Top Two

As expected some of the primaries last night have resulted in same-party runoffs for the general election.  Roughly 3.8mm people voted yesterday.  This contrasts with 13.7mm who voted int he last presidential general election; one wonders about the likely 10mm voters in November who will realize they’ve been denied options.  

Top two voting disenfranchises all but the major parties.  There will be no Green, Libertarian, Peace & Freedom, etc candidates for voters in November.  And, in some places, there will be no Democrats or Republicans.  (In some districts, the major party out of office did not have a challenger against an incumbent, these are not counted in my list of disenfranchised.)

The disenfranchised are (based on counts at 4:43AM today):

The Democrats of the 8th Congressional District:  They get to choose between Republican Paul Cook (10,682 votes) and Gregg Imus (10,353 votes).  Highest Democrat was Jackie Conaway (10,163).

Republicans of the 30th:  Brad Sherman (Dem, 31,866) vs Howard Berman (Dem, 24,320).  Highest Republican was Mark Reed (9,506)

Democrats of the 31st:  This is perhaps the worst:  GOP candidates combined for 27,145 votes and Democrats combined for 25,501:  51.6% to 48.4%.  Yet the general is two Republicans.  Greg Miller (14,057) vs Bob Dutton (13,088).  Top Democrat:  Pete Aguilar (12,016).

Republicans of the 33rd:  Henry Waxman (40,383) vs Bill Bloomfield (No preference, 21,831).  Top Republican:  Christopher David (13,564)

None of the State Senate primaries contested by both parties ended up with an intra-party general election, although four (out of 20 up for vote) went uncontested by the Republicans.

State Assembly districts with intra-primary general elections after both parties contested the primary are the 1st (Democrats disenfranchised), 5th (Democrats), 10th (Republicans), 18th (Republicans), 19th (Republicans), 20th (Republicans), 23rd (Democrats), 39th (Republicans), 46th (Republicans), 47th (Republicans), 50th (Republicans), and 72nd (Democrats).

14 thoughts on “Top Two”

  1. It would be so much more sensible to just have ranked ballots with a Condorcet method for choosing (but not IRV–that’s dumb).

  2.   are so close that I wouldn’t assume that the GOP candidates are out of it (although the Repub is in fourth place in the 50th). In my district, AD-46 there are fewer than 100 votes difference between the second and third place candidates. I hope the GOP candidate places second in AD-46 because otherwise we have to face a megabucks charter schools Dem in November in a tough race. I will do whatever I can to see that that little a$$hole Brian Johnson does not get elected to anything, but I would rather be able to focus on other races.

       There are well over 100,000 votes yet to be counted in L.A. County (and almost a million statewide). I would hold off on any major pronouncements before the results are certified.

  3. Oh boo-hoo.  The fault is not in the top-two system in this case, but the fact that the Democratic Party allowed wing-nut candidates like Rita Ramirez-Dean (who runs in every election and embarrasses herself in the process) to bleed off badly needed votes for Aquilar.  Under the new rules, the party needs to show some discipline and work to limit the number of entries.

    As for the third parties, who cares?  They never win anything anyway.  If a third-party candidate won something, maybe I would take them seriously, but for now they are where the purist fringe wish to hang out and be inconsequential.

  4. so that nominees would be elected by party voters rather than selected by party bosses.

    This wasn’t a primary at all. It was a general election with a mandatory runoff.

    Perhaps there will be an increased role for local Democratic clubs and county committees to validate and endorse candidates, but I see the advantage going to incumbents and big-money candidates.

  5. A strong Libertarian candidate has a VERY good chance in getting into the top two in a swing type district.  Many like me who vote Republican will gladly vote for a Libertarian candidate in the Primary.  A Libertarian in a GE being one of two options would be the best chance that party ever gets.

    I assume the Greens might be able to do the same in a lefty district.  I am very happy with how things are going under the new system so far.

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