While Republicans threaten to sue, 2012 could be an interesting election season

by Brian Leubitz

Redistricting matters.  It matters so much that Republicans are already planning their assault on the redistricting commission’s tentative final maps which were released today.  Take a look at that picture to the right, and you can see what it is worth. (Hat tip to Dante)  The Republicans are simply scared of complete irrelevance:

California Republican Party Chairman Tom Del Beccaro was laying the groundwork Monday to fight some or all of the maps, saying attorneys were considering either a lawsuit or a referendum that would place the issue before voters.

Asked if the commission’s final product would give Democrats a two-thirds majority in the Legislature, Del Beccaro said simply, “I think it has raised the stakes for that considerably.” (SacBee)

These maps do put several sitting state legislators and members of Congress in jeopardy.  There won’t be a huge shift in partisan representation, but the Republicans have more to lose in the Legislature than the Democrats do.  The Republicans, while they would like to get a majority at some point, feel comfortable with their empowered minority.  They like their safe seats, and are terrified of fighting for toss-up districts.

If the Dems lose two seats in both houses, they are still in the same position that they were before. But if Republicans lose two in both houses, and the Democrats then have a 2/3 supermajority.  The 2/3 threshold is still a very difficult task, and would require another big round of turnout in 2012. These maps do make it more possible, but far from probable.  But with stakes like that, the CRP is right to worry.

Meanwhile, it seems that communities of interest have taken precedence over all else in the considerations.  Despite the fact that the text of Prop 11 made city and county borders, and communities of interest the express priority, some aren’t so fond of that.  Dan Walters calls it a de facto segregation, and he is somewhat correct on that score.  For better or worse, we Californians have separated ourselves out. Grouping not just by race, but also by interests and, as Walters points out, political views.  Urban life appeals to some, but not to others.  This goes a long way in indicating your political leanings.

You can keep track of the maps here, but a first vote is scheduled for Friday.  At this point it looks like the Commission is reaching a sort of consensus that will result in a map emerging from the process.  (If so, I will duly issue a mea culpa on my prediction that it would be hard for them to even produce a consensus map.)