Election results from across the state were generally favorable, with the huge exception of Josh Newman’s recall. Most importantly, while there are still a few races left, it appears that Democrats avoided the Top2 stumbling block and have a shot at flipping the seven targeted House seats.
For better or worse, it appears that Gavin Newsom is now very well positioned to be our next Governor, with only John Cox in his way. No big surprises in the other statewide constitutional races. But one to watch will be the state superintendent race, where Marshall Tuck leads Tony Thurmond. This nonpartisan race will likely be an expensive race as the charter schools and teachers unions fight over the future of our public schools. In both his previous run and his current one, Tuck has been reliant on the charter school movement for his electoral prospects. While the position is somewhat limited, a strong charter advocate would not be a good omen for our schools.
Back to the subject of Sen. Newman, Kerry Cavanaugh in the LA Times states the truth behind the election: the Republicans wanted a do-over in a lower turnout election. Their stated pretext of the gas tax was a mere fig leaf for their reliance on the flawed recall process.
Finally, here in San Francisco, the Mayoral race still is far from decided. London Breed is winning on first choice ballots, but as Don Perata learned, that alone does not make you Mayor. Leno now leads in the latest RCV count with a big boost from the second choice votes from third place Jane Kim. Lots of votes are still out there to determine the final outcome though, so this will probably be an agonizing wait for San Francisco to finally determine who will take over for Interim Mayor Mark Farrell.
The primary election in CA 25th was close but Katie Hill prevailed by several percentage points over last cycle’s Democratic candidate, Bryan Caforio as well as two other candidates – Jesse Phoenix and Mary Palant. When I say prevailed I mean survived to the next round against incumbent Steve Knight – who took over fifty-one percent of the votes tallied. But Dems vote heavier in the general than the primaries.
The reason Katie Hill prevailed was grass-roots organization. Working with two women’s rights groups as well as LGBTQ organizations and some pretty motivated retirees (my peers); we made seventy thousand contacts in the weeks prior to the election. We actually helped increase voter turnout in the primaries by several thousand over the last cycle – which bucks the national trend.
Katie Hill uses the Bernie Sanders funding paradigm of small donor financing while eschewing corporate donations. She asks for and receives many small donations and she has been posting quarterly campaign donations that exceed all other candidates. It will be a competitive race and fun to watch.