Analysis of California State Assembly 2012 races

Here is my analysis of the Assembly races. I will start with listing by rating.

GUARANTEED DEM – 15

SAFE DEM – 32

LEAN DEM – 2

TOSS-UP – 3

LEAN GOP – 1

LIKELY GOP – 2

SAFE GOP – 19

GUARANTEED GOP – 6

The Democrats’ best-case scenario, winning all the seats that lean their way and the toss-ups, is status-quo 52-28, while the Republicans’ best-case scenario is 49-31.

Now, on to the races.

California’s 1st State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Northeastern corner (Redding)

November ballot: Rick Bosetti (R) vs. Brian Dahle (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-31

Governor 2010: Whitman 53-37

President 2008: McCain 53-41

California’s 2nd State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: North Coast (Santa Rosa)

November ballot: Wesley Chesbro (D-inc) vs. Tom Lynch (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 57-32

Governor 2010: Brown 59-33

President 2008: Obama 67-29

California’s 3rd State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Northern Sacramento Valley (Chico, Paradise, Oroville)

November ballot: Dan Logue (R-inc) vs. Charles Rouse (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 57-32

Governor 2010: Whitman 52-39

President 2008: McCain 53-44

California’s 4th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Western Sacramento Valley (Davis, Napa)

November ballot: Mariko Yamada (D-inc) vs. John Munn (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 54-37

Governor 2010: Brown 57-36

President 2008: Obama 65-32

California’s 5th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Northeastern San Joaquin Valley, Sierras

November ballot: Frank Bigelow (R) vs. Rico Oller (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-32

Governor 2010: Whitman 53-39

President 2008: McCain 53-44

California’s 6th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Roseville, Folsom

November ballot: Beth Gaines (R-inc) vs. Regy Bronner (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 60-32

Governor 2010: Whitman 57-37

President 2008: McCain 55-42

California’s 7th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Sacramento, West Sacramento

November ballot: Roger Dickinson (D-inc) vs. Jonathan Zachariou (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 58-33

Governor 2010: Brown 65-29

President 2008: Obama 67-30

California’s 8th State Assembly DistrictTOSS-UP

Geography: Citrus Heights, Rancho Cordova

November ballot: Ken Cooley (D) vs. Peter Tateishi (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 48-43

Governor 2010: Brown 50-43

President 2008: Obama 52-45

Description: This is probably the dictionary definition of “swing district”.

California’s 9th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Lodi, Elk Grove, part of Sacramento

November ballot: Richard Pan (D-inc) vs. Tony Amador (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 51-41

Governor 2010: Brown 58-36

President 2008: Obama 59-38

California’s 10th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Marin County, southern Sonoma County

November ballot: Michael Allen (D-inc) vs. Marc Levine (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 66-27

Governor 2010: Brown 68-27

President 2008: Obama 76-21

California’s 11th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Antioch, Fairfield, Vacaville

November ballot: Jim Frazier (D) vs. Mike Hudson (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 51-41

Governor 2010: Brown 55-39

President 2008: Obama 60-37

California’s 12th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Eastern San Joaquin and Stanislaus Counties

November ballot: Kristin Olsen (R-inc) vs. Christopher Mateo (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 57-34

Governor 2010: Whitman 53-39

President 2008: McCain 52-45

California’s 13th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Stockton, Tracy

November ballot: Susan Talamantes Eggman (D) vs. K. “Jeffrey” Jafri (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 51-40

Governor 2010: Brown 55-38

President 2008: Obama 61-36

California’s 14th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Concord, Martinez, Vallejo

November ballot: Susan Bonilla (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 61-32

Governor 2010: Brown 62-32

President 2008: Obama 69-29

California’s 15th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Berkeley, Richmond

November ballot: Nancy Skinner (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 84-12

Governor 2010: Brown 84-12

President 2008: Obama 87-10

California’s 16th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Livermore, San Ramon, Walnut Creek

November ballot: Joan Buchanan (D-inc) vs. Al Phillips (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 50-45

Governor 2010: Brown 51-45

President 2008: Obama 60-37

California’s 17th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Eastern San Francisco

November ballot: Tom Ammiano (D-inc) vs. Jason P. Clark (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 80-11

Governor 2010: Brown 82-13

President 2008: Obama 87-10

California’s 18th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Oakland

November ballot: Rob Bonta (D) vs. Abel Guillen (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 81-13

Governor 2010: Brown 82-13

President 2008: Obama 85-12

California’s 19th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Western San Francisco, Daly City

November ballot: Michael Breyer (D) vs. Phil Ting (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 70-21

Governor 2010: Brown 72-23

President 2008: Obama 78-19

California’s 20th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Fremont, Hayward

November ballot: Bill Quirk (D) vs. Jennifer Ong (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 67-26

Governor 2010: Brown 67-27

President 2008: Obama 73-24

California’s 21st State Assembly DistrictLEAN DEM

Geography: Merced County, western Stanislaus County (Ceres, Modesto, Patterson)

November ballot: Adam Gray (D) vs. Jack Mobley (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 49-42

Governor 2010: Brown 47-45

President 2008: Obama 54-43

Description: The statewide numbers show that this is a swingy district, and while the Republican got almost 45%, the remaining 55% was split among 4 Democrats.

California’s 22nd State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: San Mateo County (San Mateo, Redwood City)

November ballot: Mark Gilham (R) vs. Kevin Mullin (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 64-30

Governor 2010: Brown 64-31

President 2008: Obama 72-25

California’s 23rd State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Fresno, Clovis

November ballot: Jim Patterson (R) vs. Bob Whalen (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 62-31

Governor 2010: Whitman 58-36

President 2008: McCain 53-45

California’s 24th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Silicon Valley (Mountain View, Palo Alto, Sunnyvale)

November ballot: Richard Gordon (D-inc) vs. Chengzhi “George” Yang (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 66-28

Governor 2010: Brown 64-31

President 2008: Obama 73-23

California’s 25th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Newark, Milpitas, Santa Clara

November ballot: Bob Wieckowski (D-inc) vs. Arlyne Diamond (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 63-29

Governor 2010: Brown 61-33

President 2008: Obama 68-28

California’s 26th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Inyo County, Visalia, rural Kern County

November ballot: Connie Conway (R-inc) vs. Jonathan Louis Sosa (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 61-29

Governor 2010: Whitman 55-37

President 2008: McCain 57-41

California’s 27th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: San Jose

November ballot: Nora Campos (D-inc) vs. Roger F. Lasson (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 66-26

Governor 2010: Brown 64-29

President 2008: Obama 70-26

California’s 28th State Assembly DistrictLEAN DEM (but no chance of going GOP at all)

Geography: Cupertino, Los Gatos, Saratoga

November ballot: Paul Fong (D-inc) vs. Chad Walsh (NPP)

Senate 2010: Boxer 58-34

Governor 2010: Brown 57-38

President 2008: Obama 67-30

Quite unusual, though this is not the first time a “minor party” (in this case, none at all) candidate has a fighting chance against a major-party incumbent. Fong only got 54% in June, so this may be the only race in which top-two potentially worked to a non-major party candidate’s benefit.

California’s 29th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Santa Cruz, Monterey

November ballot: Mark Stone (D) vs. Tom Walsh (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 61-31

Governor 2010: Brown 62-32

President 2008: Obama 71-26

California’s 30th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: San Benito, Salinas, Morgan Hill

November ballot: Luis Alejo (D-inc) vs. Rob Bernosky (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 57-35

Governor 2010: Brown 58-35

President 2008: Obama 66-31

California’s 31st State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Western Fresno County

November ballot: Henry Perea (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 46-44

Governor 2010: Brown 53-39

President 2008: Obama 59-38

California’s 32nd State Assembly DistrictLIKELY GOP

Geography: Kings County, Bakersfield, Delano

November ballot: Rudy Salas (D) vs. Pedro Rios (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 48-41

Governor 2010: Whitman 49-41

President 2008: Obama 52-45

Description: I don’t see how Salas can overcome a 60-40 deficit, even if Democratic turnout was reduced in June.

California’s 33rd State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Most of San Bernardino County (Victorville, Hesperia, Apple Valley, Barstow)

November ballot: Tim Donnelly (R-inc) vs. John Coffey (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-31

Governor 2010: Whitman 53-35

President 2008: McCain 55-41

California’s 34th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Bakersfield

November ballot: Shannon Grove (R-inc) vs. Mari Goodman (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 66-25

Governor 2010: Whitman 60-31

President 2008: McCain 63-34

California’s 35th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: San Luis Obispo, Santa Maria

November ballot: Katcho Achadjian (R-inc) vs. Gerry Manata

Senate 2010: Fiorina 51-40

Governor 2010: Whitman 50-42

President 2008: McCain 49-48

California’s 36th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Steve Fox (D) vs. Ron Smith (R)

November ballot: Lancaster, Palmdale

Senate 2010: Fiorina 53-37

Governor 2010: Whitman 48-40

President 2008: McCain 49-48

California’s 37th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Santa Barbara, Ventura, Oxnard

November ballot: Das Williams (D-inc) vs. Rob Walter (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 52-40

Governor 2010: Brown 52-41

President 2008: Obama 64-33

California’s 38th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Santa Clarita, Simi Valley

November ballot: Edward Headington (D) vs. Scott Wilk (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 55-37

Governor 2010: Whitman 54-39

President 2008: McCain 51-46

California’s 39th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Eastern San Fernando Valley

November ballot: Richard Alarcon (D-inc) vs. Raul Bocanegra (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 63-27

Governor 2010: Brown 64-27

President 2008: Obama 71-25

California’s 40th State Assembly DistrictLEAN GOP

Geography: Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernardino, Redlands

November ballot: Mike Morrell (R-inc) vs. Russ Warner (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 48-42

Governor 2010: Brown 46-45

President 2008: Obama 52-44

Description: This district looks like Morrell’s old district, except it trades a Republican city for a Democratic one: Upland for San Bernardino. This district is also 47% minority-majority in the citizen voting age population, so June turnout was probably lower than what November’s might be.

California’s 41st State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: San Gabriel Valley (Pasadena, Upland)

November ballot: Chris Holden (D) vs. Donna Lowe (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 51-42

Governor 2010: Brown 53-40

President 2008: Obama 60-37

California’s 42nd State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Hemet, Palm Desert, Yucca Valley

November ballot: Brian Nestande (R-inc) vs. Anthony Orozco (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 55-37

Governor 2010: Whitman 52-39

President 2008: McCain 52-45

California’s 43rd State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Burbank, Glendale

November ballot: Mike Gatto (D-inc) vs. Greg Krikorian (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 59-33

Governor 2010: Brown 59-33

President 2008: Obama 67-29

California’s 44th State Assembly DistrictLIKELY GOP

Geography: Oxnard, Thousand Oaks

November ballot: Jeff Gorell (R-inc) vs. Eileen MacEnery (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 49-44

Governor 2010: Whitman 49-44

President 2008: Obama 55-43

Description: The addition of Oxnard shifted this district from a small Republican registration advantage to a slight Democratic registration. Gorell is moderate and has received the teachers’ union endorsement, so he shouldn’t have much trouble holding this district.

California’s 45th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Western San Fernando Valley

November ballot: Bob Blumenfield (D-inc) vs. Chris Kolski (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 55-38

Governor 2010: Brown 55-39

President 2008: Obama 64-33

California’s 46th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Western San Fernando Valley

November ballot: Adrin Nazarian (D) vs. Jay Stern (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 66-26

Governor 2010: Brown 67-27

President 2008: Obama 73-23

California’s 47th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Fontana, Rialto, San Bernardino

November ballot: Joe Baca, Jr. (D) vs. Cheryl R. Brown (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 60-30

Governor 2010: Brown 61-29

President 2008: Obama 67-29

California’s 48th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Baldwin Park, West Covina, Glendora

November ballot: Roger Hernandez (D-inc) vs. Joe M. Gardner (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 53-37

Governor 2010: Brown 56-35

President 2008: Obama 61-36

California’s 49th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Alhambra, El Monte, Monterey Park*

November ballot: Ed Chau (D) vs. Matthew Lin (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 54-37

Governor 2010: Brown 55-37

President 2008: Obama 60-36

*This is the only majority-Asian district in all of the California U.S. House, Senate, and Assembly districts in population and voting-age population (VAP), and almost majority-Asian citizen VAP. Have there been any other majority-Asian districts outside of Hawaii?

California’s 50th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: West Side L.A. (Beverly Hills, Malibu, Santa Monica, West Hollywood)

November ballot: Betsy Butler (D-inc) vs. Richard Bloom (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 67-28

Governor 2010: Brown 66-29

President 2008: Obama 74-23

Description: Butler, who barely won in a Beach Cities-centric district in 2010, moved to this West Side-centric district and will face the mayor of Santa Monica. Her other option was the very swingy 66th district, so her chances are nominally better here.

California’s 51st State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Downtown L.A.

November ballot: Jimmy Gomez (D) vs. Luis Lopez (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 77-15

Governor 2010: Brown 77-15

President 2008: Obama 79-17

California’s 52nd State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Chino, Ontario, Pomona

November ballot: Norma Torres (D-inc) vs. Kenny Coble (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 57-37

Governor 2010: Brown 56-35

President 2008: Obama 63-34

California’s 53rd State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Downtown L.A., Huntington Park

November ballot: John Pérez (D-inc) vs. Jose Aguilar (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 76-14

Governor 2010: Brown 77-15

President 2008: Obama 78-18

California’s 54th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Culver City

November ballot: Holly Mitchell (D-inc) vs. Brandon McCowen (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 78-16

Governor 2010: Brown 78-16

President 2008: Obama 84-14

California’s 55th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Diamond Bar, La Habra, Yorba Linda

November ballot: Curt Hagman (R-inc) vs. Gregg Fritchle (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 57-36

Governor 2010: Whitman 56-37

President 2008: McCain 50-47

California’s 56th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Imperial County, Indio, Cathedral City, Blythe

November ballot: Manuel Perez (D-inc) vs. Corky Reynaga-Emett (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 52-40

Governor 2010: Brown 54-39

President 2008: Obama 59-38

California’s 57th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: La Mirada, Norwalk, Whittier

November ballot: Ian Charles Calderon (D) vs. Noel Jaimes (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 54-37

Governor 2010: Brown 56-36

President 2008: Obama 60-36

California’s 58th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Downey, Bellflower, Cerritos

November ballot: Christina Garcia (D) vs. Patricia Kotze-Ramos (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 60-30

Governor 2010: Brown 62-30

President 2008: Obama 66-31

California’s 59th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Part of South Central L.A.

November ballot: Rodney Robinson (D) vs. Reggie Jones-Sawyer (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 86-6

Governor 2010: Brown 86-6

President 2008: Obama 90-7

California’s 60th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Corona, Riverside

November ballot: Eric Linder (R) vs. Jose Luis Perez (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 50-41

Governor 2010: Whitman 48-43

President 2008: Obama 51-46

California’s 61st State Assembly DistrictTOSS-UP

Geography: Riverside, Moreno Valley

November ballot: Bill Batey (R) vs. Jose Medina (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 50-41

Governor 2010: Brown 53-39

President 2008: Obama 60-36

Description: Here is another new Riverside district. I’m rating this a toss-up like its Senate and U.S. House counterparts due to the “uncharted territory” and “historic GOP strength” factors. However, Kamala Harris won here in the Attorney General race, so if one of the districts goes DEM, my money is on this one.

California’s 62nd State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Inglewood, Hawthorne

November ballot: Steven Bradford (D-inc) vs. Mervin Leon Evans (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 73-20

Governor 2010: Brown 73-21

President 2008: Obama 80-17

California’s 63rd State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Gateway Cities (South Gate, Lakewood, Lynwood)

November ballot: Jack M. Guerrero (R) vs. Anthony Rendon (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 66-24

Governor 2010: Brown 67-24

President 2008: Obama 72-24

California’s 64th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED DEM

Geography: Compton, Carson

November ballot: Isadore Hall (D-inc)

Senate 2010: Boxer 80-11

Governor 2010: Brown 82-11

President 2008: Obama 85-12

California’s 65th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Buena Park, Fullerton, Stanton

November ballot: Chris Norby (R-inc) vs. Sharon Quirk-Silva (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 50-41

Governor 2010: Whitman 50-42

President 2008: Obama 50-47

California’s 66th State Assembly DistrictTOSS-UP

Geography: Palos Verdes, Torrance, West Carson, Beach Cities

November ballot: Craig Huey (R) vs. Al Muratsuchi (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 47-45

Governor 2010: Whitman 47-46

President 2008: Obama 55-42

Description: Huey, who overperformed in a House district special election in 2011, is running in this swingy district, with Democratic-leaning West Carson, the slight-Democratic-leaning Beach Cities (Hermosa/Manhattan/Redondo), the Republican-leaning Palos Verdes Peninsula, and swingy Torrance. Republicans got 60% of the June vote, which seems high for a swingy district, so this district could go either way.

California’s 67th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Murrieta, Menifee, Lake Elsinore

November ballot: Melissa Melendez (R) vs. Phil Paule (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 61-31

Governor 2010: Whitman 57-34

President 2008: McCain 56-41

California’s 68th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Lake Forest, Orange, Tustin

November ballot: Don Wagner (R-inc) vs. Christina Avalos (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 61-32

Governor 2010: Whitman 60-33

President 2008: McCain 52-45

California’s 69th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Anaheim, Santa Ana

November ballot: Tom Daly (D) vs. Joe Moreno (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 56-34

Governor 2010: Brown 56-34

President 2008: Obama 64-33

California’s 70th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Long Beach

November ballot: Bonnie Lowenthal (D-inc) vs. Martha Flores Gibson (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 57-34

Governor 2010: Brown 59-34

President 2008: Obama 67-30

California’s 71st State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: El Cajon, Santee

November ballot: Brian Jones (R-inc) vs. Patrick Hurley (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 61-29

Governor 2010: Whitman 58-32

President 2008: McCain 57-40

California’s 72nd State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Westminster

November ballot: Travis Allen (R) vs. Troy Edgar (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-38

Governor 2010: Whitman 55-37

President 2008: McCain 53-44

California’s 73rd State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Laguna Niguel, Mission Viejo, San Clemente

November ballot: Diane Harkey (R-inc) vs. James Corbett (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 63-30

Governor 2010: Whitman 62-31

President 2008: McCain 53-44

California’s 74th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Costa Mesa, Laguna Beach, Newport Beach

November ballot: Allan Mansoor (R-inc) vs. Robert Rush (D)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 56-37

Governor 2010: Whitman 56-37

President 2008: McCain 50-47

California’s 75th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Escondido, San Marcos, Temecula

November ballot: Matthew Herold (D) vs. Marie Waldron (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 62-30

Governor 2010: Whitman 60-31

President 2008: McCain 55-41

California’s 76th State Assembly DistrictGUARANTEED GOP

Geography: Carlsbad, Oceanside, Vista

November ballot: Rocky Chavez (R) vs. Sherry Hodges (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 53-38

Governor 2010: Whitman 52-40

President 2008: Obama 51-46

California’s 77th State Assembly DistrictSAFE GOP

Geography: Poway, northern San Diego

November ballot: Ruben Hernandez (D) vs. Brian Maienschein (R)

Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-38

Governor 2010: Whitman 55-39

President 2008: Obama 50-47

California’s 78th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Western San Diego, Coronado, Imperial Beach

November ballot: Toni Atkins (D-inc) vs. Ralph Denney (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 54-38

Governor 2010: Brown 54-39

President 2008: Obama 66-31

California’s 79th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Chula Vista, La Mesa, Lemon Grove

November ballot: Mary England (R) vs. Shirley Weber (D)

Senate 2010: Boxer 50-41

Governor 2010: Brown 51-40

President 2008: Obama 60-38

California’s 80th State Assembly DistrictSAFE DEM

Geography: Chula Vista, National City

November ballot: Ben Hueso (D-inc) vs. Derrick Roach (R)

Senate 2010: Boxer 57-32

Governor 2010: Brown 57-32

President 2008: Obama 66-32