomes more Democratic.

California’s 4th Congressional District Tom McClintock (R) Red

Obama 154,066 45%, McCain 184,422 53%

Change: Obama +2

Demographics: 4.7% Asian, 13.3% Hispanic, 76.8% White

Old Demographics: 9% Hispanic, 83% White

Demographics VAP: 4.6% Asain, 11.0% Hispanic, 80.1% White

Communities of Interest: Roseville, Auburn, Nevada City

Status: Safe Republican

The district appears to undergo major changes by losing some northern rural counties but it actually keeps most of its residents. It becomes more of a Sacramento suburban district than a northern rural district though. It picks up rural parts of Yuba County and retains suburban Placer and El Dorado Counties while losing heavily Republican counties in northeast California. McClintock had a tough race here in 2008 and although the district becomes two points more Democratic, McClintock should be safe.

California’s 5th Congressional District Doris Matsui (D) Yellow

Obama 170,015 67%, McCain 80,493 32%

Change: McCain +7

Demographics: 12.6% African American, 19.8% Asian, 24.8% Hispanic, 37.2% White

Demographics VAP: 12.2% African American, 20.1% Asian, 21.5% Hispanic, 41.9% White

Old Demographics: 14% African American, 15% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 43% White

Communities of Interest: Sacramento, Elk Grove

Status: Safe Democratic

Matsui’s district remains similar to its current configuration. It retains heavily minority and Democratic parts of Sacramento County. The only significant difference is that I extended her district up to the northern Sacramento County border to pick up some Republican areas to weaken the 3rd. Matsui’s district is completely safe for her and she is too popular for a successful primary challenge.

Bay Area

California’s 6th Congressional District Lynn Woolsey (D) Teal

Obama 266,842 76%, McCain 79,189 23%

Change: McCain +1

Demographics: 4.7% Asian, 21.4% Hispanic, 68.5% White

Old Demographics: 15% Hispanic, 76% White

Communities of Interest: Novato, San Rafael, Santa Rosa

Status: Safe Democratic

Besides losing the Mendocino County border and picking up the Sonoma Valley, the 6th district does not change much. It remains very white and heavily Democratic. The commission’s new map may look different though regarding the 6th district. There are proposals to eliminate the 6th district by putting Sonoma in the 1st district and Marin County in the 8th district. This violates communities of interest though because Marin County and Sonoma Counties are upscale suburban communities while San Francisco is a dense urban area. Also, the commission must try not to break county lines and in this situation, the 8th district crosses the SF/Marin County line although San Francisco has more than enough people for one district. Also, a district combining Marin and San Francisco relies on water contiguity which many critics view as unfair. Also, putting Santa Rosa in the 1st district violates communities of interest for that district too because Santa Rosa is an urban community which is different from the current 1st district which is filled with small cities and rural areas. One may argue that the Sonoma County district should extend east to make it more urban but population purposes would cause Vallejo to go into the same district as Santa Rosa. Vallejo is a lower income area and has more similar economic interests and connections with the East Bay than Santa Rosa. Therefore, it appears that the only option to satisfy communities of interest is to keep the 6th district as an upscale suburban district, not a district that combines urban and suburban communities that are not even connected by land. Also, it is important to give the 1st district similar lines to the one on my map because it will retain its characteristic of rural areas and small cities.

California’s 7th Congressional district George Miller (D) Gray

Obama 205,912 66%, McCain 100,000 32%

Change: McCain +11

Demographics: 5.9% African American, 16.2% Asian, 19.9% Hispanic, 53.7% White

Demographics 18+: 5.7% African American, 16.4% Asian, 17.3% Hispanic, 57.4% White

Old Demographics: 17% African American, 13% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 43% White

Communities of Interest: Pinole, Martinez, Danville

Status: Safe Democratic

Miller’s district becomes less Democratic by losing all of its territory except for Pinole, Concord, Pittsburg and Martinez (his home.) I had to move Richmond out of his district to boost the African American population of the 9th district. I do not know if Miller will like running under these new lines that now include Lafayette, Walnut Creek and Danville. Even though this is the Democrats’ proposal, they will have to make the lines compact for the commission to even consider the proposal. Anyway, this district is too Democratic for a Republican to win because Obama won 66% here which is higher than his statewide average of 61%. Also, no other representative lives in this district so Miller should not face a primary challenge.

San Francisco/Oakland

California’s 8th Congressional District Nancy Pelosi (D) Slate Blue

Obama 282,175 85%, McCain 42,836 13%

Change: McCain +1

Demographics: 6.4% African American, 16.3% Hispanic, 30.9% Asian, 42.6% White

Demographics 18+: 6.2% African American, 15.0% Hispanic, 30.8% Asian, 45.0% White

Old Demographics: 9% African American, 29% Asian, 16% Hispanic, 43% White

Communities of Interest: San Francisco

Status: Safe Democratic

Pelosi’s district picks up a few precincts in the eastern Sunset District and her district extends to the 19th Ave’s eastern border. Besides this change, her district retains its current form.

California’s 9th District Barbara Lee (D) Periwinkle

Obama 281,944 90%, McCain 24,082 8%

Change: Obama +4

Demographics: 21.8% African American, 17.6% Asian, 25.2% Hispanic, 31.0% White

Demographics 18+: 21.7% African American, 18.8% Asian, 21.6% Hispanic, 34.3% White

Old Demographics: 26% African American, 15% Asian, 19% Hispanic, 35% White

Communities of Interest: Richmond, Berkeley, Oakland

Status: Safe Democratic

Lee’s district does change a bit as it loses a few Hispanic neighborhoods in South Oakland. Her district’s population growth was minimal so it needed to pick up people. It moved north into Contra Costa County to pick up Richmond with a large African American population. Although Lee should be reelected, she will want a high African American population. Her district will get 2 points more African American and it will be even more Democratic.

California’s 10th Congressional District John Garamendi (D) Deepink

Obama 163,340 60%, McCain 106,442 39%

Change: McCain +10

Demographics: 11.2% African American, 11.9% Asian, 26.9% Hispanic, 44.9% White

Demographics 18+: 11.2% African American, 12.6% Asian, 23.0% Hispanic, 49.3% White

Old Demographics: 6% African American, 9% Asian, 15% Hispanic, 65% White

Communities of Interest: Vallejo, Fairfield, Pittsburg

Status: Safe Democratic

Garamendi’s district picks up Vallejo in Solano County. It loses Livermore which voted for Bush in 2004, and the 10th district loses the Walnut Creek area. To compensate for the loss of those areas, the 10th district picks up all of Solano County including heavily Democratic Vallejo. The 10th district also picks up more Central Valley territory because the population growth in the Bay Area is slower than the rest of the state and I needed to push the districts further east to make sure the districts had equal populations. Picking up Lodi to protect McNerney in the 11th district who won by only one point in 2010 does make the 10th district a couple points more Republican. A 60% Obama percentage is high enough to keep Garamendi safe though. Also, Obama did well in the Walnut Creek area formerly in the 10th district but many of the voters there can swing to Republicans. The Democrats in Vallejo which I moved into the 10th district usually stick with the Democratic ticket though.

California’s 11th District Jerry McNerney (D) Chartreuse

Obama 117,947 56% McCain 87,870 42%

Change: Obama +4

Demographics: 7.4% African American, 14.4% Asian, 38.2% Hispanic, 36.0% White

Demographics 18+: 7.3% African American, 14.8% Asian, 33.5% Hispanic, 41.1% White

Old Demographics: 3% African American, 9% Asian, 20% Hispanic, 64% White

Communities of Interest: Tracy, Stockton, Modesto

Status: Lean Democratic

At a first glance, it appears that McNerney’s district becomes more Republican because it loses all of its territory in Democratic Contra Costa, Alameda and Santa Clara Counties. McNerney’s district becomes four points more Democratic though with the addition of Democratic parts of Stockton, the removal of Lodi and the addition of Democratic parts of Modesto. I did not want to county split here but for population purposes, I had to do so. McNerney should still face challenges but if he could survive in a more Republican district in a very Republican year, he should win in this new district. Also, San Joaquin County which makes up a large portion of his district is trending Democratic quickly as Bay Area residents move into the Central Valley.

California’s 12th District Jackie Speier (D) Cornflower

Obama 221,611 74%, McCain 71,441 24%

Change: McCain +0

Demographics: 32.2% Asian, 21.5% Hispanic, 40.3% White

Demographics 18+: 33.0% Asian, 19.3% Hispanic, 42.7% White

Old Demographics: 29% Asian, 16% Hispanic, 48% White

Communities of Interest: South San Francisco, Redwood City, Half Moon Bay

Status: Safe Democratic

Speier’s district shifts a bit south. She loses a few neighborhoods in SF but picks up some Hispanic neighborhoods in Redwood City. She also picks up Half Moon Bay and all of rural San Mateo County. These changes do not significantly alter her Democratic district.

California’s 13th District Pete Stark (D) Darksalmon

Obama 192,824 70%, McCain 68,594 28%

Change: McCain +8

Demographics: 7.8% African American, 25.3% Asian, 25.3% Hispanic, 37.1% White

Demographics 18+: 7.7% African American, 22.4% Hispanic, 25.8% Asian, 40.6% White

Old Demographics: 6% African American, 28% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 38% White

Communities of Interest: San Leandro, Fremont, Pleasanton

Status: Safe Democratic

Stark’s district gets a few points more Republican with the addition of Dublin, Pleasanton and Livermore. I did not want to connect Stark’s district with those areas because they are not very similar communities but the 13th district follows Route 580 to connect them. Anyway, the district still stays heavily Democratic and safe for Stark.

San Jose

California’s 14th District Anna Eshoo (D) Olive

Obama 218,686 71% McCain 82,344 27%

Change: McCain +4

Demographics: 23.5% Asian, 18.5% Hispanic, 51.6% White

Demographics 18+: 23.7% Asian, 16.2% Hispanic, 54.7% White

Old Demographics: 16% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 59% White

Communities of Interest: Mountain View, Saratoga, San Jose

Status: Safe Democratic

Eshoo’s district becomes a few points more Republican by losing northern Santa Cruz County and picking up western San Jose. Yes, I understand that Tom Campbell (R) held a district in the 1990’s similar to this one. The 14th district has trended Democratic rapidly though in the last ten years and Obama won 71% of the vote here. Eshoo should have absolutely no worries, even if Campbell decided to run.

California’s 15th District Mike Honda (D) Darkorange

Obama 171,018 70% McCain 68,779 28%

Change: Obama +4

Demographics: 50.5% Asian, 16.6% Hispanic, 26.3% White

Demographics 18+: 50.0% Asian, 14.9% Hispanic, 29.5% White

Old Demographics: 29% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 47% White

Communities of Interest: Fremont, Cupertino, San Jose

Status: Safe Democratic

This district becomes more Asian by losing white neighborhoods in San Jose while picking up Asian neighborhoods in Fremont and Sunnyvale. It also picks up a few Asian neighborhoods south of Milpitas. These changes make the district an Asian majority district. The commission has 5 Asians so I expect they will create some districts that will elect Asians such as this one. Honda is Asian but the Asian population in this district increases the chance that his successor will be too. If current population trends continue, his district will have an even larger Asian population as the decade progresses.

California’s 16th Congressional District Zoe Lofgren (D) Lime

Obama 164,245 69%, McCain 69,832 29%

Change: McCain +1

Demographics: 26.1% Asian, 40.9% Hispanic, 27.1% White

Demographics 18+: 27.3% Asian, 36.7% Hispanic, 30.6% White

Old Demographics: 23% Asian, 38% Hispanic, 31% White

Communities of Interest: San Jose, Gilroy, Morgan Hill

Status: Safe Democratic

Lofgren’s district does not become less Democratic or Republican but an issue arises. Her district gets a few points more Hispanic and with her district’s growing Hispanic population, she may face a primary challenge from a Hispanic. Lofgren should win though because she is familiar with most of the 16th district’s voters and the Hispanic population is still not high enough to unseat her. If she retires in a few years, Hispanics will have a big chance to elect a representative here. Anyway, she gets new territory in Hispanic Gilroy and Morgan Hill. Her district keeps communities of interest though by staying within the county boundaries.

Central California

California’s 17th District Sam Farr (D) Darkslateblue

Obama 192,791 71%, McCain 71,552 26%

Change: McCain +2

Demographics: 5.3% Asian, 45.5% Hispanic, 44.3% White

Demographics 18+: 5.9% Asian, 39.5% Hispanic, 49.9% White

Old Demographics: 5% Asian, 43% Hispanic, 46% White

Communities of Interest: Santa Cruz, Monterey

Status: Safe Democratic

Farr’s district becomes a few points more Republican but remains very safe. It is still a compact district containing all of Monterey and Santa Cruz Counties while taking a small slice of San Luis Obispo County. The district loses all of agricultural San Benito County to the agricultural 18th district. The 17th picks up Republican leaning Paso Robles because it is in the Salinas Valley which is a community of interest in Monterey County. This also keeps Paso Robles out of the 23rd district.

California’s 18th District Dennis Cardoza (D) Yellow

Obama 104,557 56%, McCain 78,223 42%

Change: McCain +6

Demographics: 5.4% Asian, 57.3% Hispanic, 32.0% White

Demographics 18+: 5.7% Asian, 51.8% Hispanic, 37.3% White

Old Demographics: 6% African American, 9% Asian, 42% Hispanic, 39% White

Communities of Interest: Hollister, Modesto, Merced

Status: Lean Democratic

Cardoza’s district becomes more Republican because the commission will want it to have compact lines. Thus, it will lose the finger into heavily Democratic Stockton. To compensate for the loss, the 18th district will go over the Diablo Range through Pacheco Pass to pick up San Benito County which is mostly agricultural like the rest of the district and leans Democratic. The 18th district also gains Gilroy which is in Santa Clara County but has an agricultural based economy too. The district splits Madera County with the 19th which breaks county lines but western Madera is very similar to the rest of the district so it is a community of interest. As for Cardoza himself, his district is more Republican because he loses his stronghold of Stockton. The district is growing Democratic though, he won strongly in 2010, a very Republican year and the majority of the voting age population is Hispanic. If current population trends continue, the Hispanic population will continue to grow.

California’s 19th District Jeff Denham (R) Yellow Green

Obama 100,331 42%, McCain 136,040 56%

Change: McCain +8

Demographics: 33.8% Hispanic, 57.8% White

Demographics 18+: 28.2% Hispanic, 63.4% White

Old Demographics: 28% Hispanic, 59% White

Communities of Interest: Turlock, Mammoth Lakes, Barstow

Status: Safe Republican

The Sierras and the Mojave Desert used to be diced up between the Los Angeles centered 25th district and the formerly Central Valley centered 19th district so they were not united in one district. They are now part of the new 19th which is probably the most rural district in California now. The 19th loses all of Fresno and the parts of the Central Valley it has are mostly rural and white. Rural San Bernadino County may be far from the northern part of the district but these areas have similar residents. As for Denham, his district was already safe so he should be fine.

Fresno Area

California’s 20th District Jim Costa (D) Pink

Obama 93,033 58%, McCain 63,673 40%

Change: McCain +3

Demographics: 5.5% African American, 8.5% Asian, 63.5% Hispanic, 20.3% White

Demographics 18+: 6.1% African American, 8.5% Asian, 58.8% Hispanic, 24.6% White

Old Demographics: 7% African American, 6% Asian, 63% Hispanic, 21% White

Communities of Interest: Fresno, Delano

Status: Likely Democratic

Costa faced a tough reelection bid in 2010 and I would have strengthened his position but I wanted a district that the commission would approve due to compactness. His district gets a couple of points more Republican but he loses part of heavily Republican Kings County which has more in common with Tulare County which is partly in the 21st district. In his close 2010 reelection bid, Costa lost Kings County by more than 20 points. Costa gains more of his base in Fresno County which he won overwhemingly. His district has a minority population of 75% 18+. Nevertheless, if Costa can win in 2010, he can win any year.

California’s 21st District Devin Nunes (R) Maroon

Obama 91,225 41%, McCain 129,299 58%

Change: McCain +3

Demographics: 6.8% Asian, 43.3% Hispanic, 43.2% White

Demographics 18+: 6.9% Asian, 38.0% Hispanic, 48.7% White

Old Demographics: 5% Asian, 43% Hispanic, 46% White

Communities of Interest: Clovis, Visalia, Hanford

Status: Safe Republican

With the addition of half of Kings County, the 21st district becomes more Republican. While it loses some Republican parts of Tulare County such as Porterville, it also loses some Democratic parts of Fresno County. Although the district looks less compact than its original form, it still contains similar communities.

California’s 22nd District Kevin McCarthy (R) Salmon

Obama 80,970 40%, McCain 120,213 59%

Change: Obama +2

Demographics: 5.4% African American, 47.2% Hispanic, 40.8% White

Demographics 18+: 5.3% African American, 41.9% Hispanic, 46.3% White

Old Demographics: 6% African American, 21% Hispanic, 67% White

Communities of Interest: Shafter, Bakersfield, California City

Status: Safe Republican

The district loses portions of Los Angeles and San Luis Obispo Counties. It is now completely in Kern County and it picks up some Democratic neighborhoods in Bakersfield from the 20th district. The 22nd district also loses Ridgecrest for population purposes. These changes make the 22nd more Democratic but it is still strongly Republican and more compact.

California’s 23rd District Lois Capps (D) Aquamarine

Obama 174,392 58%, McCain 122,791 40%

Change: McCain +16

Demographics: 4.1% Asian, 34.9% Hispanic, 56.3% White

Demographics 18+: 4.5% Asian, 29.7% Hispanic, 61.2% White

Old Demographics: 5% Asian, 41% Hispanic, 48% White

Communities of Interest: San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura

Status: Likely Democratic

Santa Barbara, a liberal university town with an economy based largely on tourism is not too similar to northern Santa Barbara County which is conservative and has an economy based on the Vanderburg Air Force Base and agriculture. Northern Santa Barbara County has tried to split from Santa Barbara County for those reasons. The 23rd district will unite them though because compactness is important. The 23rd also picks up all of San Luis Obispo County. The district loses heavily Democratic Oxnard which brings the McCain percentage up to 40%. In the 1990s, the district was competitive with similar lines but this area has trended Democratic since then so I expect Capps will retain her seat.

California’s 24th District Elton Gallegly (R) Indigo

Obama 160,848 55%, McCain 124,572 43%

Change: Obama +8

Demographics: 6.6% Asian, 42.4% Hispanic, 46.7% White

Demographics 18+: 7.1% Asian, 37.8% Hispanic, 51.3% White

ld Demographics: 4% Asian, 22% Hispanic, 69% White

Communities of Interest: Oxnard, Moorpark, Simi Valley

Status: Tossup

This district loses the conservative parts of Santa Barbara County and picks up heavily Democratic Oxnard instead. This increases the Obama percentage in the district to 55%. Gallegly is an entrenched incumbent but he is not familiar with the voters in Oxnard. Gallegly could win by winning big margins in Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks. Gallegly keeps hinting he wants to retire so these new lines may convince him to do so. If he leaves, the seats will be hotly contested but I expect the Democrat to win by a few points. A possible candidate is State Senator Fran Pavley (D) who’s State Senate district includes Oxnard. If Gallegy retires, State Senator Tony Strickland (R) may run here too.

West LA

California’s 25th District Buck McKeon (R) Pale Violet Red

Obama 121,333 49% McCain 121,347 49%

Change: McCain +0

Demographics: 10.1% African American, 6.5% Asian, 37.6% Hispanic, 42.5% White

Demographics 18+: 9.7% African American, 7.0% Asian, 33.7% Hispanic, 47.1% White

Old Demographics: 8% African American, 4% Asian, 27% Hispanic, 57% White

Communities of Interest: Santa Clarita, Palmdale, Victorville

Status: Likely Republican

This district shrinks as it loses rural areas in the desert and eastern Sierras. It still resembles a tossup because Obama barely won it but this district is strongly Republican. Kerry won only 40% here and McKeon is highly popular. When he retires, a strong Democrat against a weak Republican can win here but although this area is trending Democratic, it is still Republican at a local level.

California’s 26th District Darrell Issa (R) Gray

Obama 136,674 50%, McCain 131,713 48%

Change: Obama +8 (the old 49th District.)

Demographics: 7.0% Asian, 31.5% Hispanic, 55.4% White

Demographics 18+: 7.4% Asian, 27.1% Hispanic, 60.3% White

Old Demographics: 5% African American, 4% Asian, 30% Hispanic, 57% White

Communities of Interest:  Oceanside, Carlsbad

Status: Lean Republican

Although Issa represents the 49th district currently, this district has most of the old 49th district including his home so I expect him to run here. The district has become more Democratic with the removal of conservative inland areas and the addition of some coastal towns such as Carlsbad which lean Democratic. Even though Obama won this district, Issa should win here because he is popular, has money and still retains most of his old district’s territory. If Issa retired, a strong Democrat such as Nick Leibham could make this seat competitive.

LA Area Zoom out

California’s 27th District Howard Berman (D) vs. Brad Sherman (D) Springgreen

Obama 179,810 63%, McCain 98,652 35%

Change: McCain +2

Demographics: 11.4% Asian, 29.9% Hispanic, 51.5% White

Demographics 18+: 11.9% Asian, 26.7% Hispanic, 54.8% White

Old Demographics: 5% African American, 11% Asian, 37% Hispanic, 44% White

Communities of Interest: Agoura Hills, Chatsworth, Northridge

Status: Safe Democratic

This district changes as it picks up the Agoura Hills and Northridge areas. Although this district is too Democratic for a Republican, there might be a big primary fight here. I am not sure if the Democratic party will like combining the two incumbents but the commission may do it in order to create a Hispanic majority district in the San Fernando Valley. Hispanic groups have been pushing for years to create one here. This district combines most of the white parts of the San Fernando Valley. Although this district contains more of Sherman’s territory, Berman is more entrenched and he has the backing of Waxman. His backing may translate into votes in the parts of Waxman’s old district such as Agoura Hills and Calabasas if Waxman campaigns strongly for Berman. Anyway, this will be an interesting race or Sherman may decide not to run here but run in the nearby 24th instead if Gallegly retires.

California’s 28th District Vacant Plum

Obama 120,378 72%, McCain 43,871 25%

Change: McCain +8

Demographics: 8.8% Asian, 66.1% Hispanic, 19.9% White

Old Demographics: 4% African American, 6% Asian, 56% Hispanic, 31% White

Communities of Interest: San Fernando, Los Angeles

Status: Safe Democratic

No matter what the Democrats or Republicans propose, the commission will probably create a strong Hispanic majority district in the San Fernando Valley due to its high Hispanic population and the lack of a Hispanic representative. This district formerly belonged to Howard Berman (D) but he will probably run in the new 30th District or retire. Regardless, a 66% Hispanic population should be enough for a Hispanic to win. A possible candidate would be rising star Alex Padilla (D).

California’s 29th District Adam Schiff (D) Darkseagreen

Obama 183,315 67%, McCain 85,088 31%

Change: McCain +2

Demographics: 4.6% African American, 15.1% Asian, 27.6% Hispanic, 49.3% White

Demographics 18+: 4.7% African American, 15.6% Asian, 24.8% Hispanic, 52.1% White

Old Demographics: 6% African American, 24% Asian, 26% Hispanic, 39% White

Communities of Interest: Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena

Status: Safe Democratic

The district loses a few majority Asian neighborhoods east of Pasadena and gains a higher white population but despite these changes, the district remains Democratic.

California’s 30th District Henry Waxman (D) Lightcoral

Obama 272,769 76%, McCain 80,664 22%

Change: Obama +12

Demographics: 10.8% Asian, 11.3% Hispanic, 70.6% White

Demographics 18+: 11.3% Asian, 10.6% Hispanic, 71.3% White

Old Demographics: 9% Asian, 8% Hispanic, 76% White

Communities of Interest: Malibu, Beverly Hills, Los Angeles

Status: Safe Democratic

The 30th district loses neighborhoods in the San Fernando Valley and towns such as Agoura Hills and Calabasas. The district picks up Tarzana to compensate for the population loss. This helps make the district more Democratic even though this district was safe for Waxman already.

California’s 31st District Xavier Beccara (D) Khaki

Obama 120,249 81%, McCain 25,037 17%

Change: Obama +1

Demographics: 5.6% African American, 18.3% Asian, 64.0% Hispanic, 10.5% White

Demographics 18+: 6.1% African American, 20.9% Asian, 58.7% Hispanic, 12.7% White

Old Demographics: 4% African American, 14% Asian, 70% Hispanic, 10% White

Communities of Interest: Downtown Los Angeles, Clement Junction, Silver Lake

Status: Safe Democratic

Beccara’s district becomes more compact as it picks up areas such as Boyle Heights from the 34th District. It loses a few Hispanics but still remains heavily Hispanic and Democratic.



Los Angeles Zoom in

California’s 32nd District Judy Chu (D) Orangered

Obama 129,104 59% McCain 84,414 38%

Change: McCain +17

Demographics: 38.1% Asian, 39.0% Hispanic, 19.6% White

Demographics 18+: 40.2% Asian, 35.1% Hispanic, 21.7% White

Old Demographics: 18% Asian, 62% Hispanic, 15% White

Communities of Interest: Monterey Park, El Monte, Glendora

Status: Safe Democratic

The commission will probably create a district where an Asian candidate can win in this part of LA County. The district could be extended into Asian neighborhoods in Diamond Bar but I doubt they will do that because it will create convoluted lines if they want to connect Asian areas in Monterey Park and Diamond Bar. The 32nd district loses heavily Hispanic Baldwin Park but picks up Asian areas near Arcadia. Although Asians are not the pluarity in this district, they compose the pluarity of elligble voters so Chu should survive a primary challenge from a Hispanic candidate. Chu’s current district is 62% Hispanic and 18% Asian so a strong Hispanic primary challenger would have a strong base. The district becomes more Republican because the new Asian areas such as San Marino and Arcadia are not heavily Democratic. Obama’s 21 point win here should be high enough to protect Chu and she should perform higher than Obama among Asians too.

California’s 33rd District Karen Bass (D) Royal Blue

Obama 213,299 89% McCain 24,021 10%

Change: Obama +4

Demographics: 30.5% African American, 7.0% Asian, 44.5% Hispanic, 15.1% White

Demographics 18+: 31.5% African American, 8.1% Asian, 40.3% Hispanic, 17.4% White

Old Demographics: 30% African American, 12% Asian, 35% Hispanic, 20% White

Communities of Interest: Los Angeles, Culver City, Inglewood

Status: Safe Democratic

With the inclusion of Inglewood, this becomes the 2nd most Democratic district in California after the 9th. Also, I had to eliminate one African American district in LA because it will be difficult for all three African Americans to hold their districts as the Hispanic population grows. Bass’s district’s African American population rises to 31%. While Hispanics are still a plurality here in the 18+ population, Bass should win the primaries because African Americans still have higher turnout here. If current population trends continue with many African Americans moving out to the exurbs, a Hispanic candidate may be competitive at the end of the decade. For 2012 though, Bass should be fine.

California’s 34th District Lucille Roybal Allard (D) Limegreen

Obama 134,331 72%, McCain 47,779 26%

Change: McCain +6

Demographics: 5.2% Asian, 81.8% Hispanic, 10.0% White

Demographics 18+: 6.1% Asian, 78.4% Hispanic, 12.1% White

Old Demographics: 6% Asian, 77% Hispanic, 11% White

Communities of Interest: East Los Angeles, Downey, Norwalk

Status: Safe Democratic

Yes, I understand this district may be too narrow and too long so the commission may not think it is compact. A district like this is necessary though because if it were more compact around the East Los Angeles area, the Hispanic population would be considered too high and it would be considered packing under the VRA. Many of the Hispanic areas there are around 90% Hispanic. Other Hispanic majority districts would not have enough Hispanics to elect a Hispanic representative if they cannot pick up heavily Hispanic neighborhoods such as East Los Angeles, Pico Rivera and Lynwood. Anyway, Allard’s district is still 78% Hispanic even while picking up less Hispanic Whittier and Norwalk which makes the district a few points more Republican but still safe for Allard.

California’s 35th District Maxine Waters (D) Darkorchid

Obama 174,015 84%, McCain 29,599 14%

Change: McCain +0

Demographics: 28.0% African American, 9.5% Asian, 55.2% Hispanic, 5.4% White

Demographics 18+: 29.7% African American, 11.1% Asian, 50.8% Hispanic, 6.7% White

Old Demographics: 34% African American, 6% Asian, 47% Hispanic, 10% White

Communities of Interest: Gardena, Compton, Carson

Status: Safe Democratic

The 35th District is now a combination of the current 35th and 37th districts but much of the 37th District is in the new 46th District so Waters has a bit more territory here. Although her district loses her base of Inglewood and picks up Compton and Carson from the 37th District, Waters should win the next few elections. She can face tough elections in the near future though. The Hispanic population here is growing and if Waters’ popularity decreases quickly due to her ethics problem, her unpopularity combined with a growing Hispanic population gives a Hispanic candidate an opening.

California’s 36th District Vacant Orange

Obama 197,636 61%, McCain 117,566 37%

Change: McCain +6

Demographics: 17.3% Asian, 27.8% Hispanic, 47.2% White

Demographics 18+: 17.9% Asian, 24.5% Hispanic, 50.9% White

Old Demographics: 13% Asian, 30% Hispanic, 48% White

Communities of Interest: Manhattan Beach, Torrance, Rancho Palos Verdes

Status: Safe Democratic

The district becomes more Republican as it picks up Republican leaning Rancho Palos Verdes. This district had similar territory in the 1990s and was very competitive. The territory has trended Democratic very quickly with Kerry performing better than Gore here while Gore performed better than Kerry statewide. Obama’s 61% of the vote is at his statewide average of 61%. The current congresswoman Jane Harman (D) will resign soon. The Democrats though have strong candidates running to including former LA city councilmember Janice Hahn (D) and popular Secretary of State Debra Bowen (D). They should keep this district in the Democratic column.

California’s 37th District David Dreier (R) (formerly the 26th District) Dodger Blue

Obama 134,679 56%, McCain 100,675 42%

Change: Obama +10

Demographics: 5.7% African American, 11.1% Asian, 51.7% Hispanic, 29.2% White

Demographics 18+: 6.0% African American, 12.0% Asian, 46.8% Hispanic, 33.2% White

Old Demographics: 4% African American, 15% Asian, 24% Hispanic, 52% White

Communities of Interest: Covina, Pomona, Chino Hills

Status: Lean Democratic if Dreier runs, Likely Democratic if he does not

The 37th straddles the border between Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties. As for the party strength in this district, Obama may have won with 56% of the vote here but if the Republican candidate is extremely popular and can make inroads with Hispanics, he or she could win. David Dreier (R)’s district was eliminated on this map. He could run here because it contains part of his old district with Upland but he is not familiar with the mostly Democratic Covina or Pomona voters so a Democrat could win here with large margins from those two cities. As for Hispanic representation, the district is nearly 50% 18+ Hispanic now. They would not make up the majority of the votes but there may be enough Hispanics to elect a Hispanic in the Democratic primary because many of the white voters in this district are Republican.

California’s 38th District Grace Napolitano (D) Medium Aquamarine

Obama 144,232 66%, McCain 69,883 32%

Change: McCain +10

Demographics: 22.4% Asian, 63.8% Hispanic, 10.8% White

Demographics 18+: 24.5% Asian, 59.7% Hispanic, 12.7% White

Old Demographics: 10% Asian, 71% Hispanic, 14% White

Communities of Interest: Pico Rivera, Baldwin Park, Diamond Bar

Status: Safe Democratic

This district becomes more Republican by losing Norwalk and picking up Diamond Bar. Napolitano lives in Norwalk but she should run here since it contains most of her old district. Also, the district loses Hispanics but the 60% Hispanic 18+ population should protect Napolitano.

California’s 39th District Linda Sanchez (D) Mocassin

Obama 126,071 72%, McCain 46,502 26%

Change: Obama +12

Demographics: 7.2% African American, 9.4% Asian, 71.4% Hispanic, 10.5% White

Demographics: 7.5% African American, 10.8% Asian, 67.6% Hispanic, 12.8% White

Old Demographics: 6% African American, 10% Asian, 61% Hispanic, 21% White

Communities of Interest: Huntington Park., Lynwood, Lakewood

Status: Safe Democratic

The district becomes more Democratic and Hispanic with the loss of swing areas such as La Mirada and the addition of heavily Hispanic Huntington Park and Bell Gardens. Sanchez should have no problems here.

Orange County

California’s 40th District Ed Royce (R) Fireback

Obama 116,698 48%, McCain 122,690 50%

Change: Obama +2

Demographics: 18.2% Asian, 40.3% Hispanic, 36.8% White

Demographics 18+: 19.1% Asian, 35.5% Hispanic, 41.2% White

Old Demographics: 16% Asian, 30% Hispanic, 49% White

Communities of Interest: La Mirada, Fullerton, Orange

Status: Likely Republican

Royce’s district keeps most of its old territory but expands a bit. It picks up the swing area La Mirada in Los Angeles County as well as Whittier. It loses marginal Los Alamitos. These changes make the district a bit more Democratic. Royce is popular here though so he should win. If Royce retires at the end of the decade though, a Democrat should have a good shot here.

San Bernardino Area

California’s 41st District Jerry Lewis (R) Lightsteelblue

Obama 104,162 42%, McCain 138,074 56%

Change: McCain +4

Demographics: 7.5% African American, 4.4% Asian, 34.1% Hispanic, 50.5% White

Demographics 18+: 7.1% African American, 4.8% Asian, 29.4% Hispanic, 55.9% White

Old Demographics: 5% African American, 23% Hispanic, 64% White

Communities of Interest: Rancho Cucamonga, Redlands, Banning

Status: Safe Republican

The district grew so it will shed some territory. It lost most of rural San Bernardino County including  Needles. It also loses Republican leaning Hemet and San Jacinto. It does pick up Republican neighborhoods in Rancho Cucamonga though. Rancho Cucamonga is not next to the bulk of the district’s population which is east of San Bernardino and Riverside. Rancho Cucamonga can be considered a community of interest though because it has similar demographics and voting habits with the rest of the district. Also, connecting Rancho Cucamonga to the rest of the district does not create convoluted lines.

California’s 42nd District Gary Miller (R) Lawngreen

Obama 145,652 46%, McCain 167,287 52%

Change: Obama +2

Demographics: 21.3% Asian, 15.6% Hispanic, 57.7% White

Demographics 18+: 21.8% Asian, 14.0% Hispanic, 59.9% White

Old Demographics: 16% Asian, 24% Hispanic, 54% White

Communities of Interest: Yorba Linda, Irvine, Lake Forest

Status: Safe Republican

Gary Miller’s home is now in the heavily Hispanic 38th district but I believe he will run here since this district contains much of his old territory. The district is now completely in Orange County and it picks up Democratic leaning Irvine. These changes do not change the political composition of the district much though. Miller should be safe.

California’s 43rd District Joe Baca (D) Magenta

Obama 105,761 65%, McCain 54,576 33%

Change: McCain +6

Demographics: 11.0% African American, 5.3% Asian, 61.2% Hispanic, 20.2% White

Demographics 18+: 11.4% African American, 6.1% Asian, 56.1% Hispanic, 24.5% White

Old Demographics: 12% African American, 3% Asian, 58% Hispanic, 23% White

Communities of Interest: Fontana, Colton, San Bernardino

Status: Safe Democratic

The district becomes more Republican by losing Democratic areas in Ontario and Colton as well as picking up part of Republican leaning Redlands. The adult population of the district is 56% Hispanic and they make up a large portion of the Democratic primary voters so Baca should be safe in this 65% Obama district.

California’s 44th District Vacant (R) Medium Violetred

Obama 100,306 61% McCain 59,648 37%

Change: N/A

Demographics: 9.0% African American, 5.6% Asian, 60.1% Hispanic, 22.8% White

Demographics 18+: 9.3% African American, 6.5% Asian, 54.8% Hispanic, 27.3% White

Old Demographics: N/A

Communities of Interest: Ontario, Riverside, Moreno Valley

Status: Likely Democratic

This is the new Hispanic majority district in the Inland Empire which contains Hispanic neighborhoods in Ontario, Colton, Riverside and Moreno Valley. Ken Calvert currently represents the 44th district on the current map and the 44th district is a swing district. I doubt he will run in a district that voted 61% for Obama so any strong Democrat who runs here should win the general election.

California’s 45th District Ken Calvert (R) (formerly the 44th) Turquoise

Obama 107,459 51% McCain 101,375 48%

Change: Obama +2

Demographics: 6.7% African American, 8.0% Asian, 43.6% Hispanic, 38.6% White

Demographics 18+: 6.8% African American, 8.8% Asian, 38.4% Hispanic, 43.6% White

Old Demographics: 6% African American, 5% Asian, 35% Hispanic, 51% White

Communities of Interest: Corona, Riverside, San Jacinto

Status: Toss Up

Although this district is numbered the 45th which Mary Bono Mack (R) currently represents, she probably will not run here since this district does not contain most of her current territory. This district at first looks like a Republican lean because Obama overperformed usual Democratic percentages. Democrats have a shot here though because Ken Calvert (R) is a weak incumbent and won in 2008 only because of margins in Orange County. His district loses Orange County while picking up Democratic Perris and marginal San Jacinto. His district is also quickly trending Democratic. Also, Bill Hedrick (D) in 2008 received almost no support from national Democrats but lost by only 2 points against Calvert. If Hedrick runs in a good Democratic year and receives support from national Democrats, he should win.

California’s 46th District Dana Rohrabacher (R) Tomato

Obama 155,425 58% McCain 106,910 40%

Change: Obama +20

Demographics: 8.1% African American, 18.3% Asian, 32.7% Hispanic, 37.8% White

Demographics 18+: 7.9% African American, 18.9% Asian, 28.2% Hispanic, 42.4% White

Old Demographics: 1% African American, 15% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 62% White

Communities of Interest: Long Beach, Seal Beach, Huntington Beach

Status: Lean Democratic

The district becomes more Democratic with the addition of Democratic areas in Long Beach. The removal of Costa Mesa and most of Huntington Beach helps too. Rohrabacher is popular but even he should not win in a 58% Obama district. Also, the new Democratic voters from Long Beach are not familiar with him so he will not be able to win by taking away Democratic votes. An issue with this district is that western Long Beach may not be considered a community of interest with the rest of the district. It should work because it is in the same city limits as eastern Long Beach which is currently in the 46th District and should be a community of interest with the Orange County part of the district. Also, the addition of most of Long Beach makes the district compact and it formerly had a thin line going to Rancho Palos Verdes.

California’s 47th District Loretta Sanchez (D) Thistle

Obama 86,950 59%, McCain 57,839 39%

Change: McCain +1

Demographics: 1.6% Asian, 65.7% Hispanic, 14.0% White

Demographics 18+: 19.7% Asian, 60.2% Hispanic, 17.3% White

Old Demographics: 14% Asian, 65% Hispanic, 17% White

Communities of Interest: Anaheim, Santa Ana, Garden Grove

Status: Safe Democratic

Sanchez’s district does not change much because it is already a Hispanic majority district and it contains similar communities. She picks up more of Garden Grove which may not be the best idea because her 2010 challenger Van Tran (R) is popular there. She should be safe because she won by double digits in 2010, an extremely Republican year and if she were strong then, she is strong now.

California’s 48th District John Campbell (R) SandyBrown

Obama 159,835 46%, McCain 179,461 52%

Change: McCain +8

Demographics: 10.8% Asian, 18.6% Hispanic, 66.5% White

Demographics 18+: 11.2% Asian, 15.9% Hispanic, 69.5% White

Old Demographics: 13% Asian, 15% Hispanic, 68% White

Communities of Interest: Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Laguna Beach

Status: Safe Republican

Campbell’s district loses Irvine and becomes the coastal district. It picks up Huntington Beach and Costa Mesa. Although the district is narrow, it certainly picks up communities of interest by getting all the beach towns. The district becomes more Republican with the loss of Irvine but Campbell was pretty safe anyway. This district may be open to voting for a libertarian Democrat if they view Campbell as one of the big government Republicans but for now, this district remains Republican.

California’s 49th District Mary Bono (R) (formerly the 45th District) IndianRed

Obama 112,830 45%, McCain 135,459 54%

Change: McCain +16

Demographics: 6.1% Asian, 32.0% Hispanic, 54.8% White

Demographics 18+: 6.2% Asian, 27.2% Hispanic, 60.3% White

Old Demographics: 6% African American, 38% Hispanic, 50% White

Communities of Interest: Lake Elsinore, Temecula, Palm Springs

Status: Safe Republican

Bono’s old district contained Moreno Valley and voted for Obama by 5 points. Her district is now more Republican with the removal of Moreno Valley and heavily Hispanic Coachella. Her district picks up Republican Murrieta and Temecula though. Although Palm Springs leans Democratic, Murrieta and Temecula more than cancel out the Democratic votes there. Democrats probably would like to put Palm Springs in the 45th district so Steve Pougnet (D), the Palm Springs mayor can run for that seat but dividing the Palm Springs corridor between three districts would be violate communities of interest rules. Anyway, Pougnet does not have to live in the 45th district if he decides to run in it. The 45th district is close to Palm Springs so carpetbagging should not be a big issue.

San Diego Area

California’s 50th District Brian Bilbray (R) Powder Blue

Obama 203,346 59%, McCain 136,596 39%

Change: Obama +16

Demographics: 18.4% Asian, 14.0% Hispanic, 59.9% White

Demographics 18+: 18.5% Asian, 12.4% Hispanic, 62.8% White

Old Demographics: 10% Asian, 19% Hispanic, 66% White

Communities of Interest: Del Mar, San Diego

Status: Lean Democratic

Bilbray has represented San Diego for a number of years and he is used to running in districts that lean Democratic. His old 50th District voted for Obama by a couple of points. He should lose in this district though because he picks up more of San Diego City including some white liberal areas from the 53rd. This increases the Obama percentage to 59% and that should be enough to beat him. This district also fits the guidelines for the commission by remaining compact and taking in similar neighborhoods. It is possible Susan Davis (D) from the 53rd will run here because her district’s white population may be too small for her and the 50th district contains part of her old district. She ran against Bilbray in 2000 and it will be an interesting rematch. She should win though.

California’s 51st District Bob Filner (D) Saddle Brown

Obama 114,954 59%, McCain 78,621 40%

Change: McCain +8

Demographics: 6.6% Asian, 67.2% Hispanic, 20.9% White

Demographics 18+: 7.2% Asian, 62.4% Hispanic, 25.0% White

Old Demographics: 9% African American, 12% Asian, 53% Hispanic, 21% White

Communities of Interest: Coachella, El Centro, Chula Vista

Status: Safe Democratic

Bob Filner is a popular representative but the commission will create a Hispanic majority district with parts of San Diego. He has handily beaten back primary challenges from Hispanics though in a 53% Hispanic district. He won with support from African Americans and Asians and he loses many of those voters to the 53rd district and the 51st district’s Hispanic population rose to 67% under the new lines. He retains most of his old territory so he may survive. Nonetheless, his district becomes more Hispanic by picking up Coachella and Indio. I have also heard of proposals to connect Imperial County to an eastern San Diego County district. Those areas do not have much in common though but it is necessary to connect them so there is a district designed to elect a Hispanic representative in the San Diego area. The district becomes more Republican too though by losing National City and some Democratic neighborhoods in San Diego but remains safe for any Democrat. Filner may decide to run in the 53rd district which has a larger white population.

California’s 52nd District Duncan Hunter Jr. (R) OliveDrub

Obama 126,471 42%, McCain 171,794 57%

Change: McCain +7

Demographics: 5.5% Asian, 23.5% Hispanic, 63.5% White

Demographics 18+: 5.7% Asian, 20.0% Hispanic, 67.8% White

Old Demographics: 5% Asian, 14% Hispanic, 73% White

Communities of Interest: Poway, San Diego, El Cajon

Status: Safe Republican

The district was already Republican but it becomes even more Republican. It loses most of San Diego City except the northeastern area and picks up Republican leaning Escondido. Hunter should have no problems here.

California’s 53rd District Susan Davis (D) Gainsboro

Obama 132,477 69%, McCain 56,420 29%

Change: Obama +2

Demographics: 10.1% African American, 12.2% Asian, 46.6% Hispanic, 28.0% White

Demographics 18+: 10.1% African American, 13.0% Asian, 41.0% Hispanic, 33.2% White

Old Demographics: 7% African American, 8% Asian, 29% Hispanic, 51% White

Communities of Interest: National City, San Diego

Status: Safe Democratic

Davis’s district becomes less white as it loses more northern parts of San Diego and picks up National City. These changes make the district more Democratic but less safe for Davis. She faces the possibility of a primary challenge from a minority candidate. She should survive because many of the voters in the new 53rd are from her old district and whites probably outnumber Hispanics in the Democratic primary. Also, Davis should get support from African Americans and Asians. Filner may give her a primary challenge here though. This may make her decide to run in the 50th district against Bilbray. It would be a rematch of the 2000 race where they challenged each other in a similar district.

Have any suggestions on the map? Do you have any maps you want to share? Please feel free to comment and share your thoughts.