Top 2 Creates Interesting Scenarios Within Republican Assembly Caucus

by Brian Leubitz

The headline itself sounds like insanity.  But with only a month until candidate filing opens it is looking increasingly like Republicans may realize they have to choose between keeping a few RINO pets or face extinction.

We all know the situation in the Senate, where Republicans are pinning their hopes of keeping Democrats below 2/3rds on a handful of seats along the Central Coast.  They are so worried they have launched an expensive referendum challenge in hopes of getting more favorable lines from the Supreme Court.  Members of their Caucus must think they are in trouble as they resemble rats on the proverbial ship with both Senators Blakeslee and Strickland announcing they will not be running for re-election.

The Assembly is more interesting.  Most analysts believe that Democrats cannot reach two-thirds in that house in 2012.  But looking at the Republican frontrunners they may not have to.  In AD 77 there is Brian Maienschein, a former San Diego City Council member who is well liked by local labor and who the Flashreport had labeled as too moderate to be considered a real Republican.

In AD 61 they have Bill Batey.  Besides being a Moreno Valley City Councilmember, this guy is pro-choice, fine with gay marriage and won’t sign the no-tax pledge.  And yes, he says he is a Republican.

In AD 8 they have Peter Tateishi who is a by-the-book Republican.  But leadership is so worried about his ability to win the seat they have been quietly encouraging local developer Jon Bagetelos to run.  Why quietly?  Because among his moderate credentials, Bagetelos is a major backer of Sacramento’s Democratic mayor Kevin Johnson.  Bagatelos lost an Assembly race once before to a conservative Republican and this time is trying to quietly set himself up before the tea party people figure out who he really is.

Then you can throw sitting Assemblymember Jeff Gorrell in the mix.   The only reason he hasn’t been branded a RINO yet is that he hasn’t had the chance to vote due to an extended military deployment to Afghanistan.  But once he is back and if he has some other moderate voices to give him cover, expect Gorell to go up on votes for taxes, labor, choice and marriage equality.

So unlike the Senate where Republicans are putting up a vigorous fight, if something doesn’t change by the time candidate filing closes Assembly Republicans may simply hand Democrats the two-thirds votes we need to advance our agenda no matter what happens in November.  Where is Republican leader Connie Conway?  Are the conservative members of her Caucus giving her a pass because they would like to remain at least sort-of-relevant?  Or are they asleep at the wheel as she pulls the wool over their eyes?  Given Assembly Republicans penchant for dumping their leaders, I guess we will know soon enough.