Support for marriage equality continues to grow
By Brian Leubitz
My apologies for being away for a while. I’ve been traveling, and is often the case after traveling, I got sick. So, as I try to ward off this nasty head cold, here’s some food for thought on the subject of marriage equality.
As you might remember, we were polling we’ll on prop 8 several months before the election. Then the nasty (and untrue) ads about forcing your kids to get married to a gay, or something like that, started appearing. We had no coordinated response, and ultimately that became the story. But in the marriage debate, time is our friend. And as every year passes, the electorate becomes more favorable.
And California’s great population of Decline to State voters are moving in the same way. Last week, the CA League of Conservaition voters released a poll focusing on DTS voters, and the results were quite positive.
By a 2-to-1 margin, three out of five (60 percent)” decline-to-state “voters support allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally, with a resounding 44 percent who strongly support legal avenues to marriage. In contrast, less than a third (30 percent total oppose) oppose legalizing marriage for gay and lesbian couples and less than one out of ten is undecided.
In a July 2009 poll commissioned by Love Honor Cherish, Equality California, Courage Campaign and more than 30 other organizations to determine when to seek repeal of Prop 8, decline-to-state voters favored marriage by 49% with 18% undecided and 33% opposed.(LoveHonorCherish)
Now, to be clear, this is far from conclusive proof of anything. LHC has a ballot measure submitted in Sacramento, and is trying to rally support. However, as of yet, there hasn’t been any institutional support for the measure while the legal case is outstanding. With that case expected to drag on for months/years, it seems unlikely that a consensus will be formed around the November 2012 date for a measure. No matter when it goes on, a ballot measure would be extremeley expensive. Now, that isn’t to say that I don’t support the concept, because I think we really need to win one at the ballot at some point to give the Supreme Court some courage.
And all the numbers are there, we can win in 2012. But from where we stand right now, we have a lot of work to do before we are ballot ready.
Love all your writing and reporting Brian, thanks for all that.
As to SCOTUS, they don’t need courage, nor will they take it from the 99%, much less the LGBT community.
They only accept power and money, and to persuade them, will take millions and millions in the streets, like it always has for women’s right to vote, like it always has for blacks and the end to Jim Crow.
But then, I’m sure you know this. Musta been a typo of somethin I read.
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SCOTUS has (metaphorically) waived Magna Carta, habeus, n pronounced Corporations As Hoomanzz (real) . . . and if pressed, will endorse indefinite rendition for American citizens.
They ain’t lacking courage by any means, they are fearless for the rights of the 1% and the corporate fascist fuckers who own this nation and every facet of our lives.
But then, I’m sure you know THAT too . . .
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I like the idea of winning this thing at SCOTUS because it means our laws are just. But I also like winning at the ballot box because it means we live in a good state (or at least better than most). Both would be nice.
The problem is that, while the young are strongly for gay marriage, the elderly are strongly against it and the elderly show up in large numbers at the polls while the young do not.
Likewise, aren’t DTS voters less likely to show up than those registered to a political party?
Long-term, prospects are good as the bigots will die off. But I think we need to be very careful about assuming victory based on polls.
This CLCV poll has one overarching theme, voters holding liberal positions on key issues like marriage and the environment are leaving the Democratic Party in droves. Why are so many liberals now DTS instead of D?
Riddle me that Batman.
What happened to the big tent Democratic party? I guess if you don’t pass the “union comes first” purity test you aren’t welcome.
I support collective bargaining and everyone’s right to join a union, but public unions should not write or dictate public policy…which is exactly what happens in CA.
I support environmental protections but people live here too and the smug middle class and wealthy eco jihadists who dicatate environmental policy in Sacramento don’t give a rat’s ass about poor unemployed people so long as they have nice parks to drive their Volvo SUVs to and nice ski resorts to hang out in and beautifil views from the Malibu bluffs or the slopes of Mount Tamalpais.
Call me a populist or a Reagan Democrat if you will, but you cannot deny that the Democratic Party in CA is not controlled by wealthy narrow interests and it is no longer a party of the people.